TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I get it. What would be your definition of “wise guy horse” though? Or do you think he’s the ML second choice, because I think Bravazo and Tenfold would definitely be in the mix for that?

A wise guy horse would be an off the radar longshot that the average player doesn't see....and a horse that frequently outruns its odds.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

A wise guy horse would be an off the radar longshot that the average player doesn't see....and a horse that frequently outruns its odds.

I’m an idiot on the “wise guy” definition then. I always had it as the horse that’s gonna take way more money than expected because the people with real $$ are gonna bet it down. Like My Boy Jack was the “wise guy horse” in the Derby, or like Shirocco was the “wise guy horse” in the 2005 BC Turf.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I’m an idiot on the “wise guy” definition then. I always had it as the horse that’s gonna take way more money than expected because the people with real $$ are gonna bet it down. Like My Boy Jack was the “wise guy horse” in the Derby, or like Shirocco was the “wise guy horse” in the 2005 BC Turf.

It's turned into that by misuse.....sort of like the subversion of the word "value" in racing. A horse doesn't have value just because it's a big price.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I’m an idiot on the “wise guy” definition then. I always had it as the horse that’s gonna take way more money than expected because the people with real $$ are gonna bet it down. Like My Boy Jack was the “wise guy horse” in the Derby, or like Shirocco was the “wise guy horse” in the 2005 BC Turf.

I think you are both right. I think the definition has changed over the years. The way the term is used today, I think it is typically used on horses like My Boy Jack. And it seems like those types of "wise guy" horses practically never win. When you hear about a horse who is a decent price (5-1 or higher) that everyone seems to be touting, they seem to practically never win.

I like Hofburg a little bit, but if a lot of other people like him I'm probably on the wrong horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think you are both right. I think the definition has changed over the years. The way the term is used today, I think it is typically used on horses like My Boy Jack. And it seems like those types of "wise guy" horses practically never win. When you hear about a horse who is a decent price (5-1 or higher) that everyone seems to be touting, they seem to practically never win.

I like Hofburg a little bit, but if a lot of other people like him I'm probably on the wrong horse.

The definition hasn't changed....it's been subverted by people using the term inaccurately.

Been meaning to ask, how's your former protégé KYRIM?

[declansharbor]

Blended Citizen with a SHARP bullet workout @ Belmont this weekend.

[Alabama Stakes]

Maybe he will be the wise guy Hoss in the Belmont. The first wise guy hoss that I remember was McKenzie Bridge in the Belmont against Bold Forbes in 76. He was flying late and almost got up at a big price. I think this Belmont could be a similar type race with Justify on the engine 5 or 6 in front, though not necessarily in the 8 path. I'd be surprised if he didn't widen his lead and win by many but they could run in late.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I think this Belmont could be a similar type race with Justify on the engine 5 or 6 in front

It might be 10+ open if something with some gas doesn't appear in the entry box.