Hard Spun's Condition.......Fit Or Fatigued

[docicu3]

After reading such conflicting information including the thread here about the accuracy of media "opinion" or facts, I am left with less of a feeling of certainty about the horses condition.

Did Mario ruin him for a couple months by leaving his best effort on the track a week prior to the day he needed it or did the horse get a strong work that was part of his intended cycle.

I agree with many here that although I think you have to have savers with some of the obvious chalk I would love to key Hard Spun for a great score if I had confidence of his current condition.

What do people think????

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i think we will see when the gate opens..thats a fast work..

[Merlinsky]

Say you work like this, then come and win the race with a solid effort. Does the combination of work/race exertion this close together matter or is the recovery up to the Preakness strictly about getting over the Derby?

[tanner12oz]

i think his connections are boneheads and that is a bigger issue to get over then the workout......i like this horse alot but theres a few red flags that go up for me.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

He would have been my top pick...but, his connections & the work scared me from doing that.

[MarkyD]

I hope the condition is sharp.

This guy has to pull a War Emblem. Take the lead and grab the rail so Street Sense has to go around him. War Emblem forced Perfect Drift to go outside of him, cause I rememebr Perfect Drift comming hard along the rail.

I believe this is all Street Sense, Hard Spun.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

i think his connections are boneheads and that is a bigger issue to get over then the workout......i like this horse alot but theres a few red flags that go up for me.

Agree with this. While traditional prep methods are losing favor, they have been all over the place with this guy.

[ArlJim78]

Hard Spun was a bit of a puzzle for me, but at the end of the day I decided that I don't think he is a win candidate, and not all that likely to hit the board even.
three things that bother me;
1) hasn't faced top competition, in fact avoided it.

2) the only time he faced some adversity, and had to be asked for everything and dig deep down, there was not much there. yes he was on the wrong part of the track but these were not top class horses, and for a moment he worked himself into competition but then could hold his position against forty Grams, and Officer Rocket. how much fight will he have when challenged in the Derby against much tougher horses? He doesn't look like a horse that you can fool with during the race. He doesn't like to be held, and he doesn't really have a kick either if pushed. He runs his best like in the Lanes End just letting him run. In the derby I like horses that have proven themselves in battle more, that are not so one dimensional, that can be rated a little if need be, and that have something in reserve when called upon.

3) The Lanes End looked to be a fantastic race. The only thing that bothers me is that this was a career best race for Hard Spun, Sedgefield, and Joe Got Even. Why did they all move up at the same time on that day? Why did Sedgefield finish within 3 lengths of Hard Spun that day? For Sedgefield it was a huge jump, like 5 TG points, 11 point jump on Bris. In his next race he fell back to earth big time. Something is odd there and if I don't believe that the Lanes End result was truly legit, then I can't play Hard Spun because the rest of his record doesn't do it for me.

Thats my take, boy will I look dumb if he runs like so many seem to think!

[ShadowRoll]

Didn't this happen before -- where the horse worked extra fast and Mario said he misjudged it because the horse was moving so easy? Or am I thinking of someone else? But if I'm right, it'd be nice to know how the horse did in the next race right after that work.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Hard Spun was a bit of a puzzle for me, but at the end of the day I decided that I don't think he is a win candidate, and not all that likely to hit the board even.
three things that bother me;
1) hasn't faced top competition, in fact avoided it.

2) the only time he faced some adversity, and had to be asked for everything and dig deep down, there was not much there. yes he was on the wrong part of the track but these were not top class horses, and for a moment he worked himself into competition but then could hold his position against forty Grams, and Officer Rocket. how much fight will he have when challenged in the Derby against much tougher horses? He doesn't look like a horse that you can fool with during the race. He doesn't like to be held, and he doesn't really have a kick either if pushed. He runs his best like in the Lanes End just letting him run. In the derby I like horses that have proven themselves in battle more, that are not so one dimensional, that can be rated a little if need be, and that have something in reserve when called upon.

3) The Lanes End looked to be a fantastic race. The only thing that bothers me is that this was a career best race for Hard Spun, Sedgefield, and Joe Got Even. Why did they all move up at the same time on that day? Why did Sedgefield finish within 3 lengths of Hard Spun that day? For Sedgefield it was a huge jump, like 5 TG points, 11 point jump on Bris. In his next race he fell back to earth big time. Something is odd there and if I don't believe that the Lanes End result was truly legit, then I can't play Hard Spun because the rest of his record doesn't do it for me.

Thats my take, boy will I look dumb if he runs like so many seem to think!

His line looks really good to me. He is a must use. No question about it.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Didn't this happen before -- where the horse worked extra fast and Mario said he misjudged it because the horse was moving so easy? Or am I thinking of someone else? But if I'm right, it'd be nice to know how the horse did in the next race right after that work.

Yeah, with a little colt that was born not far from you

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by philcski

Yeah, with a little colt that was born not far from you

Oh...yeah. But I meant, didn't it happen before with Hard Spun?

[todko]

He came out of the work very well. If anything, that work may take some of the edge off him. He's bred to get the distance. Must use. Particularly if we see mud. The closers will be buried in it.

[Cannon Shell]

Like the horse, wary of the jock

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Like the horse, wary of the jock

I figured you were going to say "(Horse X) has no shot."

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I figured you were going to say "(Horse X) has no shot."

I am worried by a jockey that cant tell how fast he is going. I understand that there are some jocks that are not great in the mornings that are fine in the races but very few of those win the derby

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I am worried by a jockey that cant tell how fast he is going. I understand that there are some jocks that are not great in the mornings that are fine in the races but very few of those win the derby

Have you used Pino before? Any success with him?

He's won what, 6,000 races. He's far from incompetent, although the comment of "I didn't realize how fast he was going" is worrysome.

[docicu3]

Living in Maryland Mario is pretty well thought of on this circuit as a cagey middle aged jock with almost 5000 wins I think Chuck....

Do I have this wrong??? I mean is he considered top 10 or did he take his career as far as it could have gone?? Probably not but is he really that much of a liability because of the missed time???

Is there any chance that this was the plan all along to train this horse hard for 5 F thinking because his breeding seems to imply decent pedigree for 12 panels that the sheepish "I didn't think it was that fast" is just Pino playing possum and working us all. Was Carl obviously pissed at Mario ove rthe workout or was it less obvious trainer and jock were on the wrong page?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Living in Maryland Mario is pretty well thought of on this circuit as a cagey middle aged jock with almost 5000 wins I think Chuck....

Do I have this wrong??? I mean is he considered top 10 or did he take his career as far as it could have gone?? Probably not but is he really that much of a liability because of the missed time???

Is there any chance that this was the plan all along to train this horse hard for 5 F thinking because his breeding seems to imply decent pedigree for 12 panels that the sheepish "I didn't think it was that fast" is just Pino playing possum and working us all. Was Carl obviously pissed at Mario ove rthe workout or was it less obvious trainer and jock were on the wrong page?

Carl was probably happy with the work since he trains Street Sense! I just think that a jockey that does not ride in these types of races on a regular basis is more likely to screw up than one who does regardless of how many races they have won. It is a very tricky race to ride in because it is unlike any other. This year is really hard to figure because the pace picture is still unsettled.

[docicu3]

Please excuse the Carl for Larry typo. What an idiot I am regularly.....geez