9/15: Indiana Grand ($51K P5 C/O); Kentucky Downs (7th-11th)

[Kasept]

INDIANA DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: ALW/N2L, , 2yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Start of P5 with $51k carryover on a brutally challenging sequence starting with this juvy filly set that is nearly impossible to distinguish. Don't think you're going to be comfortable unless you've somehow covered all of them. Small budgets may have to rely on Calhoun's New Boss who shows up from successful stalk and go Texas MDN trip and lands Parker for this assignment. Scat's Choice went from Belterra MDN win to the Sorrento at DMR and wasn't embarrassed. Brad Cox offers a pair (#5 Corey; #8 Coach) that both won on debut at IND with modest figs and either (or both) could easily improve enough to contend..

Most Likely: #2 New Boss 5-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Corey 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Scat's Choice 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Coach 7-2 WON ($6.40)


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Kona Kai is 3-5, but she's 4/0-3-0 with losses as favorite at 7-5 & 5-2 last pair..

Most Likely: #1 Kona Kai 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #6 Ghosting Kim 10-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Honorable Memory 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Turn to Me Sucree 15-1 7th


7th: CLM-IN, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Versatile Wing and Wheel one of several droppers and owns distinct edge. Lauer returns well-priced In a Fog (10-1) to restricted company. Consistent Love That Surprise another that gets class relief today. Portobello's Hero figures to be on top early, a formula that aced similar 3 weeks ago..

Most Likely: #6 Wing and Wheel 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 In a Fog 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Love That Surprise 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Portobello's Hero 9-2 WON ($4.60)


8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f-T (DD, Pentafecta Hi-5)

Saturday Night even money for Cox after pair of Ellis placements at 5.5f-T and adds Lasix today (Cox 38%; $3.29 ROI). Jeff Bloom & Asmussen offer 2nd timer Mishpocha ("Mish-poochk-ah" ~ Yiddish for family) who need only improve a hair to best favorite. Misplaced NY-bred Lollygag adds Lasix after rough time visiting Saratoga. Helen Pitts firster Chakra likely needs one but has some sibling strength..

Best Value: #10 Mishpocha 9-2 4th
Most Likely: #4 Saturday Night 1-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Lollygag 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Chakra 10-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Little Bird Flash 15-1 7th


9th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD)

This is a treacherous, well-matched group. Indiana bred Timeless Rose cleared state bred ALW condition in career best effort for Granitz/Sanjur last and can surprise here v. open company..

Best Value: #8 Timeless Rose 8-1 WON ($20.40)
Next Best: #2 Liraz 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Spun Easy 3-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Tomorra 12-1 5th


P5 Grid:

5: 2 (A), - (B), 3-4-5-8 (C)
6: 1-2-6 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
8: 4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 7 (B), 1-4-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x4x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 1x3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $72 (4x3x2x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48; 1x3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24)


P4 Grid:

6: 1-2-6 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
7: 1-6 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
8: 4-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-7-8 (A), - (B), 1-4-6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x2x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $24 (3x2x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24)

$0.50 Pick-4 (1,8/8/4,5,11,12/8) Paid $54.20



KENTUCKY DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Mishko 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Hay Dakota 8-5 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Power End 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 By Your Side 5-2 2nd


8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Momentous Miss 12-1 WON ($15.00)
Next Best: #5 Train to Artemus 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Persevering 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Palm Court 4-1 8th


9th: TVG, F&M-3+, 12.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Theodora B. 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #3 Mrs. Sippy 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 English Affair 7-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Over Thinking 8-1 5th


10th: Untapable, 2yo-F, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Red Ghost 3-1 7th
Next Best: #10 La Libertee 9-2 11th
Best Value: #9 Miss Maddy 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Emro 6-1 WON ($16.80)


11th: Music City, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 Miss J McKay 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Kimari 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Finite 8-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Lighthouse 8-1 WON ($24.00)
Hi-5 Play: #6 She's My Type 5-1 10th


P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), - (B), 5-7 (C)
8: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
9: 2-3 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 3-10 (A), - (B), 9-11 (C)
11: 10-11 (A), 6-8-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

8: 4-5-7 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
9: 2-3 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 3-10 (A), - (B), 9-11 (C)
11: 8-10-11 (A), 1-5-6-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

IND SCR/CHG'S

KD SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

LATE SCR from the KD 8th.. #10 Point of Infinity Scratched - Trainer 3:39 PM ET

[moses]

Great call on Momentous Miss. I’ve scaled back so didn’t play a pick 4 or pick 5 but the pick 3 for Races 7-8-9 paid a little over $50 for 50 cents. Good luck finishing it off Steve!

[mugatea]

Ridiculously good handicapping Steve. There were so many wide open races in both of these sequences, and you managed to post the winning horse as one of your top 4 picks in each of the ten races that you gave us. As usual, we are grateful and quite impressed. Simply outstanding!!!

[casp0555]

nice work Steve!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Great call on Momentous Miss. I’ve scaled back so didn’t play a pick 4 or pick 5 but the pick 3 for Races 7-8-9 paid a little over $50 for 50 cents. Good luck finishing it off Steve!

Thx Mose! Fun afternoon even without big multis.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by mugatea

Ridiculously good handicapping Steve. There were so many wide open races in both of these sequences, and you managed to post the winning horse as one of your top 4 picks in each of the ten races that you gave us. As usual, we are grateful and quite impressed. Simply outstanding!!!

‘tea.. Thanks a lot. Was an interesting set of races and was pleased to have some good ideas. Hope you and many did well!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by casp0555

nice work Steve!

Thx Billy. Enjoyed the day. Hope you got some!

[Kasept]

Tweeted this regarding finding horses like Timeless Rose, as it's typical of how Thoro-Graph helps identify potential plays.

Timeless Rose had made a small breakthrough to a 13 in her IN-bred win, a development pattern that frequently augers for more, significant improvement. Rather than show the sheets of the rest of the field, you can see by the Form Ratings (a measurement of the field's overall TG form), it was a very competitive that wasn't separated by much. Also note in the Thoro-Pattern, she was 65% likely to run a new top (22%) or at least pair up (43%). (Thoro-Patterns are measurements of cumulative previous sequences of efforts.. here, 3yo's in the 2nd half of the year with a pair, an off effort and return to a pair. So, 2 out of 3 times, horses that run that sequence produce a pair up or new top).

Under that scenario, Timeless Rose felt like the right price key horse (8-1 ML and off at 9-1) because with that next step improvement, she was as good or better than those who were shorter numbers. And she cruised: https://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRace...=20200915&RN=9

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tweeted this regarding finding horses like Timeless Rose, as it's typical of how Thoro-Graph helps identify potential plays.

Timeless Rose had made a small breakthrough to a 13 in her IN-bred win, a development pattern that frequently augers for more, significant improvement. Rather than show the sheets of the rest of the field, you can see by the Form Ratings (a measurement of the field's overall TG form), it was a very competitive that wasn't separated by much. Also note in the Thoro-Pattern, she was 65% likely to run a new top (22%) or at least pair up (43%). (Thoro-Patterns are measurements of cumulative previous sequences of efforts.. here, 3yo's in the 2nd half of the year with a pair, an off effort and return to a pair. So, 2 out of 3 times, horses that run that sequence produce a pair up or new top).

Under that scenario, Timeless Rose felt like the right price key horse (8-1 ML and off at 9-1) because with that next step improvement, she was as good or better than those who were shorter numbers. And she cruised: https://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRace...=20200915&RN=9

This explanation is so pure. Thank you Steve. I have to seriously consider adding this to the arsenal. Take some time and really understand. I've got a few friends that swear by it and I am going to let them teach me how to incorporate it.