5/8: Belmont Park ($41k P6 C/O; Cross Country P5)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: Beaugay (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f-Inner (P6, P3, DD)

$41k P6 C/O starts here..

This may be trickier than it looks with the 4 top choices all making seasonal debuts. Pacesetter Platinum Paynter (20-1) is a notch below these, but dangerous on a loose lead. Thankful (30-1) has been a dirt filly, but she is by Pharoah who has seen 13 of his 18 stakes winners so far make their mark on the lawn and TAP sees fit to give her another green spin..

Best Value: #3 Nay Lady Nay 4-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Harvey's Lil Goil 8-5 WON ($4.30)
Exotics Use: #5 Civil Union 2-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Lemista 5-2 2nd


7th: Vagrancy (G3), F&M-4+, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

SCR #7 French Empire who goies in PIM's Skipat next week.. They better keep Sadie Lady in check up front. She's won past 6f before and could forget to stop..

Best Value: #3 Victim of Love 4-1 WON ($6.30)
Next Best: #6 Pacific Gale 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Honor Way 3-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Sadie Lady 6-1 2nd


CHURCHILL 8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

I thought there were no ALW horses out there? How did they all land in here?

Most Likely: #7 Munnyfor Ro 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Gam's Mission 5-1 WON ($17.80)
Next Best: #13 World Tour 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #12 Flown 4-1 2nd


BELMONT 8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Promising firsters make this a treacherous 2nd leg of the Cross Country and 3rd leg of the P6 C/O. Palamos (half to Mrs. Sippy) the horse to beat from Motion and if it's not her, it could be any of about 6. Tetella (10-1) debuts from rail for Cox with a grassy page and looks well prepared. Both Chad Brown players (In Italian/Infinite Potential) demand respect. Shug offers Colombe D'Oro, a $510k 4yo first time starter for Don Adam. Donk could honk with 2nd time 3yo Lilly Simone (20-1) who is kin to MSW Vision Perfect..

Most Likely: #8 Palamos 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Infinite Potential 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Lilly Simone 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Tetella 10-1 5th


CHURCHILL 9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Market Rumor 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Crystal Ball 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Singita Dreams 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Funnybet 10-1 6th


CHURCHILL 10th: Mamzelle, 3yo-F, 5f-T (DD)

A ton of pace here..

Most Likely: #2 Goin' Good 7-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Illegal Smile 4-1 4th
Best Value: #12 Navratilova 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Amanzi Yimpilo 6-1 7th


9th: Peter Pan (G3), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Great to see Sadler's Joy half brother Wolfie's Dynaghost back for 3yo debut, looking to become Ghostzapper 195th stake winner here. SCR #6 Risk Taking who committed to the Preakness Friday..

Best Value: #4 Wolfie's Dynaghost 9-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Promise Keeper 7-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Overtook 6-1 3rd


BELMONT 10th: Man o'War (G1), 4+, 11f-Inner (DD)

As Nick Tammaro stressed Friday on ATR, Saez & Field Pass look like a major threat to wire this nice group..

Most Likely: #7 Field Pass 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Sovereign 8-5 7th
Best Value: #5 Channel Cat 10-1 WON ($18.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Ziyad 6-1 6TH


CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

CD 8: 7-10-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
BEL 8: 7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
CD 9: 1-10 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)
CD 10: 2-3 (A), 4-7-12 (B), - (C)
BEL 10: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (9th: 3-4): 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #2 Rastafara 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #9 Third Draft 3-1 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #1 Miss Bonnie T 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Wow 12-1 4th


P6 Grid:

6: 1-3 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
7: 3-6 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
8: 7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-4 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
10: 1-7 (A), - (B), 3-5-8 (C)
11: 2 (A), - (B), 9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x3x2x1 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2x1 = $32
Backups: $32 (2-5) + $32 (3-5) + $32 (9)


P5 Grid:

7: 3-6 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
8: 7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
10: 1-5-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
11: 2 (A), - (B), 9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x5x1 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $6 (2) + $18 (9)


P4 Grid:

8: 7-8 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
9: 1-2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-5-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
11: 2 (A), 9 (B), 1-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x5x2 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 2x4x3x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $12 (1-3) + $24 (1-4)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

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