Ellis 4% takeout Pick-4 bet diary

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by infield_line

I feel I can say this because I have tried to play Ellis and have invested some effort (and some money) into some of the cards. Casual and even semi-players will walk away because in my opinion, these are erratic, unformal horses for the most part, with a track that has sharp turns and a chute, and that races almost like a bullring. The results unless you want to devote your career to the place.... are unpredictable enough that folks wade in, get their nose bloodied repeatedly... and say "what good is a 4% takeout if the place is uncappable with any rational results?"

Like playing Mountaneer... if you can win there with any consistency...I am genuinely impressed

I/L

When the favs fail at Saratoga, it's simply the Graveyard of Favorites. Del Mar's synthetic surface is causing havoc with cappers. But with Ellis it's somehow the track's fault?

I've said before that I don't like maiden races on any track, but the cheap claimers and low level allowance horses at Ellis appear to run reasonably true at Ellis.

My own poor results are what they are--a fairly small sample of an attempt to do some quick capping. I certainly don't blame Ellis for my poor results.

It's certainly possible that on any given day, the 25% takeout at Saratoga is easier to crack than the 4% at Ellis. My opinion is that the Ellis 4% bet needs to be supported regardless. Otherwise, the wrong message is being sent to the industry.

--Dunbar

[hockey2315]

I think something that definitely needs to be taken into consideration is the growth of other betting pools @ Ellis since the 4% take-out was implemented. I would expect pool growth in many or all bets in races involved in the pk 4. If someone gets knocked out of the pick 4 in the first or second leg chances are they will probably bet on races in the rest of the sequence because they must have had some bet-worthy opinion of those races and we all know how frustrating it can be when you cap for hours and drop a good amount of money into a serial bet and get knocked out early.

I also don't think that Ellis's seeming lack of success with the pk4 is indicative of how lower take-out would be welcomed industry wide. I am certain that if NYRA did the same thing the pools would grow exponentially. There could be 1% take-out and I probably wouldn't play the Ellis pick 4 because I just won't dump that kind of money into a pool at a track that I have no experience at. I admire what Dunbar and others are doing by playing the Ellis pk4 but I think that until the major tracks find some reason to lower take-out, experiments at lower level tracks won't provide any incentive to or evidence that lowering the vig is a good move from a business perspective.

[SniperSB23]

I threw in a small ticket for my good deed of the day:

1,3,WT,2,3,7,WT,1,WT,4,7

[ArlJim78]

i haven't done well yet at Ellis either, but I haven't chalked it up to anything other than my own lack of experience there. i have made several easy mistakes that i only caught after the fact. its not like i have a background of experience playing there so its a little new. and since i've only played pk4's, those are also not wagers that are a cinch anywhere.

what i can say is that it seems to play as fair as anywhere else, i'm by no means throwing in the towel and will be better prepared for the next meet since I think this one is about over.

its like any other track with cheaper stock, you have to dial in your handicapping accordingly.