Thursday, 6/3: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 6/4/2020

Race 1- 1st #7 SO ARISTOCRATIC; 2ND #2 FIRST DAWN; 3RD #6 SMILES FROM SADIE

In an opener crying out for a fresh face, #7 SO ARISTOCRATIC comes to New York off a dull effort against
similar N2L competition at Churchill Downs. If the last shook some rust off from a 75+ day break then she can
be an early factor on the stretchout. The favorites inspire no confidence whatsoever in here. #2 FIRST DAWN
has suffered from frequent camera shyness throughout her career and now drops a notch in class off the
bench. She’ll benefit if there’s pace in front of her and her consistency is otherwise lacking in this bunch. #6
SMILES FROM SADIE has racked up 2nd place finishes aplenty in her career and now gets some needed
class relief for a high percentage barn. She has no speed, but has numerous past performances that would
earn her top honors.

Race 2- 1st #4 UNBRIDLED JOHN; 2ND #14 J’S WARRIOR; 3RD #9 BIG BOY MO

#4 UNBRIDLED JOHN is new to the barn of Bruce Brown after four starts for the now-retired Gary Contessa.
This stable is 19% with dirt sprinters off the trainer change ($4.29 ROI) and this son of Sky Kingdom gets a
needed drop back into the claiming ranks. He can be effective as a late runner in here and his jockey excelled
at the Aqueduct meet with off the pace types. #14 J’S WARRIOR was involved in a very fast pace last time
out on the slop at Churchill and now goes 2nd off an extended layoff. He looms the outside speed with the tidy
weight break and will be a major threat with anything close to his last. #9 BIG BOY MO is in for a tag for the
first time and has performed well against tougher in the past. Spotted properly today he figures to be in
stalking range from the outset as one of the choices.

Race 3- 1st #8 SHAMROCK KID; 2ND #1 BRONX BOMBER; 3RD #4 SAN JUAN DIEGO

#8 SHAMROCK KID gets the nod in a fascinating affair for hard-knocking NY breds as he figures to get a good
pace to run at off the claim and on the cutback in distance. Trainer Gary Gullo excels with claims and this son
of Dublin was rounding back into form before being taken in mid-March. His rider is at his best with off the
pace types and he figures to get an excellent setup here. #1 BRONX BOMBER is the main speed as he drops
in class for trainer John Toscano, Jr. This son of Take Charge Indy was pounded at the windows two back
when victorious then stepped up to N2X company with a solid effort. If able to avoid a pace battle, he can be a
threat from start to finish. #4 SAN JUAN DIEGO made the first move in a race that completely collapsed last
time and was wide on a day where inside paths were best. He figures to offer serious value and is another in
line to pick up pieces if the pace heats up.

Race 4- 1st #3 AINTITFUNKYNOW; 2ND #4 PORTFOLIO HEDGE; 3RD #7 DANFUSI

#3 AINTITFUNKYNOW ran two bang-up turf races to begin his career in comparison to what his rivals in here
have put forth in the past. He has a versatile running style and cozy inside post from which Irad Ortiz, Jr. can
save ground from the start. He looms the best alternative to #4 PORTFOLIO HEDGE, who figures to be a
heavy favorite for the circuit’s top barn. This son of Summer Front rallied well on debut to snag the place
dough before disappointing at 8/5 at 2nd asking when on a slow pace over a boggy early autumn turf course.
He obviously has win credentials but is not appealing from a wagering perspective. #7 DANFUSI is in many
ways the horse to beat as the controlling speed for the potent duo of Rosario and Clement as he is another
who showed real promise in 2019. This barn does well off the bench, primarily with layoff returnees sprinting,
though, and he will be a tad overbet as well.

Race 5- 1st #11 MADELEINE MUST; 2ND #7 LADY LAWYER; 3RD #2 KREESIE

The European shippers are a guessing game, but #11 MADELEINE MUST is the one to beat if she runs back
to her effort two back at Longchamp. New to the barn of Christophe Clement, she gets lasix for the first time
and figures to have a strong pace to run at late. This barn doesn’t do what it once did with Euro shippers, but
there’s too much class and back form here to look elsewhere. #7 LADY LAWYER fared well against weaker in
Britain and now joins the Chad Brown stable off the layoff. She has ample early speed and that should suit her
to American racing, and this barn does quite well with its foreign shippers. With any forward move she is a
serious win candidate and must-use in the Pick 5. #2 KREESIE has been quite effective going long and ended
2019 in fine form for the underrated Dave Donk. She is a late runner who’ll need some help up front but what
you’re guaranteed to get here is a good price on a mare who loves Belmont.

Race 6- 1st #15 HAPPY HILL LIL; 2ND #12 ANGELS AND US; 3RD #14 A D’ORO

If #15 HAPPY HILL LIL can sneak in off the AE list she is very interesting in this amazingly contentious event.
Her debut was better than it may seem at first glance, and she now gets lasix. The outside post would actually
help given her clumsy beginning on debut and the improvement she should show from her debut projects her a
major threat. #12 ANGELS AND US is an interesting price play for Patrick Quick as she gets a major upgrade
at jockey, even if Cancel opts for the top pick should she draw in. This filly has had only one chance on dirt
thus far in her brief career and hardly embarrassed herself as a 43-1 outsider. She is capable of improvement
and merits consideration. #14 A D’ORO drew the far outside and has the best and most proven form of any
entrant in the field. She looked to be in line to graduate last time out before coming up wanting late, but her
gradual improvement shows she’s inching closer to the winner’s circle.

Race 7- 1st #12 NORTHERN HAZE; 2ND #13 EMPIRE LINE; 3RD #10 LE GENERAL

#12 NORTHERN HAZE is a new gelding off the claim by high percentage conditioner Mike Miceli. He lands in
a race loaded with speed and has the best off the pace rider in the country aboard. Look for him in the late
stages at an attractive price. Of the two big class droppers, #13 EMPIRE LINE looks a tad more trustworthy
than #10 LE GENERAL in part because of the superior numbers George Weaver has with dirt sprinters racing
for tags for the first time. Empire Line was once a stakes caliber NY bred before going the wrong direction, so
tread lightly while acknowledging he is a win candidate simply from the class angle. Le General is another who
showed real potential early in his career before regressing a bit late last year. This is a discouraging move given he still has a NY bred condition, but horses are going to be spotted where they can win after the COVID-
induced break in the schedule.

Race 8- 1st #8 COUNTRY GRAMMER; 2ND #6 MYSTIC GUIDE; 3RD #5 BASQUIAT

#8 COUNTRY GRAMMER didn’t have the cleanest of trips last time out when 5th in the Fountain of Youth. He
didn’t break well and wound up wide in a race largely dominated on the front end, so a more honest early pace
should help him today. The contentious nature of this race should help him offer value as well. #6 MYSTIC
GUIDE was entered in the Matt Winn at Churchill 12 days ago, a race eventually won by fellow Godolphin colt
Maxfield. This son of Ghostzapper was most impressive in breaking his maiden at 2nd asking on the Louisiana
Derby undercard, powering clear late as the 11-10 favorite. He’s a beautifully bred sort who should improve
with each passing start, and the connections opting for this spot, with his Kentucky-based rider making the trip
shows confidence. #5 BASQUIAT was an impressive debut winner at Gulfstream and he now stretches out for
the high power Chad Brown barn. This son of American Pharoah beat a Todd PLetcher trainee whose latest
effort didn’t inspire confidence last week at Churchill Downs, so there is some question as to the strength of
that late April tilt in Hallandale.

Race 9- 1st #8 SADLER’S JOY; 2ND #5 DOT MATRIX; 3RD #1 STANDARD DEVIATION

Father Time might be catching up to #8 SADLER’S JOY, but he is the one to beat with anything similar to his
last effort. He moved prematurely last time out, a move seemingly patented by his regular pilot, and
understandably weakened late. The two-turn configuration is not his preferred trip, but if class prevails then he
will be victorious. The interesting alternative is #5 DOT MATRIX, the hard-knocking homebred from Memphis’
finest who returns off a non-effort in the Muniz. His past gate antics reared their ugly head that day, as he lost
all chance from the opening bell. His effort in the Red Smith last year was sensational when you look at it in
the context of the race, and he figures to have a major tactical edge on the late runners. #1 STANDARD
DEVIATION showed life on the turf last year for Chad Brown and now gets his first opportunity to go long stateside. He ran a surprising 2nd in the Group I in Saudi last time out and is the steady, grinding type who just
might relish the added ground.

Race 10- 1st #2 SNICKET; 2ND #9 DANCING KIKI; 3RD #1 TOWERING GAZE

#2 SNICKET moves to the weeds for trainer Christophe Clement and has a load of 2nd family turf pedigree.
This daughter of Lemon Drop Kid was shown around there on debut in Florida and now moves to a surface
over which three of her dam’s siblings were multiple winners. (Gala Award, Cherry Lodge, My Best Brother)
Expect serious improvement from this second timer. #9 DANCING KIKI returns off a layoff for the underrated
Jimmy Ryerson stable, and she showed life on the dirt throughout the winter. She is actually bred more for turf
being out of a dam who won her grass debut. She has also dropped one turf winner, and this gal is by 11%
grass sire Blame. #1 TOWERING GAZE is loaded with turf pedigree as three of her siblings are grass
winners. She is by Gio POnti, a 10% debut sire and she’ll offer value in a bulky field where contention runs
quite deep.

[asudevil]

SB:

Thanks for doing this. Always admired NT's approach to the game.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by asudevil

SB: Thanks for doing this. Always admired NT's approach to the game.

Thanks go to Nick.. ATR just sponsoring his effort.

[Kasept]

Thursday’s Belmont Scratches

1st - 6-7...
2nd - 12...
3rd - 7...
4th - 2-4-13-14-15-16...
5th - 9-10-12-13-14...
6th - 5-10-16...
7th - 3-11-14...
9th - 14-15...
10th - 13-14