6/1: Churchill Downs ~ Foster Preview (3rd-11th)

Kasept · #1 06-01-2024, 10:02 AM

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ FOSTER PREVIEW DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: OC/N1X, (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Just Basking 5-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Under the Palms 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Standout Sensation 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Barbratina 5-2 WON ($8.80)

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 Bellofthebluegrass 8-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Bells Beach 7-2 WON ($6.54)
Exotics Use: #3 Soundbite 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Leaflet 15-1 9th

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, b1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Tweetster 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Merasol Sugar 6-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Mink's Palace 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Simply Enchanting 6-1 2nd

6th: Arlington (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (.20 Derby City 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Ottoman Fleet 9-5 WON ($4.16)
Best Value: #3 Smokin' T 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Emmanuel 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Chasing the Crown 7-2 2nd

7th: Aristides, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Skelly 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Tejano Twist 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Angkor 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Here Mi Song 6-1 4th

8th: Shawnee (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Scylla 5-2 WON ($4.54)
Best Value: #9 Hidden Connection 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Bellamore 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Xigera 2-1 2nd

P5 Grid:

4: 3-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-3 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
7: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 7-9 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

5: 2-6-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-3 (A), 2-5-6 (B), - (C)
7: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-7-9 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

9th: Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Might be the most interesting/difficult race of the day. Use any and all that you think have a look..

Best Value: #9 Pin Up Betty 15-1 WON ($15.30)
Next Best: #6 Buchu 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Way to Be Marie 3-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Everland 20-1 5th

10th: Blame (G3), 4+, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

With Uncle Jake, Classic Causeway & Five Star General all coming out having run Monday, pace picture morphs from hot to Frosted Departure getting loose. Cagliostro reached career top last time and needs to better that to win, but he's the nearest other speed and will get first run on the obvious players (Highland Falls, Tapit Trice, Dreamlike, War Campaign)..

Best Value: #9 Cagliostro 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Highland Falls 5-2 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Tapit Trice SCR
Super Add: #6 Dreamlike 4-1 3rd

11th: Audubon, 3yo, 9f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Lagynos 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Cugino 7-2 WON ($7.34)
Exotics Use: #5 Formidable Man 5-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Nomos 8-1 8th

P5 Grid:

7: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-7-9 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
9: 6-9 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
10: 2-5/SCR-9 (A), - (B), 1-3-6-8-11 (C)
11: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x4x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 1x3x2x5x2 = 60 x .50 = $30 (1-3-6-8-11 in 10th)

P4 Grid:

8: 5-7-9 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
9: 6-9 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
10: 2-5/SCR-9 (A), - (B), 1-3-6-8-11 (C)
11: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACA): 3x2x5x2 = 60 x .50 = $30 (1-3-6-8-11 in 10th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (7-9-2/4/5/7/10-2) Paid $114.07 (A-A-A-A)

Good luck!
Steve

jms62 · #2 06-02-2024, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ FOSTER PREVIEW DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: OC/N1X, (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Just Basking 5-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Under the Palms 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Standout Sensation 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Barbratina 5-2 WON ($8.80)

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #11 Bellofthebluegrass 8-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Bells Beach 7-2 WON ($6.54)
Exotics Use: #3 Soundbite 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Leaflet 15-1 9th

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, b1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Tweetster 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Merasol Sugar 6-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Mink's Palace 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Simply Enchanting 6-1 2nd

6th: Arlington (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (.20 Derby City 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Ottoman Fleet 9-5 WON ($4.16)
Best Value: #3 Smokin' T 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Emmanuel 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Chasing the Crown 7-2 2nd

7th: Aristides, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Skelly 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Tejano Twist 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Angkor 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Here Mi Song 6-1 4th

8th: Shawnee (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Scylla 5-2 WON ($4.54)
Best Value: #9 Hidden Connection 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Bellamore 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Xigera 2-1 2nd

P5 Grid:

4: 3-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-3 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
7: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 7-9 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

5: 2-6-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-3 (A), 2-5-6 (B), - (C)
7: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-7-9 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

9th: Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Might be the most interesting/difficult race of the day. Use any and all that you think have a look..

Best Value: #9 Pin Up Betty 15-1 WON ($15.30)
Next Best: #6 Buchu 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Way to Be Marie 3-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Everland 20-1 5th

10th: Blame (G3), 4+, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

With Uncle Jake, Classic Causeway & Five Star General all coming out having run Monday, pace picture morphs from hot to Frosted Departure getting loose. Cagliostro reached career top last time and needs to better that to win, but he's the nearest other speed and will get first run on the obvious players (Highland Falls, Tapit Trice, Dreamlike, War Campaign)..

Best Value: #9 Cagliostro 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Highland Falls 5-2 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Tapit Trice SCR
Super Add: #6 Dreamlike 4-1 3rd

11th: Audubon, 3yo, 9f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Lagynos 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Cugino 7-2 WON ($7.34)
Exotics Use: #5 Formidable Man 5-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Nomos 8-1 8th

P5 Grid:

7: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 5-7-9 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
9: 6-9 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
10: 2-5/SCR-9 (A), - (B), 1-3-6-8-11 (C)
11: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x4x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 1x3x2x5x2 = 60 x .50 = $30 (1-3-6-8-11 in 10th)

P4 Grid:

8: 5-7-9 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
9: 6-9 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
10: 2-5/SCR-9 (A), - (B), 1-3-6-8-11 (C)
11: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACA): 3x2x5x2 = 60 x .50 = $30 (1-3-6-8-11 in 10th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (7-9-2/4/5/7/10-2) Paid $114.07 (A-A-A-A)

Good luck!
Steve

Nice work Steve

Jerman · #3 06-02-2024, 11:32 AM

Adam Rice has taken me out of a few pick 5’s or 4’s. He did it again yesterday at CD

Kasept · #4 06-02-2024, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Nice work Steve

Thx Jim. Was a worthwhile endeavor and caught some OK numbers. As Jeff and I discussed on Win Using TG, Pin Up Betty looked like a beach ball. Wish Cagliostro had held on. Hope you and everyone did well.

Kasept · #5 06-02-2024, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jerman

Adam Rice has taken me out of a few pick 5’s or 4’s. He did it again yesterday at CD

Tough scenario. If you didn’t think Skelly was winning, you kind of needed to use all. As CJ pointed out on Twitter, the run up at Churchill makes that race 6 1/4 furlongs. That’s what beat Skelly.