7/18: Nick Tammaro's Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 7/18/2020
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 1- 1 st #2 MOMOS 2 ND #5 HOLLAND 3 RD #3 MO MISCHIEF

#2 MOMOS is a firster by Distorted Humor, whose progeny win at a rate of 16% on debut. This colt worked
:21 at the OBS March sale and has a strong pedigree on the dam side. His gate drill should help develop
some early foot. #5 HOLLAND was 8-1 in a loaded MSW down at Churchill Downs and now has experience
on his side. This barn does well with 2YO second timers in MSW races on dirt (28%, $1.85 ROI) and that ROI
number is stout given the sample size. #3 MO MISCHIEF figures to be favored here given he hails from the
barn of Todd Pletcher. He is by popular stallion Into Mischief and is out of a dam who was twice stakes placed
in addition to having won her debut. He also worked :21 at the OBS March sale.

Race 2- 1 st #1 MR. KRINGLE 2 ND #3 WINNING FACTOR 3 RD #4 BATTALION

#1 MR. KRINGLE is priced to win by trainer Jose Lezcano as he drops into a starter allowance race for which
he is eligible solely because he debuted for a 50k tag last year. This son of Shakin It Up could have fit in the
Hall of Fame later today given the 3 rd place finish in the Pennine Ridge and simply out-classes his rivals here
by a mile. #3 WINNING FACTOR finally broke his maiden in his 9 th try on turf last time out and now faces
winners for the first time. This son of The Factor has performed well on the turf all over and merits
consideration off of the victory. #4 BATTALION grinded out a game win last time out in his first try for a tag.
He is spotted realistically from a class perspective and has a versatile running style that’ll help him stay close early.

Race 3- 1 st #1 DOMESTIC SPENDING 2 ND #7 DECORATED INVADER 3 RD #3 GET SMOKIN

#1 DOMESTIC SPENDING was ultra impressive in victory last time out wearing down a clear leader through
slow fractions. This son of Kingman came from last that day and quickened tremendously in the final furlong.
The extra ground should give him no trouble and he is the only real threat to #7 DECORATED INVADER.
That son of Declaration of War was victorious in impressive fashion last time out in the Pennine Ridge as he
came through a narrow opening inside before pulling away late. He showed versatility that day laying closer to
the pace and that might help him get the jump on the top pick. #3 GET SMOKIN is the one to catch for trainer
Tom Bush, who scored an opening day upset win with a horse going 2 nd off a layoff. This son of Get Stormy
likely needed his last and will be dangerous if left to his own devices on the front end.

Race 4- 1 st #7 LETMETAKETHISCALL 2 ND #1 BABY BOSS 3 RD #4 NO DEAL

#7 LETMETAKETHISCALL is drawn favorably on the outside given her early zip, as she can stalk and pounce
under Dylan Davis. She took the worst of it being inside setting a contested pace in her last start, and she
should be wound a bit tighter second off a layoff. #1 BABY BOSS returns off a lengthy layoff for trainer
Jeremiah Englehart, who scored a win with a class dropper here on Friday. She has a great deal of speed and
should be on the front end given the negative inside post. A return to her best efforts would make her
impossible to beat. #4 NO DEAL was a good second against a weaker field of 32k claimers when we last saw
her. This mare improved by leaps and bounds off the claim by Chris Englehart and is another who can be
within range to stalk and pounce today.

Race 5- 1 ST #4 CONGLOMERATE 2 ND #6 OAK HILL 3 RD #9 THE ANGRY MAN

#4 CONGLOMERATE is a firster by Lemon Drop Kid, whose progeny win on debut at an 11% clip. This colt is
out of a mare who won three times on the turf, and trainer Chad Brown is certainly more than capable of
having one ready at first asking. There’s one proven turfer in here that he’ll have to deal with, but this colt
figures to be ready to roll on debut. #6 OAK HILL was a good second on debut sprinting at Churchill and now
goes a mile. He should be more forwardly placed today on the stretchout and clearly has ability. Horses often
make the greatest improvement from their debut to their 2 nd starts as well. #9 THE ANGRY MAN is out of a 2
time turf winner and is kin to one turf winner. He is by Summer Front, a 13% turf stallion and is another who’ll
benefit from the added ground given the running style he’s shown in his first two starts.

Race 6- 1 st #1 RIP IT 2 ND #5 CATMAN 3 RD #6 ZIPPY BABY

#1 RIP IT is the second foal to race out of the accomplished mare Riposte, who was a graded stake winner for
Bill Mott. This colt is by Tapit, whose progeny win their turf debuts at a 11% clip and has drawn a favorable
inside post for his unveiling. Veteran trainer can certainly have one ready to win on debut. #5 CATMAN is kin
to a couple of turf winners and this colt is by a better turf stallion than either of those two. Progeny of Kitten’s
Joy win on debut at a rate of 14% and this colt lures Irad Ortiz, Jr. #6 ZIPPY BABY finished with interest in his
debut as he was up for second in a race where the pace collapsed late. He figures to benefit from the
stretchout to 8.5 furlongs and having experience at this time of year is a major advantage.



Race 7- 1 st #3 BLINDWILLIE MCTELL 2 ND #2 BINKSTER 3 RD #1 YAUPON

#3 BLINDWILLIE MCTELL has been on the wrong part of the racetrack in consecutive outings and now
returns off a brief layoff for trainer Linda Rice. This barn is 23% with dirt sprinters off 100-200 day breaks
($2.23 ROI) and this son of Posse has run well when fresh in the past. His best races would make him tough
to beat. #2 BINKSTER is a versatile son of Bluegrass Cat who can show speed if the lead is up for grabs in
the opening stages. He goes 2 nd off a layoff today and was likely hurt by a wet track that afternoon. He’s
another with enough back class to be given an extra look today. #1 YAUPON is a second timer who scored on
debut in game fashion for trainer Steve Asmussen. The third place finisher from that heat has already returned
to win and this colt has upside.

Race 8- 1 st #4 SINGAPORE TRADER 2 ND #1 HOFFENHEIM 3 RD #3 CREATIVE STYLE

#4 SINGAPORE TRADER is new to the barn of Horacio dePaz, who had a tremendous Belmont meet with 4
wins from 10 starters. New arrivals to DePaz’s barn win at a 23% clip ($2.53 ROI) and this son of Flatter
appears to be the main speed. He is not far removed from multiple efforts that would win this thing and you’ll
get a square price here to boot. #1 HOFFENHEIM is a threat given the improvement shown last time out when
wide and chasing the pace under Reylu Gutierrez. He is drawn favorably on the inside to save ground and
gets in light with Luis Cardenas aboard today. He is clearly not the horse he was two years ago, but his form
makes him a player at this level. #3 CREATIVE STYLE is a late runner who’ll benefit if there’s any pace in
front of him. He is in good form at the moment and wants every bit of the 9 furlongs, which you can’t say about
many others in here.

Race 9- 1 st #6 SET PIECE 2 ND #7 DIGITAL AGE 3 RD #9 MONARCHS GLEN

#6 SET PIECE was beyond impressive in his North American debut, as he broke poorly before circling the field
to win despite a slow pace to run at late. If he moves forward at all off of that race this son of Dansili will end
up in Grade I races, and trainer Brad Cox does well with horses off of wins. One of two real win candidates
here. #7 DIGITAL AGE goes 2 nd off a layoff after getting up for second last time out in his 2020 debut. He
should be wound tighter for this affair and he just might have a tactical edge on the top pick. His best races
last year would win this race and he represents the top connections on this circuit. #9 MONARCHS GLEN
was rallying fourth last time out behind Digital Age and will be dangerous if kept a tad closer early. This barn
is struggling of late and this gelding will need to improve to knock off the top two.

Race 10- 1 st #6 PARIS LIGHTS 2 ND #3 ALTAF 3 RD #1 TONALIST’S SHAPE

#6 PARIS LIGHTS gets the nod by the narrowest of margins given that her N1X win was far more workmanlike
than expected. She has clearly improved with each passing start and meets about as weak a group as you’ll
find in a Grade I. The fact she can rate just off the pace is a positive given at least a couple of her rivals figure
to spar in the opening stages. #3 ALTAF is taking a monstrous jump in class given she just broke her maiden
8 weeks ago at Churchill Downs. She looped the field to win going away that afternoon and will be in line to
capitalize if the pace heats up today. #1 TONALIST’S SHAPE is the classiest runner in the field given she is a
two-time graded stake winner. Those wins came in the friendly confines of South Florida, where her trainer
rules the roost. She is a question mark at nine panels and is going to be over bet, that’s why you should shop
for alternatives.

Race 11- 1 st #7 PAPA LUKE 2 ND #4 MIDNIGHT WHISKEY 3 RD #9 FARRAGUT

#7 PAPA LUKE is a third time starter who chased a hot pace before taking over and getting collared late last
time out. He can setup outside his main rival, #4 MIDNIGHT WHISKEY, in the opening stages and pounce
when ready. Any improvement off his last will make him a serious player. The aforementioned Midnight
Whiskey set a very strong pace last time out before getting caught late. He has a great deal of speed and will
need to use it given his inside draw. If left alone on the lead, he will be too much for these. #9 FARRAGUT
gets an upgrade at pilot and should be moving late today. He has remained consistent this year and just
worked well for a barn that is capable of having a longshot ready to run well.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 20/6-2-5 ~ $44.10 ($2.20)