Two at Toga (2024)

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 #13 Kings Leap 5/1 - Not sure how much of a runner this one is but arguably the debut is better than anything in here imp and the last trip was a nightmare.

Best Value: Race 7 #9 Midnight Trouble 8/1 - Obviously drawing a line through the last, not really sure what to expect today as hes a bit inconsistent...but the better efforts, particularly that race two back, would make him pretty tough today.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 7 #2 Central Avenue 9/2 - Hoping the Irad money doesn't come but I've been really high on her and with Headline Numbers in here we might get an OK price.

Best Value: Race 10 #3 Arrasou 7/2 - Just viewing as a very likely winner and not sure this one will take as much support as usual for these connections.

Good luck.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet:Race 7 # 9 Good Conduct 5/1
Best Value: Race 11 #9 Turriga 6/1

[moses]

Nice work so far. I’ll add one bet. Haven’t been able to look at much.

I’m going to bet this horse Corporate Power in the Travers. I honestly wasn’t a big fan of his early in his career but think maybe he’s ready to take a step forward and should be a monster price and suspect pace will setup for him to finish well.

[theguarantee]

Thanks Moses. You're with me on Corporate Power today. Might be more likely underneath but I think is steadily improving, could get the jump on Sierra Leone and the closers. Needs to improve and run straighter (ironically enough in a race with Sierra.

Best Bet: Race 12 #6 Timberlake 5/1 - I love this horse in here today. Think hes been begging for this turnback and some of the efforts are better than they look on paper to me. Perhaps he's just not that good, clearly has a lot of improving to do on figures but he has the tactical speed and all the makings of a classic cutback. Last chance for me in here to live up to the promise and should get a square number at least.

Best Bet#2: Race 10 #4 Society 4/1 - Don't love the vibes around Munnys Gold and think she's the only one capable of running with her early. If she doesn't have it today I think Society could be gone. Another that I think they've been fooled a bit trying to stretch and gets to do what she wants today. Maybe Vahva will run her down again but I love horses like this second off the layoff. Fully expect her to run huge and be tough to reel in late.

Best Value Race 13 #4 Corporate Power 15/1 - Mentioned above but will add I think Unmatched Wisdom is dangerous in here but think CP will be a better number and can turn the tables with added ground and expected pace. Another that might not get it done but I think is sitting on a peak effort today. Well see if he can move forward enough.

Quick thoughts on the other stakes/the 8th:

I considered making Rabaja a pick in the 8th. Liked the way he finished considering the issues he had early and don't think he ever really got comfortable. Scared of the post though and there's no telling how good Rhetorical really is. Will probably take a stab at a big price though

Sword Dancer - If Measured Time doesn't win ill be looking at the pick 4. I've never really bought into Silver Knott although I get it. I don't think Buick shipped in to run second though and I just think hes the goods. May try to get Far Bridge into second for the exacta but that might get overbet as I think everyone has the same thought.

Forego - I think Mullikin feels like the type everyone is trying to beat because of ML favoritism and maybe actually ends up the value. I think hes extremely fast and very legit. My main alternative is Cagliostro. Should be motoring late and I don't see why he wouldn't take to this turnback. Sharp spotting by Cherie IMO and would not surprise me a bit. Angkor and Gun Pilot have their merits and wouldn't shock me but think ill be sticking with my top two in most everything. Anyone else would really surprise me.

In the Allen Jerkens if Timberlake doesn't get it done I lean toward Jefferson Street and Speak Easy. I thought I would like Prince of Monaco more off his last but watching him train I didn't love...hed hardly surprise me but might be underlaid off that last trip when I needed him bad. Book'em Danno might shove me in a locker again but I don't like him at all in here today. World Record will have to prove it to me again today. Everyone seems to love Domestic Product but I don't see it at all...i think Prat likes the horse but too much being made of him "choosing" to ride for Chad/Klaravich.Kind of led me by default to Soeak Easy and Jefferson Street as my backups. I don't trust either at all but if Jefferson Street can prove that race two back was no fluke, and I think the last is a line through type race, look out. I was completely against Soeak Easy in his return race and was telling myself how smart I was for about 3/4's of that race then wow was he impressive...

Last thought I agree with Steve that the filly should not be dismissed in the Travers...i have it as Sierra's race to lose with the value on Corporate Power...but ill absolutely be using her. Cant afford to break poorly again but her "cruising speed" is incredibly impressive...she has tactical speed and has those gears that make her adaptable to any pace scenario. I think she proves best of the horses racing near the lead but gets gunned down in heartbreaking fashion late...hopefully by CP.

Good luck everyone.

[theguarantee]

Will recap tomorrow but another frustrating day...some good opinions but struggling to string them together this meet...been fruitful but feel like a lot left on the table...

Haven't had a ton iof success at this Del Mar meet but I think The Chosen Vron will continue his winning ways and I like a horse in the last...

$30 double 6/3 and will come back with like $50 win on the 3 in the last if TCV gets beat...

Liked the sprints from Highplainsdrifter ad while the last looks terrible I think it was almost too bad to be true. Really hungry field...not sure how much horse he truly is but we are getting a nice price to give one more shot with the added ground today due in part to low profile connections. Kent is very inconsistent but can still give a masterful ride now and again. Worth a shot to me but again I've been terrible at Del Mar...good luck

[theguarantee]

Got tied up but for today:
Best Bet Race 11 #3 Gallant Greta 6/1
Best Value Race 7 #3 LadyJasmine 20/1 - Takes a real leap of faith but she has numbers from last summer that make her competitive in here, maybe more if you think the Beyers were a little low like I do. Needs to find form but will be a huge price.

Good luck

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 7 #8 Queens Masterpiece 8/1
Best Value: Race 8 #8 Merry and Bright 8/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 #6 Skyler's Starship 9/2
Best Value: Race 8 #8 Emerald Forest 9/2

[theguarantee]

Best Bet Race 12 #5 Charles J 10/1 - scratched previously if you want to scroll back I like for similar reasons but mainly because I think the turf route was far and away his best rest and has muddled up form.
Best Value Race 9 #1 Moonlight Gal 6/1 - Seems like we will get a price wanted to ensure before posting based on some of the works. I just think this one is very fast and talented. Might prove too green and will have to break. Weaver overdue and Ricardo might help the price…if breaks though the rail has been good and I think it’s a talented runner so I’ll take a shot on a tough day

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet Race 12 #5 Charles J 10/1 - scratched previously if you want to scroll back I like for similar reasons but mainly because I think the turf route was far and away his best rest and has muddled up form.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet Race 11: #2 Sherbini 8/1 - Looking for a closer, not sure I have the right Casse but thought Sherbini at least figures to turn the tables on Queens MG at 7F.

Best Value: Race 13 #4 Miztertonic 8/1 - Race looks completely wide open, wanted to actually make a case for a true bomb but kept coming back here thinking that win although just against MCL by a nose fits in here. Might be ready for a small step forward today and that would put him right there at a square price.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet Race 11 #3 Rebel Red 8/1 - couldn’t have been more impressed last out and while it’s well documented he lost an eye since the last, Cherie really shouldn’t have felt compelled to enter here, particularly with Taking Candy. Think the price will be right to see if this one can overcome the new complications because this one is definitely a runner that was improving rapidly.

Best Value Race 6 #7 Get Ready to Rock 20/1 - I’m not so sure this one has that much ability but at the expected price I’m excited to give a chance. You can toss the two dirt races, I don’t think he can stand up on it. In the lone turf route he met a field that absolutely towers over these and did more running than the line suggests. Took a minor bump early and ultimately was not winning but was within a few lengths of a much better field before getting completely crushed. The turf sprint was a sizzler and he just clearly doesn’t have enough early foot to compete in those. Giving a shot today at the right level doing what he wants to do imo.

Not an official pick but I quite like Tapit Trice today. Obviously will need Arthurs Ride to regress a little but if getting 7/2 or more I’m going to take a big shot with. Looking back at the Travers I think he actually ran way better than Disarm who still has his fans. The Monmouth effort I initially dismissed a touch but watching back he just seems like a new horse. I don’t get the love I’ve seen from some sharp people on Highland Falls. I get the case to an extent but he blitzed him and showed no signs of anything but wanting more powerful through the wire. Hoping the price is fair.

[seekingthegold]

Remind me to keep my big mouth shut from now on.
I praise the guy for picking tons of winners. Then he never wins another race ever! Holy moly I apologize to anybody else following this thread. I can stop a dam freight train.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by seekingthegold

Remind me to keep my big mouth shut from now on.
I praise the guy for picking tons of winners. Then he never wins another race ever! Holy moly I apologize to anybody else following this thread. I can stop a dam freight train.

Haha you're not wrong. I am staggering to the wire this meet.
Will go through the bets and give a final tally tomorrow.
Lets see if we can find something on closing day...

Best Bet Race 8 #3 Surveillance 10/1 - Seems to be in raging form again and his best shot is pretty competitive here, not sure the pace will develop but hoping and the price will be right.

Best Value Race 11 #1 Centuria 15/1 - Child of the Moon can win buti wanted to try to find a Longshot in here as I don't think either of Chad's runners are that great. Romans on the turf at the Spa isn't usually my thing and you have to draw a line through the last...I liked the maiden win a lot though and seemed to be a progressive filly at that point. Met a very difficult group for the level and the trip didn't work out at all two back. Rosario isn't riding well but seems an ideal fit here as I think she will need to save all the ground and get a little lucky...i like getting on the Mellon as I my main theory for tossing the last is she didn't handle the tight turns that well. At the least should provide some value at potentially a very big price.

Good luck.