Belmont - First Race today (5-11) - Page 2

#21 05-11-2007, 11:53 AM

Well I am pretty confident Dr. Franklin will win, but it is harder to win at Belmont than Gulfstream. The layoff concerns me a little, but I am using cash not bodog account money on him, so $20 WPS is pretty much my limit. I find when I bet with cash, regardless of how much I win, I waste it back betting useless things like pick 6's. My offshore account has saved me thousands over the years.

blackthroatedwind · #22 05-11-2007, 12:05 PM

For those keeping score at home.....Now More Than Ever was a significant last.

ArlJim78 · #23 05-11-2007, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

For those keeping score at home.....Now More Than Ever was a significant last.

thanks for the update, i'm at work but i was on the edge of my seat waiting for the news.

who did win?

blackthroatedwind · #24 05-11-2007, 12:10 PM

Dean's List in a three horse photo. Rewrite was third and For Always was second.

Run2Win · #25 05-11-2007, 12:10 PM

And you couldn't have asked for a better ride. It looked like the race was fixed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

For those keeping score at home.....Now More Than Ever was a significant last.

blackthroatedwind · #26 05-11-2007, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Run2Win

And you couldn't have asked for a better ride. It looked like the race was fixed.

Well, of course you weren't wrong, it was obviously a fixed race.

She did get a lousy ride....and then backed up when the real running began in the stretch.

The horse who had the impossible journey was the favorite, Calla Lily, as at least she could have been a contender. Now More Than Ever was never a contender.

ArlJim78 · #27 05-11-2007, 12:17 PM

I'm never wrong.

I do however seem to run into a lot of fixed races.

Run2Win · #28 05-11-2007, 12:19 PM

Of course she was never a contender, she got CHOKED and snatched on the first 3/4 mile. Did you watch the race carefully?

fpsoxfan · #29 05-11-2007, 12:22 PM

Rewrite, rewrote the book on how to spit the bit after incredibly slow fractions.

blackthroatedwind · #30 05-11-2007, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Run2Win

Of course she was never a contender, she got CHOKED and snatched on the first 3/4 mile. Did you watch the race carefully?

Yes, I watched the race carefully, and saw that she lost ground when clear in the stretch.

On of the boggest mistakes people make in watching races is focusing only on the horse they are interested in and then should that horse encounter trouble failing to accurately evaluate the horse's total effort. You are guilty of both in this case.

blackthroatedwind · #31 05-11-2007, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Rewrite, rewrote the book on how to spit the bit after incredibly slow fractions.

While the pace was slow, but there was give in the ground, you have to be very careful with the early fractions in 1 1/16 mile races on the inner turf course at Belmont. There is virtually no run-up, which always causes the first quarter to seem over a second slow, and the ground undulates in an odd way which also contributes to the slow pace. They had pretty much stopped running these races the last few years and have only reinstituted them en masse this meet.

Bobby Fischer · #32 05-11-2007, 12:45 PM

Dr. Franklin was green at times in his debut. Kent riding him back is a good sign if this horse carries that same form , expect him to move a little bit sooner.

The horses that make the 4th race interesting are the unknowns and where they will factor into the trifecta or super. If I am going to put up $150 on the super I don't want one of these guys sneaking in to win or place, or I want to know who to use in exotics to "save".

The 3horse- is this guy going to come up with something big or does he need at least 9 furlongs and some pace up front

The 5 has had no luck , is he healthy now ?

The 11 - if he likes the turf he should have a career best effort. He hasn't shown anything in a race beyond 4f. Toss the slop race. Works show he isn't a pig.

4- cheap , enjoyed the added distance, should enjoy the grass

Even the 8 has a small probability to get 4th if Samyn sucks up

----Tossing the 1,2 but I don't like seeing Prado on the 2 and the 1 has never tried turf yet.

Not an easy race to invest big. Exacta is probably more realistic.

Bobby Fischer · #33 05-11-2007, 12:48 PM

this 3rd race should be easy

blackthroatedwind · #34 05-11-2007, 12:48 PM

The 3 and 5, especially Dance Czar, were my bombs as well. Dance Czar had a bit of a trip in his debut and ran against MUCH tougher than Chinsegut Bay and Dr. Franklin did in their debuts.

fpsoxfan · #35 05-11-2007, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

While the pace was slow, but there was give in the ground, you have to be very careful with the early fractions in 1 1/16 mile races on the inner turf course at Belmont. There is virtually no run-up, which always causes the first quarter to seem over a second slow, and the ground undulates in an odd way which also contributes to the slow pace. They had pretty much stopped running these races the last few years and have only reinstituted them en masse this meet.

Thanks...good to know. I didn't bet the race I was just watching.

Bobby Fischer · #36 05-11-2007, 12:59 PM

with 11 min to go looking at exacta probable payouts -

playing the board:
$1 exacta 2 over the 3and5 - is a nice one if you think speed could hold here at a mile.

trifecta 3,5 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,2,3,5 isn't the worst "action bet" in the world

EDIT 3RDRACE

blackthroatedwind · #37 05-11-2007, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Thanks...good to know. I didn't bet the race I was just watching.

While I have always been curious about the continually unreliable seeming first fractions in those races, most of what I learned about it was from Richard Migliore, who is a great asset to me in learning about trips and racewatching. He is a never ending source of interesting and useful information about racing.

Late Fires · #38 05-11-2007, 01:11 PM

Interesting stuff, Andy - thanks. Given that we may not have a chance to talk to the Mig, any other sources you'd recommend for someone trying to learn more about jockey tactics, trips and racewatching?

Bobby Fischer · #39 05-11-2007, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

with 11 min to go looking at exacta probable payouts -

playing the board:
$1 exacta 2 over the 3and5 - is a nice one if you think speed could hold here at a mile.

trifecta 3,5 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,2,3,5 isn't the worst "action bet" in the world

EDIT 3RDRACE

trifecta 351

I lose $3.10 for all of the above... shoulda had an opinion

blackthroatedwind · #40 05-11-2007, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Late Fires

Interesting stuff, Andy - thanks. Given that we may not have a chance to talk to the Mig, any other sources you'd recommend for someone trying to learn more about jockey tactics, trips and racewatching?

Richie is an unusually sharp guy who absolutely loves everything about the game. Not as a knock on other riders, and I have honestly never really spoken about racing with any, but it would be hard to find a more knowledgable and informative source. However, I value insights from all the people I know at the racetrack, especially backstretch people, as they can offer ideas that I don't know about. Obviously one shouldn't take everything at face value but a different take will often at least be interesting.

The thing about my asking Mig is I know enough about what to ask that I can usually get an informed opinion from him. Let's face it, no matter how much I might think I know, he will know plenty of things I can't know.