Sunday, 7/12: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 7/11/2020

Race 1- 1 st #4 INTO CHOCOLATE 2 ND #5 SADIE LADY 3 RD #1 FAIR REGIS

#4 INTO CHOCOLATE ran into a buzz saw last time out in the fleet-footed Lady’s Island and finished well to
snag the place dough. Her Hall of Fame trainer picked up his 7 th Belmont win in the month of July yesterday as
his barn has heated up, and this filly should get an ideal setup with speed to her outside. #5 SADIE LADY is
the one to catch, but is hard to trust given the way she capitulated readily last time out. She is quick enough to
get clear and is back at her preferred distance, but these foes don’t compare to what she beat over the winter
across town. #1 FAIR REGIS is Rob Atras’ insurance policy given she is the other entrant from his barn. This
hard-hitting veteran has not been as fond of the winner’s circle of late, but fared well last time and should be
wound tighter 2 nd off the bench.

Race 2- 1 st #6 THIN WHITE DUKE 2 ND #4 COTTON 3 RD #8 WAR CALL

#6 THIN WHITE DUKE had enough go wrong on debut to be given the nod here. He was away from the gate
poorly then forced to make a big, wide move on the turn before flattening out late. He should benefit from that
experience. #4 COTTON was purchased for 90k at the Saratoga NY bred sale last year and looks to be
training forwardly for this engagement. His dam is a half to a couple of open company stakes winners, so
there’s pedigree power here as well. #8 WAR CALL is by War Dancer, a freshman stallion who has not had a
debut winner. The dam here was a stakes winner and she has dropped a whopping six winners. The June 13
and 26 spins indicate he has some speed.

Race 3- 1 st #7 INTOXICOLOGIST 2 ND #6 WEAR MY RING 3 RD #4 DESBORDES

#7 INTOXICOLOGIST changes surfaces for trainer Charlie Baker after faring poorly on the weeds last time
out. This daughter of Central Banker is a dirt horse and should improve on the return to the main track today.
She has some speed and that’ll help keep her within range of #6 WEAR MY RING. That Todd Pletcher trainee
had no success herself on the lawn last time out and now drops in class. She has yet to show any real ability,
as her maiden win came in a race you could time with a sundial. The blinkers should only sharpen her early in
here and that guarantees a forwardly placed trip. #4 DESBORDES is another pace player as she exits a poor
effort in her first try against winners. She chased a fast pace that day before packing it in and proved two back
the front end is where she wants to be early.



Race 4- 1 st #3 KLICKITAT 2 ND #5 MITZRAYIM 3 RD #12 PETRUS

#3 KLICKITAT is the one to beat in the kickoff leg of the Empire 6 as he drops in class off a layoff for Jimmy
Jerkens. This barn has had a horrific meet and this son of First Samurai really didn’t distinguish himself as a
hard tryer last year. He should be set for his best as a new gelding, but there are red flags. Its worth taking an
extra look at the final furlong of #5 MITZRAYIM’s last start. He was rolling late in a race with no pace and
wound up being gathered in during the last 50 yards to avoid traffic. He should benefit from the extra ground
and will be a square price. #12 PETRUS didn’t have the cleanest of trips last time out and is the one you want
out of a race common among three starters in here. He had the most to gain coming out of that debut run and
should be set for an improved effort, especially if there’s pace in front of him.

Race 5- 1 ST #2 BOURBON MISSION 2 ND #8 BOURBON CURRENCY 3 RD #11 TENURE

#2 BOURBON MISSION had a lot go his way last time out when 2 nd against tougher NY breds. He now lands
in a N3L where the pace figures to boil over if the field stays intact. This son of Mission Impazible seems to
have found his way again sprinting on the lawn. #8 BOURBON CURRENCY faced tougher last time out in a
race where the pace totally held together. That obviously worked against this gelding, as he made only a
minor late move. A quicker pace at six panels is likely to bring out his best. #11 TENURE has the look of a
horse who’ll get badly over bet based on his connections. He is unlikely to wire the field from this high outside
draw, and nothing he’s done in the past indicates he’ll be effective rating.

Race 6- 1 st #10 VIOLENT POINT 2 ND #7 AMOS 3 RD #1 DANCINGWITHDAFFODLS

#10 VIOLENT POINT ran a very good race last time out chasing a wicked pace and staying in there to the
finish. She was actually coming back on a tad late to narrowly miss the bottom spot of the superfecta. This
bulky field is largely devoid of pace, and that makes this daughter of Violence a major threat from start to finish.
#7 AMOS gets a good rider change to the more turf-savvy Jose Lezcano and cuts back in distance. She made
up all kinds of ground two back in a collapsing race and would have fared better if given the outside run the
eventual winner enjoyed. #1 DANCINGWITHDAFFODLS is a trip handicapper’s nightmare as she seems to
find trouble every time and never wins. She had issues last time out and now comes back on short rest
returning to NY bred company. The inside post is no bargain, but she has simply run races fast enough to win
here and will be a square price.

Race 7- 1 st #3 PRINCE OF NEW YORK 2 ND #7 VIOLENT DELIGHTS 3 RD #2 BOBBYFROMTHEPALM

#3 PRINCE OF NEW YORK figures to get a great trip stalking a contested pace and will offer value given he
was outfinished by #7 VIOLENT DELIGHTS last time out. The former raced closer to a hot pace that nearly
helped the latter get to the winner’s circle. You want to be more forwardly placed when possible so give the
nod to the son of Cairo Prince. ‘Delights is 1-15 and has shown a lack of killer instinct on numerous occasions.
He is a late runner who is forever at the mercy of the pace, but the distance suits him and he’s obviously in
good form. #2 BOBBYFROMTHEPALM walloped a maiden field last time out and now returns for a low
claiming price. Trainer George Weaver is 3 for his last 20 with claimers on dirt exiting maiden wins ($0.53
ROI).

Race 8- 1 st #4 LEMON ZIP 2 ND #1 DYNA PASSER 3 RD #3 BEAU BELLE

The layoff is the only real question mark for #4 LEMON ZIP, who is the most accomplished at 12 furlongs in
this race. She won a 12 furlong heat against males off a layoff last year at Pimlico, and came back to fare well
going this trip on multiple occasions in New York. #1 DYNA PASSER is a half brother of the venerable
Sadler’s Joy and looks like a true 12 furlong horse if you’ll ever find one. She grinded out a game win last time
out against much weaker at 4/5 and will have to improve today, but a cozy inside draw should help as she
once again gets the riding services of her big brother’s regular pilot. #3 BEAU BELLE is part of a two-headed
monster for the barn of Tom Albertrani, as this mare exits a narrow miss going shorter. She has only gone this
trip once and was too close to the pace that day, so it stands to reason she can be effective and she’ll be a
good price today.

Race 9- 1 st #8 PIPPI 2 ND #5 DREAM CHASING 3 RD #3 MAGICAL ROMANCE

The trip #8 PIPPI endured on debut was a nightmare. She was away from the gate poorly, clipped heels early,
then was forced to make a wide move into the stretch. She gets an upgrade at trainer and jockey and figures
to be set for an improved run with that turf debut behind her. #5 DREAM CHASING is another who had
trouble last time out as she walked out of the gate in her seasonal debut. Having that race behind her should
help her improve today, and she will need to in order to down the top pick. #3 MAGICAL ROMANCE was a
touch wide when trying to rally into a pace dominated on the front end last time out. She spent the majority of
that affair many paths off the fresh inside on the inner turf and that worked against her. The rider change is
notable and she should be able to save ground today.

BELMONT MEET STATS: 238-62-39-28 $360.50