7/18: Del Mar ~ Opening Day (5th-10th)

[Kasept]

DEL MAR ~ OPENING DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Arms Runner 9-2 10th
Best Value: #5 Play Hard to Get 20-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Eckersly 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Ritzy A.P. 7-2 2nd

.50 TRI: 2-5-7 with 2-3-5-7-8 with 2-3-5-7-8 (3x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18)

Alternately, a good spot for small budgets to use the REVERSE TRI KEY strategy with late running price #5 Play Hard to Get (20-1): 2-3-7-8 with 2-3-7-8 with 5 (4x3x1 = 12 x .50 = $6)..


6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Tricky read to start late P5 with 3yo company-keepers Shivermetimbers (Broke MDN this trip/strip) & Regulate (2nd after gelding; 1st after MDN-breaker) owning styles that should play well. Divisor (6-1), who ended 3yo campaign winning a starter here in November, is 2nd/break while reuniting with Gonzalez. 'Other Baffert' Show Me Da Lute (12-1) is making first start as a 4yo and normal maturity makes him competitive..

Most Likely: #1 Shivermetimbers 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #4 Divisor 6-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Show Me Da Lute 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Giant Influence 5-1 2nd


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Brill 5-2: $1MM Md'O from Dorf anointed as summer filly to watch.. WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #4 Vangogo 8-1: Working too fast at Los Al to dismiss.. -
Next Best: #2 True Validity 7-2: With Bizwhacks below, exits Stirred (McCarthy) MDN affair.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Bizwhacks 4-1: 2nd outing for miss discussed on ATR with O'Neill.. 6th


8th: Oceanside-R, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Bulky, well matched group. Don't be shy using pricey fringe players. Artie B Good (20-1) turned in a sneaky strong soph and lawn debut down the SA hill June 8. Has drilled 19f since then for slick conditioner Morey and should stretch out with aplomb under savvy veteran pilot..

Best Value: #4 Artie B Good 20-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Texas Wedge 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Restrainedvengence 20-1 WON ($24.80)
Super Add: #10 Calexman 6-1 3rd


9th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Super Duper Cooper 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #8 Blame Joe 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Hard Fought 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Fawree 4-1 4th


10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Half lightly raced and half solid but winless types..

Most Likely: #4 Sellwood 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Goren 20-1 12th
Next Best: #12 Zipman 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Henry County 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Data Central 7-2 4th


P5 Grid:

6: 1-4-9 (A), 3-7 (B), 5 (C)
7: 7 (A), - (B), 2-4-9 (C)
8: 2-4-7-10 (A), 1-5-8-9-11 (B), 3-13 (C)
9: 6-7-8 (A), - (B), 3-9 (C)
10: 4 (A), - (B), 6-7-11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x9x3x1 = 135 x .50 = $67.50
All A's: 3x1x4x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 7 (A), - (B), 2-4-9 (C)
8: 2-4-7-10 (A), 1-5-8-9-11 (B), 3-13 (C)
9: 6-7-8 (A), - (B), 3-9 (C)
10: 4-11-12 (A), 6-7-8 (B), 1-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x9x3x6 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A's: 1x4x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (7,10/7/6/1) Paid $888.65 (A-A-A-C)


Good luck!
Steve

[moses]

As always, thanks Steve.

I had a lot of trouble handicapping this. But it looks like there should be some nice numbers that come out today. Hopefully we can all collect. Good luck all.

[moses]

Ive got a general question about betting strategy. Do you guys always back up your Pick 4 bets with daily double bets? Or do you save that part of the bankroll to bet an expanded Pick 4 wager? Or does it depend on the race card?

Today seems like a good day to bet the double to me. Probably a couple longshots that come in but I’m trying to avoid having my Pick 4 potentially blown up by a 2YO that doesn’t fire.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

Ive got a general question about betting strategy. Do you guys always back up your Pick 4 bets with daily double bets? Or do you save that part of the bankroll to bet an expanded Pick 4 wager? Or does it depend on the race card?

Today seems like a good day to bet the double to me. Probably a couple longshots that come in but I’m trying to avoid having my Pick 4 potentially blown up by a 2YO that doesn’t fire.

Don't want to hijack Steve's thread but I play mostly doubles at Delmar and Saratoga as I think they give the most bang for my buck and only need to hit a few to be successful. I will play pick 4s at Delmar also but not everyday as I try to play the ones that will seem to pay good like todays early one especially. Good luck and looking forward to seeing some picks in selection thread later.

[goodcopy]

I think the late pick 5 takeout is higher than the early

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Don't want to hijack Steve's thread but I play mostly doubles at Delmar and Saratoga as I think they give the most bang for my buck and only need to hit a few to be successful. I will play pick 4s at Delmar also but not everyday as I try to play the ones that will seem to pay good like todays early one especially. Good luck and looking forward to seeing some picks in selection thread later.

Thanks for the response. I don’t want to hijack the thread either, just wasn’t sure where else to put it. Good luck today.

[Kasept]

Wagering/Capping discussions never represent a threadjack!

[Kasept]

DMR SCR/CHG'S

[kingsize14u]

So if I'm right on the pick 4 you would have had a total of 5 tickets, Correct?
Simple A+B
C+A-A-A
A+C-A-A
A-A=C-A
A-A-A-C
These other 4 would have back-ups? Is this the usual rule of play on these? Thanks one and all for any clarification .

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by kingsize14u

So if I'm right on the pick 4 you would have had a total of 5 tickets, Correct?
Simple A+B
C+A-A-A
A+C-A-A
A-A=C-A
A-A-A-C
These other 4 would have back-ups? Is this the usual rule of play on these? Thanks one and all for any clarification .

That's a simplified approach, yes. The 'full' effect A-B-C-X tickets approach as Steve Crist laid out in Exotic Betting looks like this:

All A's

1: 7/2,4,7,10/6,7,8/4,11,12 ~ 18.00

A's with One B

2: 7/1,5,8,9,11/6,7,8/4,11,12 ~ 22.50
3: 7/2,4,7,10/6,7,8/6,7,8 ~ 18.00

A's with Two B

5: 7/1,5,8,9,11/6,7,8/6,7,8 ~ 22.50

A's with One C

6: 2,4,9/2,4,7,10/6,7,8/4,11,12 ~ 54.00
7: 7/3,13/6,7,8/4,11,12 ~ 9.00
8: 7/2,4,7,10/3,9/4,11,12 ~ 12.00
9: 7/2,4,7,10/6,7,8/1,9,10 ~ 18.00

Total: $174

EXCERPT FROM EXOTIC BETTING: http://www.drf.com/news/abcs-multi-race-betting