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#1
05-03-2018, 08:15 PM
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5/5: Churchill Downs (144th Kentucky Derby Day)
CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ DERBY DAY
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD) Best Value: #2 Share the Upside 5-1 5th Next Best: #6 Once On Whiskey 2-1 3rd Exotics Use: #5 Crosswalk 2-1 WON ($7.80) Super Add: #1 Private Eye 12-1 8th 2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD) This is bad ALW bunch and there's ZERO speed. Whomever takes control can wire.. Most Likely: #1 Gray Sky 3-1 2nd Best Value: #6 Big Gray Rocket 5-1 WON ($5.00) Next Best: #2 Summer Luck 5-2 3rd Exotics Use: #3 Gizmo Jones 20-1 7th 3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Irish Freedom 7-2 3rd Next Best: #4 Hollywood Handsome 3-1 5th Best Value: #3 Langdarma 12-1 8th Exotics Use: #10 Laddie Boy 30-1 4th 4th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 Unbridled Rebel 3-1 4th Next Best: #3 Ding Dong Ditch 3-1 6th Best Value: #10 Zero Gravity 20-1 3rd Exotics Use: #12 Snap Hook 6-1 12th 5th: Opt CLM/$100k, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD) Best Value: #9 Dazzling Gem 9-2 3rd Next Best: #5 Petrov 4-1 9th Exotics Use: #6 Behavioral Bias 5-1 2nd Super Add: #1 Siem Riep 9-2 5th P4 Grid: 2: 1-2-6 (A), 3-5-7 (B), 4-8-9 (C) 3: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), 5-8-10 (C) 4: 3-4 (A), - (B), 8-10-12 (C) 5: 5-9 (A), 1-6 (B), 2-3-7-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 6th: 32nd Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Finley'sluckycharm 7-2 4th Best Value: #3 Ivy Bell 5-1 2nd Next Best: #8 American Gal 7-2 WON ($7.80) Exotics Use: #5 Lewis Bay 3-1 3rd 7th: 33rd Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD) Best Value: #8 Madame Stripes 12-1 5th Next Best: #3 Dream Awhile 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Proctor's Ledge 12-1 WON ($15.60) Super Add: #11 La Coronel 3-1 6th P5 Grid: 3: 4-6 (A), 3 (B), 5-8-10 (C) 4: 3-4 (A), - (B), 8-10-12 (C) 5: 5-9 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C) 6: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C) 7: 3-8 (A), 2-6-11 (B), 1-9 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x5 = 180 x .50 = $90 All A's: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 8th: 84th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Imperial Hint 9-5 6th Next Best: #10 Awesome Slew 5-2 3rd Best Value: #5 Outplay 10-1 7th Exotics Use: #1 Whitmore 6-1 4th P4 Grid: 5: 5-9 (A), 1-6 (B), (C) 6: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C) 7: 3-6-8-11 (A), 1-2-7-9 (B), 4-5 (C) 8: 3 (A), - (B), 1-5-7-10 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x3x8x1 = 96 x .50 = $48 All A's: 2x3x4x1 = $24 ($12 for .50) 9th: 27th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T ()P4, P3, DD Most Likely: #6 RIVER BOYNE 5-1 5th Best Value: #8 Arawak 20-1 4th Next Best: #3 Threeandfourpence 4-1 11th Exotics Use: #2 Inscom 15-1 9th 10th: 94th Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #8 Mask 4-1 8th Next Best: #12 Restoring Hope 9-2 12th Best Value: #5 Mississippi 10-1 9th Exotics Use: #7 Madison's Luna 5-1 10th 11th: 32nd Old Forester Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #10 Beach Patrol 5-2 2nd Best Value: #3 Kurilov 6-1 8th Next Best: #1 Deauville Late SCR Exotics Use: #5 Channel Maker 10-1 5th 12th: 144th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Hi-5) Always a highlight of the broadcast year, I hope everyone enjoyed ATR Derby coverage and got information that will make for a profitable weekend. Weather complications are going to interfere with the day, but Churchill's main track surface can take a punch like few others, so let's hope for conditions that are as fair as possible. Have no great additional insight to add to the hours of conversation on air and the Xpressbet Wager Guide entry. I started with Justify-Good Magic-Bolt d'Oro-Flameaway in the Guide and will adjust only slightly off that. Justify has the look of a special horse and should get every opportunity to be successful when it comes to the trip. Good Magic has done everything Chad Brown suggested since the Fountain of Youth comebacker and has looked terrific preparing for today. He and Justify are the 2 runners I think are the most likely winners. Hofburg moved up on the radar with he and Good Magic having had the best 2 weeks of training at the Downs. Bolt d'Oro has taken a lap around the track to warm up daily and has slipped in terms of win candidacy. I'm going to defensively use Mendelssohn and Audible as players with authentic credentials. Particularly appealing late runners that I'll use for exotics are Solomini, Lone Sailor, Combatant and Free Drop Billy. Enjoy Derby! Most Likely: #7 Justify 3-1 WON ($7.80) Next Best: #6 Good Magic 12-1 2nd Best Value: #9 Hofburg 20-1 7th Exotics Use: #11 Bolt d'Oro 8-1 12th Super Add: #17 Solomini 30-1 10th BASE .50 TRI: 7 with 5-6-9-11-14 with 2-4-5-6-8-9-10-11-12-14-17-18-20 (1x5x12 = 60 x .50 = $30) $0.50 Trifecta (7-6-5) Paid $70.70 Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3 Grid: KO: 10 (A), 2-5 (B), 13-14 (C) TC: 1-3-9-10 (A), - (B), 4-5-6-7 (C) KD: 7 (A), 6-14 (B), 5-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x4x3 = $36 All A's: 1x4x1 = 4 x $5 = $20 $1 Pick Three (OAK/FRSTR/DBY-14-9-7) Paid $50.87 (C-A-A) Oaks-Derby DBL: KO: 2-5-10 (A), 13-14 (B), 7-11 (C) KD: 7 (A), 6-14 (B), 5-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 5x3 = 15 x $2 = $30 All A's: 3x1 = 3 x $10 = $30 $1 Daily Double (OAKS/DERBY-14-7) Paid $16.60 P5 Grid: 8: 3 (A), - (B), 1-5-7-10 (C) 9: 6 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) 10: 5-8-12 (A), 1-7 (B), 6-9-11 (C) 11: 1-3-10 (A), 5-7 (B), 4-6 (C) 12: 6-7 (A), 5-14 (B), 9-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 1x1x5x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50 All A's: 1x1x3x3x2 = $18 P4 Grid: 9: 6 (A), - (B), 1-3-7-8 (C) 10: 5-8-12 (A), 1-7 (B), 6-9-11 (C) 11: 1-3-10 (A), 5-7 (B), 4-6 (C) 12: 5-6-7-14 (A), - (B), 9-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 1x5x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50 All A's: 1x3x3x4 = 36 x .50 = $18 13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (DD) Most Likely: #5 Lionite 7-2 7th Next Best: #9 Regal Quality 4-1 8th Best Value: #11 King Zachary 5-1 WON ($8.20) Exotics Use: #6 Determinant 6-1 2nd 14th: MSW, 3+, 1m Most Likely: #4 Corot 4-1 8th Best Value: #5 Locomotion 10-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Limitation 5-2 WON ($8.40) Exotics Use: #7 Mo Zone 8-1 6th P5 Grid: 10: 5-8-12 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C) 11: 1-3-10 (A), - (B), 5-7 (C) 12: 7 (A), - (B), 5-6-14 (C) 13: 5-9 (A), 6-11 (B), 1-7 (C) 14: 4-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 P4 Grid: 11: 1-3-10 (A), 5-7 (B), 4-6 (C) 12: 6-7 (A), - (B), 5-14 (C) 13: 5-9 (A), 6-11 (B), 1-7 (C) 14: 4-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 1-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 5x2x4x4 = 160 x .50 = $80 All A's: 3x2x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50) Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-07-2018 at 05:26 AM. 
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#2
05-05-2018, 07:48 AM
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Raining lightly at this hour and now facing the deflating prospect of steady afternoon rain..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
05-05-2018, 09:27 AM
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Quote:
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#5
05-05-2018, 09:56 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
05-05-2018, 02:47 PM
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Track now muddy
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Linear Mode
