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#1
08-28-2020, 06:11 PM
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#3
08-29-2020, 12:31 AM
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Saturday, August 29.
Best Bet: Race 8 - #6 Complexity (4/1 ML). Last November, Complexity had an eye-opening win in an optional claiming race at Aqueduct. He shipped to Santa Anita after that and was then thoroughly beaten in the Malibu. In his last three Grade 1 races, he has lost by a combined 49 3/4 lengths. So what the heck is so appealing about him in this one? Last month he returned off a long layoff to race 4-wide, close to a respectable pace, and just kept going as he entered the stretch while others close to the pace faded. That signals to me that he's ready to take on graded stakes company once more. With many of the typical dirt sprinters in here like Whitmore, Firenze Fire, and Mind Control, combined with some fresh faces like Fortin Hill and Funny Guy, Complexity should still be a nice price. Longshot: Race 11 - #8 Miss Jimmy (15/1 ML). Miss Jimmy comes to Saratoga from the Finger Lakes where she has finished in the top 2 in her last 10 races. She's 11-6-4-0 lifetime. This is obviously a step up in class for her but I don't think she's far off from this group. Flashpackinbarbie looks like the early pacesetter here but I'd be surprised if she gets an easy lead, which should allow Miss Jimmy to sit off the pace and make a late run. She seems to be begging for more distance than the 5 and 5.5 furlong races that she's run recently. She'll get her chance here. The question is whether she's good enough.
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#4
08-29-2020, 12:17 PM
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Great pick on Night Time Moses...classic Dale Romans winner there, I totally missed.
Wagered: $72.00 Returned: $79.20 Best Bet: Race 10 #5 Zainalarab - I'm guessing the 7/2 ML won't hold up but I tend to trust DA over my own instincts. Love the way this horse is working and while it may appear Always Carina is outworking her, I think if you look closely this horse is actually the one ready for the 6f dirt sprint. I think both will end up being really good, but think AC will show that next out with some added ground, most likely on the turf. Jouster is a bit scary but I think is going to need one and probably some added ground. None of the horses with a start look scary in here. Best Value: Race 8 #7 Win Win Win - I have always loved this horse particularly looking for a cutback on the dirt. I can't knock the turf experiment but this feels like about as dirtied up (although the last trip is beyond obvious) as you can get at this point. His effort in Tampa at this distance as a 3 year old competes with any of these besides the juiced up monster runs from FF, and I think the slight cutback off a trip and natural development...any improvement off that effort arguably makes WWW the horse to beat at a 12/1 ML. Couple notes on some others in here for better or worse: While Whitmore's style makes him seem like the perfect 7f horse I actually think he's better shorter plus of those exiting the Vanderbilt I prefer Firenze Fire. Mind Control to me sat the softest trip in racing and I don't like at all today. Lexitonian seems to be in fine form and is dangerous for Sisterson but I'm siding against...True Timber is another live longshot for Sisterson who probably can't win but could spice up exotics. I don't like Complexity at all in here. While I'm probably going to make the Complexity-Whitmore exacta box a stone cold lock...Complexity is coming off a soft trip huge effort and has failed to consolidate those efforts everytime prior. I suppose it's a little nuts to like WWW so much and hate Complexity so much but I think there are enough factors...Majestic Dunhill is always a threat underneath if they get leg weary late and Fortin' Hill can beat me as I think that last field/fig is suspect. So I'll try to get through this leg with WWW and Funny Guy - who I think has more to offer. I love the way he scooted home late when finally challenged last out. I realize that was also a soft trip and the waters are much deeper today but I think the last two are essentially paired up and could see something special today...a new beyer top as I suspect we may see makes him very tough today.
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#5
08-29-2020, 12:32 PM
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#7
08-29-2020, 04:22 PM
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^Thanks man, I caught the exacta and win money and live in the pick-5 but really kicking myself for not listening to you more as I used True Timber in 2nd/3rd but only snuck Complexity into the 3rd slot on tris...that's trifectas not tries...wild race I don't know what to make of but I certainly won't apologize for winners in this game.
Good luck the rest of the card. I just noticed Zainalarab scratched, not sure when that happened so not even sure where I'm at in this pick 5.
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#8
08-29-2020, 05:45 PM
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#9
08-30-2020, 12:35 AM
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Who would have thought that Complexity would pay more to place than Miss Jimmy? $6.40 for Complexity's 2nd place finish and $5.70 for Miss Jimmy are added to the totals.
Best bets: $56.00 wagered. $27.10 returned. Longshots: $56.00 wagered. $60.30 returned. Total: $112.00 wagered. $87.40 returned. Sunday August 30th. Best bet: Race 8 - #8 Harris Bay (3/1 ML). Of the horses coming out of the 8th race at Saratoga on August 2nd, I want Harris Bay. The #4 Gandy Dancing had his own issues in that race, but Harris Bay got bumped and squeezed early and was still able to finish strong, almost catching Gandy Dancing down the stretch. Harris Bay now goes for his 2nd race off of a 7-month layoff and should improve off the last performance. Longshot: Race 9 - #1 Lucky Stride (15/1 ML). If you're a believer in equibase speed figures, Lucky Stride is not only the most consistent runner of this bunch but also the clear best. She's got a career high of 117 compared to Letruska's career high of 113 and she's also recorded a 100+ equibase speed figure in her last 4 starts. I rarely use equibase numbers but this horse has me intrigued with her recent sharp workouts with stablemate Win Win Win, who came flying home to win the Forego on Saturday. I'm not enamored with any of the other horses in this race, so at 15/1, I'll take a shot on this wildcard.
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#10
08-30-2020, 12:14 PM
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Thanks hoss...
Wagered: $76.00 Returned: $103.90 Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Golden Award - What a great race this Shuvee came up...you could absolutely make a case for any and I've debated several in here...I ultimately want to lean on Golden Award. I've always thought she was really nice and while she really throws up some duds, I like her best races. This is the first time in a while that Mott seems to have her avoiding a need for at least a freshening. Clearly she wasn't ready or up for the Phipps but I felt the Summer Colony showed she is back. I realize Nonna Madeline disposed of her late but I think this has been the target all along and she'll be ready for her best today. Her last work on xbtv was a real eye popper to me...I do think she will have to prove she can rate and it's been a while/she's only done it vs much lesser...I think she's sitting on full go and hasn't shown her absolute best yet. Hoping Nonna Madeline attacks Letruska like she did her in the last and she sits just off/makes first run. Best Value: Race 7 #7 Dancingwthdaffodls - I can actually hardly believe myself for landing on her...I almost dismissed off the perfect trip/weak field for a horse who's shown she doesn't like to win...while the July 30th race has any number of angles for trip handicappers I just think they may all end up overbet. On the other hand a horse who looks like she doesn't want to win or stretch out may go overlooked. I just think she's a different horse since the last layoff...and with a few dirt starts over some subpar turf efforts preceding that she's fairly easy to dismiss. She's ran OK with an improved closing kick since though and seems to be in the best form of her career. While the stretchout might not work I think she has enough speed to find a decent spot maybe in the second flight today...note the 78 Beyer at a mile last Summer (competitive in here) came off the heels of much lesser form. Good luck.
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