Oaks Day Plays

[Dahoss]

Race 1- #8 Back to Gridlock
I think Chad Brown is going to have a huge weekend and I think they get their big weekend started here. This daughter of Nyquist ran like a filly who needed her first start. Was slow in to stride and was asked a bit by Rosario to stay close. She was never getting to the winner, but she split horses and really finished up well late. Very little early speed in here so I expect her to be forwardly placed and prove best in the lane.

Race 2- #9 Undervalued Asset
This future stakes winner romped in her debut and then ran into the Rusty Arnold buzzsaw Red Carpet Ready (2nd choice ML in the grade 2 Eight Belles later) in the Forward Gal. She was a good second that day and then backed up badly last time. The way she backed up I wouldn’t be surprised if she bled and shows up with lasix here. Working steady including big move at Churchill a week ago. On to bigger and better after this.

Race 5- #4 West Will Power
He’ll be too short to bet to win but I like this one a lot and do not like his main rivals at all. I think Art Collector s a cool horse but wasn’t the plan to retire him after the Pegasus? I get why they stayed in training but he was no match for West Will Power last time and as the second choice I think he’s vulnerable. I also don’t like Last Samurai at all who runs much better on lasix than off and he’s off here. I’m going to bet some straight exactas 4/ 3,5 and then the same in triples. You know Rich Strike will come with his run on his favorite track and Smile Happy should also be coming late

Race 6- #2 Didia
I think this mare is very good and it’s possible we have not seen her best yet. I’d like to see her rider keep her close because there is very little pace in here and I think if she’s ridden aggressively she can get first run on the other closers. Has improved in each start here in the US and should be a fair price.


Race 9- #9 Pauline’s Pearl
One of my favorite horses in training is Search Results but I think this is a lot to ask off the layoff. I think there’s a lot of pace in here and Pauline’s Pearl will be the one coming best late. Is probably a notch below some of these but with the setup might surprise.

Race 10- # 5 Preliminary
It looks like Irad and his agent had some options here including multiple stakes winner Cairo consort. The fact they land here says a lot. She was super impressive in her debut breaking from the far outside. She moved into contention around the turn and exploded when Irad said go. I love the confidence in running here and I think you’ll see here a little more involved early.

Race 11
I wish I had a strong opinion in here. I really wanted to bet Julia Shining but she’s not getting in. I’m going to bet a few bucks on #13 Affirmative Lady who I think is best suited to the 9 furlongs and is improving. Her last was another step up and the blinkers seemed to have her more focused. Using 4,7,9,13,14 in exotics and Oaks/Derby double

[gamblin4ever]

Nice opinions, good luck today

[moses]

Nice analysis.

I have only looked at a few races on this card. In the Oaks, I feel like everyone wants to bet against Wet Paint but don’t necessarily have a strong alternative. I would have also really liked Julia Shining in this race. I think I’m going to end up just using her. If one of the other fillies beats me, so be it but she’s going to get pace to run at, she’s going to like the distance.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Nice analysis.

I have only looked at a few races on this card. In the Oaks, I feel like everyone wants to bet against Wet Paint but don’t necessarily have a strong alternative. I would have also really liked Julia Shining in this race. I think I’m going to end up just using her. If one of the other fillies beats me, so be it but she’s going to get pace to run at, she’s going to like the distance.

I just looked and she is 7/5 right now. If that holds I can’t bet her at that.

[theguarantee]

Thanks for posting Dahoss, always like your insights.

I'll post a few opinions as well in a bit but in the upcoming 4th I'm going a bit off the rocker with the #1 Zawish. Maybe she's just a turf horse but she ran pretty well in the Tepin while kind of green and is like 12x the price of Heartyconstitution. I think that Beyer fig is ridiculously low and it sandwiches some turf runs that put her in the mix if she can translate it back to dirt. Pitts not great off the layoff and has to deal with the rail but at the given price I'm taking a little swing.

[theguarantee]

Hadn't read the thoughts until after that race but we have some similar opinions, we'll see if that's a good thing...

I too like West Will Power in the 5th and have him singled in the pick 5 - chalked out but I'd still take it, if only Zawish had a little more punch...I agree though that Smile Happy is the interesting horse underneath and maybe I will also use Rich Strike, it's a fair point.

6) I too like Didia, for similar reasons so I won't expand.

7) Obviously Munnys Gold runs her race they are running for second but I do like the cutback for Red Carpet Ready. For the amount of value you get in beating these types in multis I'll play a couple very skinny tickets in case she falters with just RCR singled in here. Fully prepared to come back with my main ticket being a pick 4 in the next.

8) Almost never do I try to get clever with an Irad horse since he's always overbet but I like Majestic d'Oro in here a little. Caravel will probably win but I was searching for an alternative and I landed here. Walsh has treated her like she's got more talent than she has shown. I like the work pattern coming in and wonder if maybe she took a nice step forward from 3 to 4 (she will have needed to and then some)...draw a line through the last at Kentucky Downs, the 5F sprint vs Twilight Gleaming was decent and I trust Irad to work a trip. Maybe the jocks will decide to be wise and not just let Caravel clear from the 11 slot, although knowing how that goes she'll probably be allowed to clear and walk.

9) I like Society in here today, I know that there is some speed signed on but I don't think any of them have the true burner speed she does. I'm hoping the plan with Search Results off the layoff is to take back a little as she's the only one I think could press her into defaulting. I like Jose on speed types like this and I think she's really going to benefit from that run in the Madison.

10) Having a very difficult time separating Chad's runners...if Papilio can fix her antics I think she might be too good but I think they should've looked for a stronger rider than Javier for her...I'll take a stab with D'Amato's filly Commanche Country. You can draw a line through the last in a joke of a wire job...she was the only one to make up any ground and the 4th place finisher returned to improve fig and win a G3. She's in the deep waters today and maybe just isn't good enough but should be a nice price at least.

11) I too have liked Affirmative Lady a bit and think she will benefit from added distance but the last just seemed so slow...I actually think Southlawn is the most likely winner in here and while she's taken some early money I'm more than happy with 7/2 or better and guessing we will at least get 5/1. I never would've thought I'd like Defining Purpose in here but I've come around to the idea that she is just a horse who blossomed at the right time. McPeek can be so random for me but I think once they pop he usually keeps them running at least for a few starts.

Good luck everyone.

[moses]

I could be wrong but the turf so far seems to be carrying speed. I’ve got a small pick 3 with Sweet Dani Girl and Lady Rockstar and a few bucks on Lady Rockstar as she adds blinkers. Not sure either of those two are good enough but could payoff.

[moses]

Good call guys. Didia was positioned well. Those horses trying to make up too much ground had no shot.

[moses]

Heavenly Sunday wires the field at 9/1 in the Edgewood.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

Heavenly Sunday wires the field at 9/1 in the Edgewood.

I wouldn't have used her at 100/1.