Rider Question

[LITF]

Today in the 4th race at Santa Anita, Surfing Star was taken back off of a 49+ pace while previously being either on or just a few lengths off of a 46 opening half. His last race he was 3 lengths off a 46.1 opening half. The two before that he was on the lead through a half in 46.2 and 46.

My question is, how do you handicap this race? Is this just an egregious error on Aaron Gryder’s part for misjudging a pace that went in 49+ all but handing the victory to the front running El Huerfano? Or is this a horse going off form? I thought all things considered he ran pretty well to make a decent race of it late. I tend to think it’s not a horse going off form and more a jockey error. But I don’t know how to judge riders since I’ve, obviously, never been in that position.

Any insight would be helpful as I struggle with these kind of races and more than often misplay them when the horses run back.

[Dahoss]

I was kind of surprised to see Gryder not make any attempt at the lead. He’s normally a rider that does his homework and knows pace dynamics. I suppose it’s possible he was told to take back, but who knows. I was also thinking maybe the 3 would be up on the lead as well, considering it was a small field.

I think you have to chalk it up to bad decisions on his part (or whoever decided to take back) and the part of Joe Talamo on the 3. I wouldn’t want to bet the winner coming out of that race but I might be interested in betting the 1 back who was last for most of the race, had no pace to run into, but did put a nice little run in around the turn.

[RolloTomasi]

That race also came on the heels of the day's opener, where the same rider got after his mount--who was on the lead--left-handed causing it to bear out dramatically interfering with the eventual winner. The horse was corrected and drifted back in to its original lane only to be struck left-handed again where it proceeded to--you guessed it--bear out a second time.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That race also came on the heels of the day's opener, where the same rider got after his mount--who was on the lead--left-handed causing it to bear out dramatically interfering with the eventual winner. The horse was corrected and drifted back in to its original lane only to be struck left-handed again where it proceeded to--you guessed it--bear out a second time.

Gryder managed to find just enough trouble in the finale today to cost his mount the win and me the pick 4. He’s had better weekends.