Saturday, 6/6: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 6/6/2020

Race 1- 1 st #7 NO DISTORTION 2 ND #2 GETOFFMYBACK 3 RD #6 O SHEA CAN U SEE

#7 NO DISTORTION drops in class for new trainer Rob Atras, who is 26% with dirt sprinters off barn changes
($2.34 ROI). This late running son of Distorted Humor was up against it pace-wise last time out at Oaklawn
and now lands at an ideal class level in a race where he should get a decent pace setup. #2
GETOFFMYBACK was claimed last time out when he set a slow pace before drawing off late as a prohibitive
favorite. He is the speed of the speed today but figures to meet some early resistance. This barn has not
been on a good run off the claim and you’ll get no value here, so it’s wise to take a critical approach. #6 O
SHEA CAN U SEE goes first off a claim by Linda Rice after chugging home second against similar in February
at Aqueduct. The powerful Rice barn is 4 of its last 6 with dirt sprinters first off the claim, and this son of Curlin
is another who’ll benefit if the pace heats up today.

Race 2- 1 st #5 JUST FOR ONE DAY 2 ND #4 STANDUP 3 RD #11 MY ECLAIR

Jockey Joel Rosario is a magician when it comes to turf sprinting and #5 JUST FOR ONE DAY has him back
in the irons today. This son of Will Take Charge was no factor going long last time out off his maiden win and
is now in a far more realistic spot in terms of distance, surface and class. He will be best served by rating and
pouncing late with a good amount of pace signed up. #4 STANDUP is a late runner who wound up inside
rallying last time out in his final outing of 2019. The blinkers should keep in touch more early today and he is
another who’ll benefit if the early gallop is spirited. He also seems to be spotted perfectly from a class
perspective. #11 MY ÉCLAIR is the one to catch from the outside for trainer Mike Stidham as this gelding set
a robust pace and held sway last time out at Tampa Bay Downs. He has shown serious ability in his two turf
sprints and has the right running style to be successful in here.

Race 3- 1 st #4 PARDSY 2 ND #5 DREAMS OF TOMORROW 3 RD #6 FIRST LINE

#4 PARDSY is a firster by Flatter, whose progeny win at a 11% clip. This colt worked :9 and 4/5 at the OBS
sale in April of 2019 and has trained forwardly for his unveiling. His stakes winning dam has dropped 4
winners from 5 foals to race, and it has to be considered a good sign this SoCal-based trainer has decided to
ship him across country for his debut. #5 DREAMS OF TOMORROW has the look of an overbet second timer
from a popular barn. He was a good 3 rd on debut after breaking from the rail and should benefit from the
experience. That race has not come back particularly productive as the winner faltered in a N1X here on
Thursday while the runner-up flopped at Churchill under similar circumstances a week ago. Ther’s not much to
fear for this son of Speightstown outside of the top pick, so he is a must-use on the Pick 5. #6 FIRST LINE
was highly regarded prior to his debut and wound up running into a couple of nice winners in his first two
outings. He’s now back at a distance that should suit him better. If he can show a bit more early zip it will help
his chances, as the early lead should be up for grabs in here.

Race 4- 1 st #2 HIGH TONE 2 ND #7 PETRUS 3 RD #1 DROP OF BOURBON

#2 HIGH TONE debuted on turf in an effort where his jockey did no more than show him around the Indiana
Grand lawn. He has since shown improvement on dirt for trainer Mike Maker and now changes surfaces. He
looms a pace player from the inside and should be a square price in a race that lacks a standout. #7 PETRUS
is a firster by More Than Ready out of a multiple stakes winning mare. This colt hails from the high percentage
barn of veteran Michael Dickinson, who is more than capable of having one ready on debut. Dickinson trained
Vintage Matters, a sibling of this colt who won early in his career in New York. #1 DROP OF BOURBON lost
all chance at the start of his debut when he blew the break and spotted the field a distance. He now returns off
a lengthy break as a new gelding and should be more involved early. The drop in class will also help his
chances in this spot.

Race 5- 1 st #10 KOSCIUSZKO 2 ND #5 MORNING BREEZ 3 RD #6 BINKSTER

#10 KOSCIUSZKO is a late runner who’s getting a serious upgrade at pilot this afternoon. He returns from a
mid-February victory moving back into open company and the expected hot pace figures to help his cause
today. A repeat of his last outing makes him a major player. #5 MORNING BREEZ is back in against open
company and should be in the mix early. He ran a bang-up race when 3 rd last time out in the Hollie Hughes
and his prior races against N1X competition have certainly been good enough for him to contend here.
Avoiding a pace battle will be the key. #6 BINKSTER is similar to ‘Breez in that he has early zip and has been
competitive against open company in the past. He fits here from both a class and speed figure perspective
and looks to be training well.

Race 6- 1 st #5 INSTILLED REGARD 2 ND #4 FLOP SHOT 3 RD #1 TEMPLE

#5 INSTILLED REGARD is re-united with leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr., who is on a tear to begin this young
meet. He was up against it in terms of race flow in the pace-dominated Mervin Muniz and can now be
stationed quite a bit closer to the early gallop in a race devoid of confirmed speed. This son of Arch has been
remarkably consistent on the lawn and will benefit from the class relief today to boot. #4 FLOP SHOT is the
unknown in this bunch given his European form. He met the highly regarded Sottsass early in his career and
has been competitive in group company since then. He has shown some early foot overseas and having it
would help his chances immensely in here. #1 TEMPLE is in an advantageous spot given he can show early
speed in a race very short on it. He has improved in recent outings and will have the rider back aboard who
won the Gio Ponti with him late in 2019. The inside post should afford him a ground-saving run as well.

Race 7- 1 st #8 FOREWARNED 2 ND #9 CODE OF HONOR 3 RD #1 ENDORSED

#8 FOREWARNED can light up the tote board for connections that took the 2018 Jockey Club Gold Cup over
this strip. This son of Flat Out has a classic case of “dirtied up” form given that he was on a dead rail last time
out and was too close to a strong pace two back. He is a late runner who can lay back and make one run in
here, and the setup should be there for a runner with his style. He’ll also be north of 40-1. #9 CODE OF
HONOR was nearly the champion 3YO last year when he won the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup as well
as the Dwyer and Fountain of Youth. Trainer Shug McGaughey is just 1-15 with dirt routers off 180+ day
breaks ($0.48 ROI) and this son of Noble Mission is undoubtedly being pointed to bigger objectives down the
line. He is strictly the one to beat, but not the one to bet in this spot. #1 ENDORSED joined the barn of Bill
Mott earlier this year when Kiaran McLaughlin retired and enters off a win against tough competition at
Oaklawn. He has often given the impression one turn could be his best game, and he has a versatile running
style. Look for him to stalk and pounce today as one of the serious win candidates.

Race 8- 1 st #12 SIGNIFICANT FORM 2 ND #9 ROSE FLOWER 3 RD #5 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD

No matter how you slice it, #12 SIGNIFICANT FORM is the one to beat. She has run numerous races that
tower over her competition’s best in here, and her effort in this very race a year ago would be more than
enough to earn top honors. She ended 2019 in a tough spot out west and her mid-pack finish was far from
embarrassing. This represents a huge drop in class and she figures to get a good setup with real speed lined
up mid-pack. #9 ROSE FLOWER will have to improve to win in here but had no chance with her trip last time
out and now returns fresh for a barn that has a couple of wins through the first three cards. She is a late
runner who’ll need pace help, but you’re also going to get a square price. #5 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD is
looking to get back to her best efforts from 2018 when she turned heads going 3-3 in impressive fashion. Her
2019 campaign was a debacle, and she is now looking to restart things on a cutback in distance. This strip
should suit her given her inability to relax going shorter, but she will offer little value and her last few outings
are hard to overlook.

Race 9- 1 st #11 VEKOMA 2 ND #1 FIRENZE FIRE 3 RD #10 MIND CONTROL

#11 VEKOMA is spotted perfectly for his return to graded stake company given the outside post and expected
pace scenario in this field. His 2020 debut was terrific, as he stalked a soft pace before powering clear late as
a heavy favorite. This is a Grade I in name only, as he meets a number of rivals lacking true top tier
credentials. That makes this son of Candy Ride a main contender for a barn that quietly had a strong run at
Gulfstream this winter and spring. #1 FIRENZE FIRE will undergo a career re-boot in his debut for trainer Kelly
Breen after earning multiple graded stake wins for the now-indicted Jason Servis. He has done his best work
here at Belmont and is dangerous because he can show speed in this largely paceless race. Whether he’ll be
at the same level he was for Servis remains to be seen. #10 MIND CONTROL is the field’s lone Grade I
winner courtesy of his score in a blanket finish at Saratoga last year. He has a versatile style and can sit on
top of the pace or lay back and make one run. That gives John Velazquez a number of options for this
talented son of Stay Thirsty.

Race 10- 1 st #12 FINANCIALSTABILITY 2 ND #4 TALE OF THE UNION 3 RD #11 QUINTARELLI

#12 FINANCIALSTABILITY is a late runner who should benefit from what shapes up as a white-hot pace on
paper in here. This son of Midnight Lute broke his maiden at 2 nd asking at Saratoga and has strung together a
number of solid efforts since. The time away should help him mature and his best efforts make him a win
candidate. #4 TALE OF THE UNION comes east for trainer Bob Baffert after showing serious potential on
debut back in 2018. He clearly had something go wrong that day and flopped off a lengthy break as the 7-10
favorite in his next start. He now gets serious class relief and figures to be prominent throughout given his
early zip. A return to his debut would make him impossible to beat. #11 QUINTARELLI is a late runner worthy
of inclusion in exotic bets as he cuts back in distance following a good effort against N1X company at
Aqueduct. This veteran made the first move into a collapsing pace before coming up wanting late, and can be
a threat in here with a well-timed ride.

Race 11- 1 st #6 LONESOME FUGITIVE 2 ND #7 VOODOO ZIP 3 RD #10 RED STORM RISEN

#6 LONESOME FUGITIVE was well-backed on debut for trainer Chad Brown and ran a credible race rallying
for second behind a sharp, ground-saving winner. He returns from a respite largely induced by the lack of
racing and draws a field that’s slightly weaker than par for this level. This barn’s second timers often show
serious improvement and he needn’t move forward much to contend. #7 VOODOO ZIP has the best proven
form in the field and figures to get the jump on the favorite given his tactical speed. He has performed credibly
in three straight, missing a win largely because of bad luck. This is the kind of spot in which he can put it all
together and he’ll offer some value given the presence of ‘Fugitive. #10 RED STORM RISEN moves to turf for
trainer Graham Motion, whose strong run has continued here at Belmont. This son of Stormy Atlantic is out of
a turf stakes-placed mare and has two siblings who’ve won on turf. He is a new gelding after showing some
life in a troubled debut. There’s a lot to like here, including his projected odds.

BELMONT STATS: 30-7-2-0

[knickslions2]

Solid call on Forewarned Nic. Was outclassed by top two but ran a nice third!