A Question concerning Belmont ROI

[JolyB]

As part of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, NYRA has introduced a new wager to the betting menu. Called the Festival Pick 6, this wager has a 20 cent base bet and features a low 15% takeout. It will be offered over 2 days and include the Grade 2 True North and the Grade 2 Gold Cup invitational on Friday, and the Grade 1 Woody Stephens, Met Mile, Manhattan and Belmont Stakes on Saturday.

Is there any interest in including this unique wager as one of our ROI options for this weekend's contest? Will any of our players be brave/crazy enough to give it a shot? Since we will have a $200 ROI bankroll for the Belmont, at 20 cents a pop this would afford 1000 combinations.

That sounds great until you try to spread it over 6 competitive races. A ticket that is 3x3x3x3x3x4 has 972 combinations. If you take a strong stand on two races, you could go 2x2x4x5x4x3 and use 960 combinations. But it can be a fascinating wager, especially when you can play it on only major stakes races.

Any interest in allowing it as part of our ROI? Obviously, the bets would need to be placed before the True North (Race 8 I think) on Friday afternoon.

[cal828]

I like the idea of a wager like that, but the reality of handicapping a couple of races on Friday and then several more on Saturday is a bit too much. I doubt that I will be playing it. A 20 cent pick-6 on one card on races you have to handicap anyway has some appeal, but not a 2 day one, at least in my opinion.

[ElPrado]

We like Pete. Let's not have him suicidal. 😫

[JolyB]

You both make excellent points. I'm not wedded to the idea, just wanted to see if there was any interest within our group.

Besides, I think there is a very appealing Grand Slam available on Saturday consisting of all Grade 1 races.

[RUFFIAN]

TIZ WAY OVER THIS CAT HEAD

I SHALL PURRRRCEED WITH MY USUAL WIN BETS

[Real Quiet]

If I had to break down 972 combinations including scratches I think El Prado would have to send me all the coffee in Columbia.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

If I had to break down 972 combinations including scratches I think El Prado would have to send me all the coffee in Columbia.

Well, there wouldn't be 972 individual tickets, probably only 1 or 2. Kind of like scoring a pick 4, only with 2 more legs. However, your point about scratches is very well taken, since you don't know when you make the bet on Friday which horses on the Saturday segments will be scratched. There could be many more scratches than usual, and they require the scorer to figure out who was the PTF. That can be a genuine nuisance for the scorer.

All in all, there seem to be a number of good reasons not to include this wager in our menu. Thanks for the reactions.

[Real Quiet]

If you do it for fun or profit please post your picks here just to see how it could turn out.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

If you do it for fun or profit please post your picks here just to see how it could turn out.

OK Pete, I'll keep that in mind. I need to do some serious 'capping before deciding whether to plunk some $$ down on an ADW account, but it could be a useful exercise just to put a ticket (or two) together. I know that I'll have some difficulty with the Gold Cup, because I have a strong rooting interest in Red Knight, but think that he will be facing a severe class test no matter how much he may love the distance.

[DonGuido]

Well, our rules say we can play any wager that you would play at a track window of OTB. That means Joly's thoughts on playing this wager are acceptable. That said, I will yield to RQ who I believe has expressed slight consternation in taking this on. Correct me if I'm wrong, but few if any would venture into such a mind bending bet. Thus, I take it we will not officially be accepting the NYRA Festival Pick 6 wager. You can go back to sleep now RQ if you like!

[Real Quiet]

Well Don. I will correct you. You are wrong. I did not express consternation about the wager. To me it makes little difference on scoring wagers. I have an App to help me when I run into problems scoring difficult wagers. It is available on Google Play and is called a Joly / Cal culator and so far has answered all my
queries when I get stuck.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

Well Don. I will correct you. You are wrong. I did not express consternation about the wager. To me it makes little difference on scoring wagers. I have an App to help me when I run into problems scoring difficult wagers. It is available on Google Play and is called a Joly / Cal culator and so far has answered all my
queries when I get stuck.

Apologies RQ, bring on the wager if anyone is so inclined. Now I'll go back to sleep.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

If you do it for fun or profit please post your picks here just to see how it could turn out.

OK, RQ - you talked me into it - as you can see, it didn't take very much persuasion. This is definitely NOT my ROI, and I'm probably not going to play it for profit since I'm concerned that there are a couple of other viable contenders I couldn't include. The more I looked at the True North and the Woody Stephens, the tougher they appeared. But, within the constraints of a $200 bankroll, here are my A and B tickets. We'll see how it works out. Very dependent on Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan. I think he merits it.

Ticket #1: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,8,9 // 1,2,3,4,7 // 8 // 9,10 = $120
Ticket #2: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,9 // 2,3,4,7 // 10 // 9,10 = $76.80

Totals: $120 + $76.80 = $196.80

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

OK, RQ - you talked me into it - as you can see, it didn't take very much persuasion. This is definitely NOT my ROI, and I'm probably not going to play it for profit since I'm concerned that there are a couple of other viable contenders I couldn't include. The more I looked at the True North and the Woody Stephens, the tougher they appeared. But, within the constraints of a $200 bankroll, here are my A and B tickets. We'll see how it works out. Very dependent on Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan. I think he merits it.

Ticket #1: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,8,9 // 1,2,3,4,7 // 8 // 9,10 = $120
Ticket #2: 3,7,8 // 4,6,8,9 // 1,2,4,9 // 2,3,4,7 // 10 // 9,10 = $76.80

Totals: $120 + $76.80 = $196.80

All I can say is, this is why I call you the professor. Good luck but are playing this with real money? If you nail it and you didn't you'll be kicking yourself all the way to Boston and back.

[cal828]

Here is my stab at it and no I'm not playing for real either and not my entry in this week's contest.

3,7,8//4,6,8,9//1,4,9//2,3,9//8//6,7,8,9,10=$108

3,7,8//4,6,7,9//2,4,9//2,3,9//8//5,6,7,10=$86.40

[JolyB]

I know what you mean, Don Guido. But, I tried to keep this play within our $200 ROI limit just to see how it would work. I'm not entirely comfortable that I have enough coverage to have a good level of confidence. On the other hand, I went 5 deep in the Woody Stephens, and am sure that there are many good handicappers who would be looking at Mind Control as a single. If Mind Control does win, it would dramatically reduce the overall payoff and make me feel very foolish for including such coverage. The multi leg wagers are challenges, but they sure can cause you to second guess yourself.

And all of this is without knowing what the scratches are going to be.

[JolyB]

In the Gold Cup, the second leg of the sequence, #3 Amade came from off of the pace (they went the first mile in 1:43.66, so I use the term pace loosely) to outkick #6 Arklow for the win. Neither Cal nor I had him on our tickets, so all of that effort is in the shredder. That's one of the reasons that I don't invest $$ in pick 6 sequences, except perhaps on mandatory payout days.

Cal, sorry it didn't work out for you either. I appreciate your gameness in putting up a ticket with me. It provided a very interesting comparison. I wouldn't be surprised if you told me that the winner was the last horse that you decided to exclude from your sequence. That was certainly my case.

I thought that things were going to go well when Do Share was a late scratch in the True North, and then Catalina Cruiser won as the PTF, so I had two live wagers going, not just one. But that didn't last very long.

Onward.

[cal828]

I probably will miss other legs of the thing too, but I think that 2nd leg was the one that I had the least confidence in. Can be fun to play, but so hard to hit a pick 6, I hardly ever play one for real.