2/1: X-C P5 (AQU-TAM-OP); Gulfstream/Santa Anita (C2C P5; P6 C/O)

[Kasept]

AQU/TAM/OP CROSS COUNTRY P5


POST-SCRATCHES


Leg A: Tampa 6 (2:51 pm): Endeavor (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Would love to get away with top two, but 'other' Chad Venencia and redirected Ocean Club give pause..

Most Likely: #4 Saffron Moon 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #5 Breath Away 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Ocean Club 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Venencia 9-2 3rd


Leg B: Aqueduct 6 (3:17 pm): Toboggan, 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Terrific edition of this famed Morris Park standard, humorously inaugurated by John A. Morris in 1890..

Most Likely: #4 Coastal Mission 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Runninsonofagun 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Full Moon Madness 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Nelson Avenue 9-2 6th


Leg C: Oaklawn 5 (3:29 pm): MDN/OC-$, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Several here have chance, especially because Brother Tony looks like a refusenik..

Most Likely: #7 Bermuda Blitz 5-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #3 Lebombo 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Brother Tony 8/5 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Walstib 9-2 6th


Leg D: Oaklawn 6 (4:00 pm): ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Majestic Oops 4-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Xena 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Claret Beret 6-1 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #4 Lemon Muffin 5-1 4th


Leg E: Tampa 9 (4:23 pm): Tampa Bay (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Always harrowing to single in the anchor leg, but given the depth of the earlier legs, relying on Running Bee feels like the logical approach..

Most Likely: #2 Running Bee 8/5 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #3 Paros 4-1 -
Best Value: #4 Northern Invader 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Irish Aces 7-2 3rd


P5 Grid:

A: 4-5 (A), - (B), 6-9 (C)
B: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 1-3-6 (C)
C: 3-7 (A), 1-2-5 (B), - (C)
D: 3-6-10 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
E: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x5x5x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup #1 (CAAAA): 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6-9 in Leg A)
Backup #2 (ACAAA): 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-3-6 in Leg B)

$0.50 Pick 5 (4,10/1/7/3,7,10/2,5) Paid $604.75 (A-C-A-A-A)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

GULFSTREAM PARK ~ COAST TO COAST P5


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: OC/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T ($3 Turf P3, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Echo Lane 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #5 Junction Road 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Then 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Brawn 12-1 4th

$1 EXA (10/5) $29.80
$1 TRI (10/5/6) $93.70
$1 SUPER (10/5/6/7) $1,245.20


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

6: 10 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ $6.40
8: ALL (13) (A), - (B), - (C) ~ $66.80
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ $8.20

All A's: 1x12x2 = 24 x $3 = $72

$3 Pick (10/3,13/2) Paid $1,931.40


7th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Fountain of Youth/Tampa Bay Derby audition here for River Thames..

Most Likely: #1 River Thames 7/5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #3 Souper Times 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Tux 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Rolando 4-1 3rd


8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 11f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Wild assembly here. No result would surprise..

Most Likely: #2 L'Antharis 3-1 9th
Best Value: #9 Il Siciliano 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Ramblin' Wreck 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Tennessee Lamb 15-1 12th


9th: Swale, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Gunmetal can regress and win..

Most Likely: #6 Gunmetal 7/5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Macho Music 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Grayscale 9/5 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Fire Pit 30-1 4th


10th: Kitten's Joy, 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Test Score 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Charlie's to Blame 6-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #3 Maui Strong 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Enterdadragon 10-1 4th


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

6: 10 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: ALL (13) (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x12x2 = 24 x $3 = $72

$3 Pick (10/3,13/2) Paid $1,931.40


COAST TO COAST P5 Grid:

GP 10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 5: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
GP 11: 2-7 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
SA 6: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
GP 12: 3 (A), - (B), 9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4x1 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x2x1 = $24
Backup (AAAAC): 2x3x2x2x1 = $24 (9 in GP 12)


11th: Holy Bull (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Ferocious 9/5 4th
Best Value: #7 Burnham Square 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #4 Guns Loaded 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Tappan Street 3-1 2nd


12th: Forward Gal (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 JUSTINQUESO 8-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Rojo Rita 2-1 DQ'd-Last/11th
Exotics Use: #7 Eclatant 9-2 WON ($10.00)
Super Add: #11 Stunner 4-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

8: 1-2-9 (A), 3-6-10 (B), - (C)
9: 6 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-4-7 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
12: 3-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x2x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (ACAAA): 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

9: 6 (A), 1 (B), - (C)
10: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-4-7 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
12: 3-9 (A), 7-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x5x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

GP SCR/CHG'S

AQU SCR/CHG'S

OP SCR/CHG'S

TAM SCR/CHG'S

SA SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: Santa Monica (G2), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Kopion 7/5 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #1 Richi 9/5 3rd


4th: Bob Lewis (G3), 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Citizen Bull 6/5 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #3 Rodriguez 7/5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Madaket Road 5/2 3rd


5th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f-DHT (P6, P3, DD)

$54k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #7 Miss Roberts 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Word Play 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Runamileinmyshoes 5-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Cornelia Fort 12-1 6th


6th: Megahertz (G3), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P5, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Sareeha 2-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Rashmi 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #2 Big Hug 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Liguria 9-2 3rd


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

6: 1-2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x2x2 = 16 x $3 = $48


7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Pilot Commander 3/5 WON ($2.40)
Best Value: #3 Manitowish 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 See Through It 6-1 5th


P4 Grid:

4: 1-2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x3x4x1 = $36


8th: Thunder Road (G3), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Air Force Red 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Seal Team 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Packs a Wahlop 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Astronomer 6-1 6th


9th: CA-MSW, 3yo, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Berlin Wall 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #6 Letmein 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Outworker 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Chasing Ryder 7-2 7th


10th: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Jeweled Shilleglagh 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 Call Sign Seven 12-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #7 Ciro di Marzio 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Calm Sea 12-1 -


P6 Grid:

5: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x4x1x2x2x1 = 48 x $2 = $96


P5 Grid:

6: 1-2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x1x4x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


P4 Grid:

7: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x4x2x3 = $24


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

That was fun yesterday. I rarely push the 'ALL' button, but that 8th was impossible.

Hope some came along.. Paid about 1.5x the parlay.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by Kasept

That was fun yesterday. I rarely push the 'ALL' button, but that 8th was impossible.

Hope some came along.. Paid about 1.5x the parlay.

Funny Steve I always look at your picks not that I typically let it impact me much (respect your opinion as much as anyone but just how I play) but sometimes I’ll take an extra look at some you point out - I saw your turf pick 3 all and thought to myself I don’t think I’ve ever seen him use an all in all the years I’ve been looking at this site…well Yahtzee - wasn’t smart enough to tag along but great work. And that was just a small piece of a handicapping masterclass. Great work sir. Hope to meet you up at Toga this year, almost have a couple times…hope you did really well this weekend. Cheers

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Funny Steve I always look at your picks not that I typically let it impact me much (respect your opinion as much as anyone but just how I play) but sometimes I’ll take an extra look at some you point out - I saw your turf pick 3 all and thought to myself I don’t think I’ve ever seen him use an all in all the years I’ve been looking at this site…well Yahtzee - wasn’t smart enough to tag along but great work. And that was just a small piece of a handicapping masterclass. Great work sir. Hope to meet you up at Toga this year, almost have a couple times…hope you did really well this weekend. Cheers

DJ.. Thanks a lot. Key to the ALL was the narrow focus on either end of the play with Echo Lane as a single and just the pair of interests in the Kitten's Joy. At the $3 increment, certainly couldn't/wouldn't use 12 runners in middle leg if there needed to be more coverage in those races.

I think recognizing that construction opportunity was the lesson Saturday and it's not something I've done well consistently. As I said on air yesterday, I really took my time writing up the races and building the plays ~ literally 6 hours ~ and it paid off.

See you at SAR! Stop by when I'm broadcasting or wherever you see me.