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#1
03-23-2025, 12:13 PM
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Arkansas Derby
1 - Brereton's Baytown, 20-1 2 - First Division, 20-1 3 - Publisher, 6-1 4 - Bestfriend Rocket, 20-1 5 - Speed King, 15-1 6 - Sandman, 3-1 7 - Monet's Magic, 20-1 8 - Coal Battle, 7-2 9 - Cornucopian, 7-5
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 03-23-2025 at 03:11 PM. 
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#2
03-23-2025, 03:07 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
03-28-2025, 10:50 AM
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Cornucopian may win but yeesh, I don’t want to touch him near even money. His maiden win was very impressive but so many questions remain.
Out of Into Mischief so we’ve already got a bit of a distance question there and yes, he’s a half to Guarana (won the Coaching Club American Oaks but was best at shorter distances) and Beatbox (turf router), but who knows what happens when he gets into it with Speed King and Lukas’s horse. And who knows if he’s the same horse going around two turns. Thinking the pace could set up nicely for Coal Battle, Publisher or Sandman.
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#4
03-28-2025, 12:55 PM
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I totally get anyone taking a shot against Cornucopian tomorrow all things considered, however I thought that debut was truly something.
I think he'll win tomorrow and then probably be more of a bet against in the Derby. Also, not sure we got to see enough of Guarana to say for sure she was better sprinting, although I take your point there...ironically Beatbox started for Chad Brown who of all people started him out running on the dirt for a few starts and stretching him out. I wonder if those two had some soundness stuff going on, but both were pretty good. I'm not really a breeding expert but I think the damside says stretching on the dirt should be just fine with the Phipps bred Pleasant Home/Distorted Humor in there. I think that we see something similar to his debut where he runs the other speed into the ground, kicks clear and sets up the closers for underneath (same idea) - the ones you listed make sense but I think I'm going to try to get Monet's Magic underneath at a better price. This one's dam wasn't much but is pretty interestingly bred going further back. I thought this one was coming along well showing slow and steady improvement heading into the Southwest....had to be held up in a bit of traffic awkwardly when the real running began...finished up decently. Given that he didn't show any works until March and missed the Rebel it seems like pointing toward a race at Keeneland for Colebrook would make more sense. Perhaps it's as simple as a typical case of Derby Fever, but I just get the sense this is a particularly aggressive move by Colebrook making me think either they got something fixed and/or really think he's got another forward move in him.
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#5
03-29-2025, 08:12 AM
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Quote:
I wouldn’t blame you for including a horse like Monet’s Magic. If cornucopian, coal battle, and sandman are the trifecta, it won’t pay much.
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#6
03-30-2025, 07:53 AM
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#7
03-30-2025, 09:42 AM
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I came away really impressed with Cornucopian. I think he’ll win some big races. He’s my early favorite for the Haskell.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#8
03-30-2025, 09:33 PM
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Weirdest thing to me is the main reason I liked Cornu there was I thought he clearly showed ability to rate...not sure if it was JV/instructions but ultimately would've thought JV was smart enough to sense the situation/back off? Even in a loss Prat had what I thought was a brilliant ride today at SA in the 8th on Tom Horn when he broke like a rocket and backed off...came with his run and couldn't hold off the closing 8...feel like we could've seen a similar result with Cornu here if he did this, but who knows...maybe best for him long term and like you said Haskell/Travers makes sense, can back off a touch and maybe see a huge second half campaign from Baffert.
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#9
Yesterday, 07:55 AM
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I’m sure he’ll get bet heavily if he returns in the Haskell. I’d have to see who he’s up against and the question about two turns remains, as we can’t really glean much about his route ability from the Arkansas Derby. I’d guess he’ll be fine going two turns provided there isn’t an insane pace that he gets caught up in. But you never know for sure until the horse actually does it.
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