so with saratoga coming up

[ontheoutside]

i have a few questions
i go to saratoga maybe 30 to 35 times a year
i have a budget to start meet of about 10grand
and every year i walk out of there losing pretty much all of it
i lose the majority of it on 3 types of races
2 year old races
sloppy/muddy dirt
and maiden//msw of any kind

so my questions to anyone that would like to chime in
what do you look for in these 3 catogories?
what do you look for in a 2 year old race? trainer? owner/ sire? what are the most important things to look for? maybe workouts? and if its workouts,, do you put alot of emphasas on the last workoutthey have?
what are 3 or 4 sire not including into mischief to look for when 2 year olds are racing?

what about sloppy or muddy tracks? whats the key for people to zero in on?
is it sires? is it there record on off tracks? there has to be a few sires i d think to look for when rain comes
and the same question for soft turf
what do you look for there?
are there sires to look for that soft turf wasc there thing/
what else would you look for?
thanks for reading
i hope to use anyt information to better inhance my meet

[Dahoss]

How about just avoiding those races?

There should be enough other races for you to bet.

To sort of answer your question, there is no magic formula for baby races or off track races or maiden races. There is no substitute for putting in real handicapping work. If you’re willing to put the work in, there are some things you can do to improve your understanding of some of these races a bit… but in my experience most people are not interested in the work.

Workouts are a good start in baby and maiden races but there is so much more to a work than just the number so if you don’t see the work (and know what to look for) it’s not much help. Workout reports are okay, but can be costly.

For the most part, following the money is a good first indicator in baby races. Connections play a big role as well. One thing you can look at is when the horse was sold and for what price. A horse that was sold at one of the 2 year old sales this year for a high price probably has at least a little talent….or might be quick. That doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to win, but it’s a start. Most of the 2 year old sales have websites and you can view the horses work at the sale.

Another thing I look at it is how much the sire stands for and then what the horse sold for. Obviously the Into Mischief babies are going to sell for a lot but an obscure or lesser known stallion having a baby sell for 5-10 times his stud fee might indicate some talent.

It’s not an exact science but I don’t like to see a horse have 2 or 3 gate works in a row leading up to a race. To me that means the horse isn’t good from the gate, and the trainer is trying to get them better from the gate, but thats just my opinion.

On sloppy and muddy tracks, try and focus on horses with good dirt form. So many off the turf races are bet like they are still the grass that there are opportunities.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

On sloppy and muddy tracks, try and focus on horses with good dirt form. So many off the turf races are bet like they are still the grass that there are opportunities.

This is a critical point that is often discussed on NYRA's Talking Horses pregame show. Folks will complain about off-the-turf days yet "value" (as opposed to exclusively using "price") can oft be found on these races.

In order to answer the sloppy/muddy track question, you have to consider whether the race was carded for turf or dirt. Playing turf form on sloppy/muddy dirt is a recipe for losing your bankroll more quickly.

Take a look back at your betting in off-the-turf races and see what you are playing : turf form or MTO entrants.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

i have a few questions
i go to saratoga maybe 30 to 35 times a year
i have a budget to start meet of about 10grand
and every year i walk out of there losing pretty much all of it

How much action do you put through the windows for an initial investment of $10,000? If you are generating $1,000,000 in churn, your strategy for improvement would be very different than if your churn was $40,000 for the meet.

Take a look at the types of bets being made and perhaps you will see leaks in your betting strategy as opposed to being a losing player on specific types of races.

For example, are you using structured horizontal tickets (A/B/C/X model) or a complete "box" of all horses (so-called "cave man tickets")? When you hit with your top choices, are you hitting the ticket multiple times or just once as you would with your lowest choices? Are you using the "all" button rather than cutting costs via clear outliers?

[ontheoutside]

dahoss you mentioned gate works
so
suppose i buy the program that they sell when entering the track i think it costs 5 bucks,, when looking at workouts,,,will it empahsas gate work? will i be able to ell if it was a gatw work or just s regular work? example
it might say 48.36 b so the b is for breeze
will it say 48.36 g for a gate work?

thats a interesting thought
2 or 3 gate works my thinking has been thats a good thing,, i never thought ur thinking
good sense there

and scotty yes im a sucker for pk 5 and pk 4 i usually spend betw 40 and 70 on a structured ticket

and i would say i push between 1500 and 2000 a day through the windows

and getting back to dehoss
i asked if the 5 dollar program lists the gate work
as compared to the daily racing form
i dont buy the form
but maybe i should to get tidbits like that gate work symbol

[Dahoss]

If the program you are talking about is Post Parade it lists gate works. It’s the “g.”

[ontheoutside]

what are the hot sires of today,, i know i hear into mischief,,,ive heard steve byk talk about constitution

i know kittens joy and english channell are turf

whats the [now] sprint sire these days
and dirt router sire these days?

i remember back in day more then ready java gold were mud and speightstown was sprint dont know if these still hold true

[Dahoss]

I don’t know. I don’t look at races that way.

[jnunan4759]

Don't bet races you don't like. Don't bet races you don't feel you are good at. Simple as that.

In the 2YO races, the good ones will attract money. It may not be workouts, but follow the money.

[southerndutch]

Mike Welsch’s Clocker Report is huge for maiden races. It’s really valuable when he tells you an unrated maiden outworked an older allowance horse.He also tells you how easily they went. He also can tell you who worked well in the slop or who disliked it. Definitely worth the 12.95.

[ontheoutside]

it seems i hold my own at belmont and aqu,, but when they get up here im lost,, so yes i lose alot
i dont like to not bet races up here,,,its such a short meet,,
mind you the 10 grand isnt a big deal if i lose it all in season,, id just like to improve my 3 biggest obtacles which are what i listed
and bet better when those racesa occur
im not looking not to bet races im not good at
im looking to overcome races im not good at
if that makes since

[ScottJ]

Perfect example to consider in off-the-turf value analysis : Take a look at Race 2 at Belmont today, Friday, July 2nd, an off-the-turf state-bred Maiden Claiming $40000 race at 6 furlongs. If you have handicapped this race under the new conditions and decided that Distractandattack is the horse to beat, review the dirt side of this gelding's races. Having this one in the race creates value as a bet-against.