AQU: Fri/Sat Stakes

[Kasept]

8th (3:48) Top Flight H. (G2)

1 Mile | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Baby Bird Luzzi M J 114 L
2 Mini Sermon Coa E M 114 L
3 Altesse Bravo J 116 L
4 Golden Velvet Garcia Alan 113 L
5 Lady Marlboro Castellano J J 113 L
6 Cindy's Mom Hill C 114 L
7 Pool Land Castro E 121 L
8 Lost Etiquette Arroyo N Jr 113 L



6th (2:49) Demoiselle S. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Melissa Jo Arroyo N Jr 115
2 Expect the End Velasquez C 119 L
3 Mushka Velazquez J R 115 L
4 Be Fruitful Castellano J J 115 FTL
5 Sunday Elegance Gomez G K 115 L
6 Home Crowd McCauley W H 115 L
7 Elusive Lady Coa E M 119 L



7th (3:19) Remsen S. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Court Vision Coa E M 122 L
2 Springs Road Castellano J J 116 L
3 Big Truck Garcia Alan 116 L
4 Tide Dancer Gomez G K 116 L
5 Trust N Dustan Velasquez C 116 L
6 Atoned Velazquez J R 120 L



8th (3:48) Hill 'N' Dale Cigar Mile S. (G1)

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 Midnight Lute Gomez G K 123 L
2 Sir Greeley Velazquez J R 116 L
3 Naughty New Yorker Castellano J J 114 L
4 Diamond Isle Garcia Alan 114 L
5 Daaher Luzzi M J 114 L
6 City Attraction Bravo J 114 L
7 Xchanger Velasquez C 114 L

A-Coupled: Diamond Isle and City Attraction

[Kasept]

Am a little stunned that no one has a thought or comment on Daaher's win over Midnight Lute Saturday... This wasn't exactly a glowing endorsement for Lute's hopes to stretch back out next year, and was one of a number of post-BC efforts over the holiday that was less than great or slightly dull.

Daaher got away with a :46.1 half, and I said to myself at that point that he might be tough to run down. He then proceeded to finish in :47.2. McLaughlin seems to regularly pounce when laying in wait for situations like this. While a fuller field would have been nice, you have to appreciate KMc being undetered by Lute's presence here and Baffert's aggressive approach starting Lute when many would have put him away post Cup...

And... a tip of the cap to Pat Kelly who cleverly got a Gr. I placement for Naughty New Yorker out of the affair.

[pgiaco]

Thought "Lute" might be vulnerable in that spot for two reasons....Short turnaround (for him anyway) and his breathing issues. Did seem like he got hit by a 2x4 around midstretch. Of course I wasn't bright enough to back that up at the windows..
Also thought Nobiz had a lot taken out of him by the BC Mile on the very soft turf. I know people like to beat him on this board but I find any horse coming off a race on a very soft course needs some extra time..

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Am a little stunned that no one has a thought or comment on Daaher's win over Midnight Lute Saturday...

I don't know why this horse hasn't generated any buzz. I was wondering why no one was commenting on him back in September:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16820

His 114 Beyer is higher than Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Any Given Saturday ever got. The only 3yo with a better Beyer is Curlin. Will be very interested to see how he does in the Donn which will likely determine whether he goes to the Dubai World Cup or the Godolphin Mile.

[ArlJim78]

I wasn't at all surprised about Daaher beating Midnight Lute.

First of all, his speed is undeniable, and with the small field thought it really played to his strength and that the Lute would be at a disadvantage. In what amounted to a match race scenario I'm not sure the take back and make a run approach was the best idea, especially with a horse as talented as Daaher. But really it may not have mattered even if he was allowed to run.
In the end you can't say that it was a poor effort by ML as he was chasing a very fast horse that was able to run comfortable fractions on a track that to me favors early speed.

Daaher is a bigtime prospect for sure, but I'll want to see him going 9f or better around two turns before getting all giddy. Of course I can say the same for Midnite Lute.

[blackthroatedwind]

I also think there's a very distinct possibility that Midnight Lute has serious distance limitations.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I also think there's a very distinct possibility that Midnight Lute has serious distance limitations.

agree, I suspect him of distance limitations moreso than Daaher

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I also think there's a very distinct possibility that Midnight Lute has serious distance limitations.

Any human sprinter (100M or 200M) would have trouble stretching out to 400M or 1/2 mile,for example, so, in that sense, ML was at a disadvantage going up against a distance horse that had early speed. And no matter how much/specifically Baffet trained him for the mile, I don't think there's any way a horse could overcome this disadvantage ---especially if it didn't figure to make the front and (try to) control the pace.

But an interesting question is which horse out there presently do you think would've been able to run down Daaher, given the way the race shaped up? This just might put that effort into perspective.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Any human sprinter (100M or 200M) would have trouble stretching out to 400M or 1/2 mile,for example, so, in that sense, ML was at a disadvantage going up against a distance horse that had early speed. And no matter how much/specifically Baffet trained him for the mile, I don't think there's any way a horse could overcome this disadvantage ---especially if it didn't figure to make the front and (try to) control the pace.

But an interesting question is which horse out there presently do you think would've been able to run down Daaher, given the way the race shaped up? This just might put that effort into perspective.

if i understand you correctly I think this is a good question. If you're asking which horse could have been substituted into that race in place of Midnite Lute that could have run down Daaher? Very hard to answer, probably not many. i really can't think of any, its hard to run down a fast horse with no pace pressure at a distance that is well within his scope.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

if i understand you correctly I think this is a good question. If you're asking which horse could have been substituted into that race in place of Midnite Lute that could have run down Daaher? Very hard to answer, probably not many. i really can't think of any, its hard to run down a fast horse with no pace pressure at a distance that is well within his scope.

I'm intrigued by the consensus as to the (lack of ) pace of that race. The splits were:

23.10 23.22 23.50 23.97

so, Daaher is slowing down at a relatively consistent pace (.10, .28, .47)

But, even though the initial fraction was slow(ish) it has yet to be mentioned that Daaher didn't break all that well, as Xchanger gapped the field at the break, coming in at the break and bumped soundly with the 4, and then was hustled by Luzzi to stay close to Xchanger in the run to the 1st quarter, and didn't take the lead until just before the 1st quarter. So, even though the 1st qtr was slow, Daaher certainly did more work than the others during that portion of the race. He ran as much as, or more so, than any other horse in the race and finished relatively straight (wavering a half path or so in either direction) in the stretch; as did Midnight Lute.

[blackthroatedwind]

Obviously I understand the race dynamics and the herculean effort that it would have taken from Midnight Lute to overcome that. However, he barely made an effective run, and considering his past failures going past 7F, it is hardly unreasonable to question how far he wants to go.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm intrigued by the consensus as to the (lack of ) pace of that race. The splits were:

23.10 23.22 23.50 23.97

so, Daaher is slowing down at a relatively consistent pace (.10, .28, .47)

But, even though the initial fraction was slow(ish) it has yet to be mentioned that Daaher didn't break all that well, as Xchanger gapped the field at the break, coming in at the break and bumped soundly with the 4, and then was hustled by Luzzi to stay close to Xchanger in the run to the 1st quarter, and didn't take the lead until just before the 1st quarter. So, even though the 1st qtr was slow, Daaher certainly did more work than the others during that portion of the race. He ran as much as, or more so, than any other horse in the race and finished relatively straight (wavering a half path or so in either direction) in the stretch; as did Midnight Lute.

oh i agree with all that, I didn't mean to imply there was no pace.

[alysheba4]

i didnt care for the ride........... the horse was strangled for the first 1/2 mile. you cannot fight a horse like that, he should have engaged the other horse right away. that being said, it may or may not have changed the outcome.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't know why this horse hasn't generated any buzz. I was wondering why no one was commenting on him back in September:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16820

His 114 Beyer is higher than Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Any Given Saturday ever got. The only 3yo with a better Beyer is Curlin. Will be very interested to see how he does in the Donn which will likely determine whether he goes to the Dubai World Cup or the Godolphin Mile.

I really get annoyed when somebody comes on and says 'he got a big Beyer number so he must be a great horse'. First of all, I don't put much credence in speed numbers as a measure of quality, especially at the NY tracks (and a couple of others) where the numbers seem to be somewhat inflated. Quality is measured in head-to-head competition. In this case, this is a one-turn mile performance - how can that be compared to two-turn distances of 1 or 2 furlongs longer? The races are two different animals.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I really get annoyed when somebody comes on and says 'he got a big Beyer number so he must be a great horse'. First of all, I don't put much credence in speed numbers as a measure of quality, especially at the NY tracks (and a couple of others) where the numbers seem to be somewhat inflated. Quality is measured in head-to-head competition. In this case, this is a one-turn mile performance - how can that be compared to two-turn distances of 1 or 2 furlongs longer? The races are two different animals.

Where did anyone say that Daaher was a " great horse?" Find the post.

Secondly, who the hell cares what you think of Beyer figs? Hell, you call yourself " Pedigree Ann " and have displayed at best a cursory understanding of pedigree. I can only imagine what you know about speed figures. Judging by this post it's zero. But, since you are obviously in dire need of a lesson, and have shown a great willingness to learn on this site, here's a little help for you. Daaher ran 14/5s of a second faster than a Lukas runaway 2YO maiden winner earlier in the card. That's over sixteen lengths which equates to approximately 33 points. Considering the Lukas horse won by open lengths, over a couple of reasonably talented 2YOs, and had received two Beyer figures of 74, it's hardly a stretch to say that he ran a ran a figure of around 80. That would put Daaher's 114 right in line.

As for your comment about quality being measured in head to head competition.......ummmm he drowned recent Breeder's Cup winner Midnight Lute. Who exactly was he supposed to beat for you to have approved of his performance? And, if what you really meant was that he can't be compared to the 3YOs he mentioned, because they raced at different distances, well I think it is obvious to most that he wasn't necessarily saying Daaher was better than those horses, only that his performance certainly warranted discussion.

On your unfounded, and unsubstantiated comments of " bias " in the figs....well Daaher ran a 107 Beyer fig at Saratoga going 1 1/8 miles. Street Sense got a 105 Beyer at 1 1/8 in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga and a 108 at 1 1/4 in the Travers. What was the bias in those numbers at Saratoga that placed Daaher in fair comparison to this year's Derby winner? Plus, the 107, which also equaled Curlin's figure in the Belmont Stakes ( also run on a NY track ), that Daaher received was in just his 5th start. Believe it or not, horses often improve with racing, so it's not a stretch that he has surpassed at least some of those mentioned at this point.

[freddymo]

Pedigree Ann thanks for bringing out his best. It's a true talent to bait a genius.

[King Glorious]

My opinion is that you can't take too much out of this race. Daaher is obviously a quality horse but I don't think this race did anything to prove that. I thought he had only one horse to beat and that one horse had many things going against him. First, there was a nine pound weight disadvantage for ML. Second, he was making a relatively short (for him and for today's racehorse) comeback after being trained to peak just a month ago. I do not like backing horses that come back soon after running in a peak race. Same reason why I'll not bet an Arc winner running back in the BC Turf. Fourth, the winner was allowed to waltz along under very moderate fractions and would have been hard to catch by ANY horse, especially carrying only 114 pounds on his back. Fourth, the distance was further than he had ever shown his best at. I know all about the breathing issues and Baffert saying that they had been overcome but I'm not so sure about how much stock I put into that excuse. I mean, when he was losing his route races early in the year, it's not like he was running horrible races. To me, his performances didn't look like a horse that was having breathing issues. When I see a horse making moves and then all of a sudden stop and give it up, that's when I can see something is wrong. Lute never exhibited that. In his two route tries, he earned figures of 105 and 103 and both races were lost by less than two lengths. Instead of looking like a horse that was running and stopped because he wasn't getting his air, he looked to me like a horse that didn't want to run that far. It looked the same to me in the Cigar. Fifth, it looked like a very overconfident ride by ML's jockey. It seemed like the horse wanted to go on but the rider was fighting not to let him. Maybe it doesn't effect the outcome but I would have liked to see what would have happened had they allowed Lute to go after Daaher earlier and put some pressure on him instead of choking him down and, IMO, taking some of the fight out of him.

[NTamm1215]

As far as the whole rider argument goes, am I the only one who thinks Garrett Gomez is terrible at rating horses and can really only be trusted with one-run closers?

I've got three rides in Grade I races as examples.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

Once again a jockey is being given too much credit for affecting the outcome of a race. How in the world the debate about Garrett Gomez's ride could possibly diminish the exceptional performance by Daaher is way beyond me.

Daaher ran well. He didn't run the greatest race we've ever seen but he still ran very well. He also got a good trip, but he made the most of it, and has certainly established himself as a quality animal in a reasonably short period of time. He also showed in the Jerome that he can rate. No, he has not successfully shown an ability to overcome genuine adversity. No, he has not shown absolute brilliance. But, he's pretty good, and in today's racing world where mediocrities are routinely applauded he has certainly shown more than most. Right now I think it's fair to say his accomplishments compare at least favorably to those of Discreet Cat. Last year at this time I recall a lot of people suggesting that Discreet Cat might be an all-time great. Now, that was obviously jumping the gun, but finding ways to somehow diminish Daaher's recent record is even more out of line.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Once again a jockey is being given too much credit for affecting the outcome of a race. How in the world the debate about Garrett Gomez's ride could possibly diminish the exceptional performance by Daaher is way beyond me.

Daaher ran well. He didn't run the greatest race we've ever seen but he still ran very well. He also got a good trip, but he made the most of it, and has certainly established himself as a quality animal in a reasonably short period of time. He also showed in the Jerome that he can rate. No, he has not successfully shown an ability to overcome genuine adversity. No, he has not shown absolute brilliance. But, he's pretty good, and in today's racing world where mediocrities are routinely applauded he has certainly shown more than most. Right now I think it's fair to say his accomplishments compare at least favorably to those of Discreet Cat. Last year at this time I recall a lot of people suggesting that Discreet Cat might be an all-time great. Now, that was obviously jumping the gun, but finding ways to somehow diminish Daaher's recent record is even more out of line.

Oh no, don't get me wrong, Daaher ran great and the race further proved in my mind that Lute doesn't want anything beyond seven furlongs.

NT