8/29: Saratoga (6th-11th; X-C P5)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA ~ CROSS COUNTRY PICK 5


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: Saranac (G3), 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Good group of grassy sophs including Chad Brown import that has made very positive impression working towards US debut. Fact that he liked soft & heavy ground in France could bode well here..

Most Likely: #4 L'Imperator 5-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Embolden 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Bodecream 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Vanzzy 7-2 8th


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (X-C P5 Leg A, Empire 6, P3, DD)

Excellent Cross Country P5 starts here with what looks like a classic loaded Spa baby event. Richie Vega (#8 Jimmy the Kid) is better with 2nd timers, but note visit to town from Philly with Runhappy colt looking for shot at $100k breeder award. Working well at PRX..

Most Likely: #10 Happymac 5-2: $360k Asmussen/Helligbrodt totes gate blast in for debut.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Highly Motivated 7-2: Sharp drilling Klarman Into Mischief homebred.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Newbomb 3-1: Rail drawn Pletcher Speightstown firster half to St. Joe Bay.. 3rd
Super Add: #8 Jimmy the Kid 15-1 6th


MONMOUTH 9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 12f-OFF THE TURF (X-C P5 Leg B)

Most Likely: #8 Terry's Charm WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #9 So High 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Decisive Triumph 4th


WOODBINE 7th: Ontario Colleen, 3yo-F, 1m-T (X-C P5 Leg C, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Avie's Samurai 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Fly So Pretty 10-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Two Sixty 9-2 4th


7th: Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Whole group is separated by less than 2 lengths..

Most Likely: #3 Long Weekend 9-5 5th
Next Best: #4 Premier Star 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Wonderwherecraigis 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Yaupon 8-5 WON ($4.80)


8th: Forego (G1), 4+, 7f (X-C P5 Leg D, P4, P3, DD)

Thoroughly engaging group with countless options, but note that there isn't a ton of pace signed on..

Most Likely: #4 Funny Guy 9-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Complexity 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Win Win Win 12-1 WON ($16.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Whitmore 7-2 7th


9th: Sword Dancer (G1), 4+, 12f-Inner (X-C P5 Leg E, P3, DD)

Murky bunch and sense that the ones that go forward will decide it. Intrigue comes from Motion who shows up with a mystery horse in Pedro Cara and a fresh face might be just what we're looking for versus these usual suspects..

Most Likely: #2 Aquaphobia 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Pedro Cara 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Cross Border 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Sadler's Joy 5-2 4th


CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

SAR 6: 4-10 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
MTH 9: 8-9 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
WO 7: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAR 8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-10-11 (C)
SAR 9: 2-6-7 (A), 4-5-8 (B), 1-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

Very tricky read on this set of juvy fillies with some of the obvious firsters seemingly more turf/route meant (Always Carina/Jouster/Zainalareb). Siding more with those that have run..

Most Likely: #7 O'Gotten Girl 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Capstone Girl 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Spun d'Etat 5-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Zainalarab 7-2 Late SCR


11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f

Big balloons in the offing here..

Best Value: #4 Bustin Scones 10-1 WON ($17.80)
Next Best: #7 Midnight Surprise 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Fight On Lucy 20-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Pot of Hunny 30-1 DNF-Clipped Heels, Fell


P5 Grid:

7: 3-4 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-10-11 (C)
9: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), 4-5-8 (C)
10: 4-7 (A), - (B), 5-8 (C)
11: 4 (A), 7 (B), 9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-10-11 (C)
9: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), 4-5-8 (C)
10: 4-7 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
11: 4-7 (A), 9-10 (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[moses]

Thanks Steve. It's a shame with the weather because this card looked really good. I still like it, even if many of the turf races come off, and think this Pick 5 could be a monster. My current caveman-style ticket is well over $300 though so going to have to make some tough cuts to get it to a manageable range.

Good luck!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks Steve. It's a shame with the weather because this card looked really good. I still like it, even if many of the turf races come off, and think this Pick 5 could be a monster. My current caveman-style ticket is well over $300 though so going to have to make some tough cuts to get it to a manageable range.

Good luck!

There was only one race that was coming off, the 2nd. The other turf races are the stakes and they're on. Note the Saranac has been moved to the Mellon.

G/L!

[casp0555]

Andy stated that there would be some run up in the Sarnac

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

WO SCR/CHG'S

MTH SCR/CHG'S

[chuck60]

Awesome handicapping again!

You nailed the Pick 5 and Pick 4 (albeit with a caveman approach). Hopefully the Byk train keeps rolling through the Derby. Thanks for everything you do.

[moses]

Steve, great job but it’s sickening how close you were to that Pick 5. Great calls on Bustin Scones and having Win Win Win as an A.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by chuck60

Awesome handicapping again!

You nailed the Pick 5 and Pick 4 (albeit with a caveman approach). Hopefully the Byk train keeps rolling through the Derby. Thanks for everything you do.

Chuck.. THX but while I had a couple good ideas today, it was only the P4 that was there for the taking, at least for my play. I made a very bad decision going 3x4 when 6x2 was what was needed. I loved the winner in the last and made her a single on the P5 'A' ticket. Knew the Sword Dancer was tricky with the turf the way it was and a wide was going to be necessary. Used all 6 in the X-C in fact..

But for whatever reason I wasted the B's on the 11th when I needed them in the 10th. Got something with Bustin Scones, but the P4 paid 5k. Hope many did well, but a very deflating end to the day, especially when folding in Gary and Paul Giacopelli's filly fatally fracturing her forearm after clipping heels and falling.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Steve, great job but it’s sickening how close you were to that Pick 5. Great calls on Bustin Scones and having Win Win Win as an A.

THX Mose.. It's the P4 I'd like to have back. I was in the car while still driving to Louisville when I stopped to make the late changes, so maybe I wasn't focused enough to think it through. But I knew that the Contessa assistant was winning the nightcap and didn't react accordingly in the ticket.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

THX Mose.. It's the P4 I'd like to have back. I was in the car while still driving to Louisville when I stopped to make the late changes, so maybe I wasn't focused enough to think it through. But I knew that the Contessa assistant was winning the nightcap and didn't react accordingly in the ticket.

Whenever you have a horse that is 10-1 or higher as your top pick, I always give it a long look and so I included the 4 but couldn’t connect on the other legs. I’ve wanted to go back and look at the ROI on those picks. I bet it’s extremely good.

[chuck60]

Well, I do owe you a drink and then some the next time crowds are allowed at the track. I took a look at the CC, the P5 and then the P4 and decided to add in the C's on the 9th since you had them in the CC. YEs, a bit of a caveman, but it worked and I am grateful. Thanks again.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by chuck60

Well, I do owe you a drink and then some the next time crowds are allowed at the track. I took a look at the CC, the P5 and then the P4 and decided to add in the C's on the 9th since you had them in the CC. YEs, a bit of a caveman, but it worked and I am grateful. Thanks again.

Chuck.. That's awesome! Congratulations. Delighted to hear that and it's the second score of the week for listeners after @JeffJames59 caught the monster P5 at Indiana Wednesday. Nothing is more gratifying.

[chuck60]

Steve, I am glad that somebody took the plunge that day. I did hit the P4 that day and have been kicking myself about the P5 because I just couldn't pull the trigger (I had a $288 ticket that is still in my saved in TS just to remind me that victory is for the bold). Hopefully I can add to the forum in the coming months. Cheers!

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

Whenever you have a horse that is 10-1 or higher as your top pick, I always give it a long look and so I included the 4 but couldn’t connect on the other legs. I’ve wanted to go back and look at the ROI on those picks. I bet it’s extremely good.

Yeah I was on the fence with Bustin Scones and when I saw Steve had on top I had to throw on my pick-5. Unfortunately, having singled Chad's 5 horse in the 10th who was a late scratch....all the late money came in on Jouster and of course that burned me bad. Not sure how much less it would've paid if the post time fave wins that leg but would've been a big return on a $25 caveman ticket. Oh well...onto today.