War Pass --DB ?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

and i can't believe he lacks an appreciation of knee jerk lunacy.

it's like a vintner who doesn't like wine.

... I think your allegory cross-fired.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Kasept

... I think your allegory cross-fired.

i was just saying an internet bb produces 5 parts lunacy for every valuable insight.

the best part of the board (for me) are the completely insane over the top posts.

btw's insights are good.

but scud's rant's are better.

just my opinion.

[sumitas]

dear god;
it's good to have a lighter hearted perspective at times.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A second place finish in the Travers and a win in the Suburban Handicap with figures at or above his slop win?

E Dubai was 1-for-4 on off tracks and 3-for-6 on fast tracks.

I’ll take your word on that as I don’t have the past performances to revisit, but I do remember he finished a very close second in the Super Derby in the slop. In the Brooklyn he was coming off a very long layoff, off the top of my head I think it was a 6 month to a year layoff. What I am saying is in the The Dywer he set very fast fractions in the slop and won with ease, I think the final time was 1:40 and change and at the time that number dwarfed his previous numbers.

[Cannon Shell]

Zito and Lukas certainly have achieved far more in their careers than the the vast majority of the world accomplishes in theirs.

Determining the degree of health of a horse is not a simple task as it has been thrown around here.

La Penta's horses that race have almost all been offered for sale as 2 year olds, they race the ones that they can not sell. They are far from culls but all the same players have a shot at them. Zito has done an unbelievable job picking out horses. To have an immensely successful pinhooking operation and also have the top horses that he and La Penta have had the past few years is near impossible.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

As for your awful rating of Stew Elliott, why don't you tell me how he's been the last year going long?

I'll save you time. 31% wins. Ave price $8.05

Over the last 12 months, at all racetracks, Stewart Elliott has ridden in 465 route races - won 72 of them for a 15.5% win percentage - and his $2 ROI on those 465 mounts is $1.49

Basically, from a sample size of almost 500 rides - he wins about once per ever 6.5 mounts - and his mounts have lost 25.5% on the betting dollar, which is well above the win takeout.

Those are pretty mediocre stats - unless you compare him with fellow PG 1985 top ten national jockey Mario Pino.

Pino is 73-for-407 (18%) in routes - and his $2 ROI is $1.24. Which means that his mounts in route races lose a staggering 38% on the betting dollar. More than double the win takeout.

However, because guys like Elliott and Pino won big races on excellent horses like Smarty Jones and Hard Spun - people tend to overrate them.

Jockeys are a very overrated factor anyhow.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Over the last 12 months, at all racetracks, Stewart Elliott has ridden in 465 route races - won 72 of them for a 15.5% win percentage - and his $2 ROI on those 465 mounts is $1.49

Basically, from a sample size of almost 500 rides - he wins about once per ever 6.5 mounts - and his mounts have lost 25.5% on the betting dollar, which is well above the win takeout.

Those are pretty mediocre stats - unless you compare him with fellow PG 1985 top ten national jockey Mario Pino.

Pino is 73-for-407 (18%) in routes - and his $2 ROI is $1.24. Which means that his mounts in route races lose a staggering 38% on the betting dollar. More than double the win takeout.

However, because guys like Elliott and Pino won big races on excellent horses like Smarty Jones and Hard Spun - people tend to overrate them.

Jockeys are a very overrated factor anyhow.

I don't disagree with any of this. I do want to point out that though the win takeout is usually 17-18%, the average horse does not lose the track takeout. If you bet every horse, you'll lose about 25%. Just a little FYI for those that like to compare ROI to the takeout.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I don't disagree with any of this. I do want to point out that though the win takeout is usually 17-18%, the average horse does not lose the track takeout. If you bet every horse, you'll lose about 25%. Just a little FYI for those that like to compare ROI to the takeout.

Well sure, but if you do that you also get to come on here and brag endlessly about how you bet the winner.
Based on what I have seen on here recently, I am starting to think that is really the whole point for many people.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Id buy

Hmmm....perhaps you would, but many are so attached to their lunacy that I don't see them trading it in for Steve's reasonable approach idea anytime soon.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I couldn't care one way or another if he wins the Derby, runs last in the Derby or even makes the Derby.

What I'm 'selling' is a reasonable approach to the ups and downs of horses as their careers unfold as opposed to knee jerk lunacy suggesting a previously undefeated Champion colt is minutes from retirement because he tossed in a non-effort clunker.

And I'm sorry I can't come up with a more recent example than dual Classic winner Afleet Alex who came within 2-3 strides of a Derby win and Triple Crown. My bad...

He hung late in the Derby.Ran huge in the Preakness.If he didn't have the one bad race at OAKLAWN,maybe he would have finished the Derby,but he got late.All the recent Derby winners have been horses who haven't had a bad race like this in the 2 months before the derby.I hope he runs.He will fry,and insure a nice pace.He pulls anyways.Even in the races against Pyro,he was giving up ground to Pyro in the stretch.He isn't bred for 10f.He doesn't relax enough to get 10f.This horse is for figure geeks.Not for people who can figure out who is gunna get 10f.This wasn't an o.k. 3rd.This is not some minor setback.A bad race like this is not the norm for a derby winner.His best chance would be in a wicked rain storm.Overlooking this race is knee-jerk (if you're talking about trying to win the Derby.)Nice to say it's a minor set back.It isn't.Not saying he can't be a nice stakes horse this year,but horses without March-April hick ups usually win the derby.Just look at it objectively.It's a major hick up.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

He hung late in the Derby.Ran huge in the Preakness.If he didn't have the one bad race at OAKLAWN,maybe he would have finished the Derby,but he got late.All the recent Derby winners have been horses who haven't had a bad race like this in the 2 months before the derby.I hope he runs.He will fry,and insure a nice pace.He pulls anyways.Even in the races against Pyro,he was giving up ground to Pyro in the stretch.He isn't bred for 10f.He doesn't relax enough to get 10f.This horse is for figure geeks.Not for people who can figure out who is gunna get 10f.This wasn't an o.k. 3rd.This is not some minor setback.A bad race like this is not the norm for a derby winner.His best chance would be in a wicked rain storm.Overlooking this race is knee-jerk (if you're talking about trying to win the Derby.)Nice to say it's a minor set back.It isn't.Not saying he can't be a nice stakes horse this year,but horses without March-April hick ups usually win the derby.

Isn't the larger point that BOTH tossing the race completely out, AND throwing the horse under the bus based on one start are both wrong approaches? We learned SOMETHING about War Pass based on his race Saturday that we should all use the next time he runs. At this point different people have different ideas about what that something was, but I think it would be wise to avoid any sort of extreme opinion one way or the other based on one race. I think that was the larger point Steve was trying to make in bringing up Afleet Alex's last place finish at Oaklawn.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think what you are missing SCUDS is no one is saying he's going to win the Derby in this thread. I certainly haven't. Never have. But, it's pretty obvious something was amiss the other day. I just didn't then and still don't understand how ONE race where something was obviously not right turns War Pass into a fraud and Zito a clueless trainer. That has been my point from the start. The horse is still very good and a champion. So what he might not win the Derby, doesn't diminish what he has done and might do later on.

LOL...Gary Stevens is touting him to win the Cigar Mile.

I said Zito is an o.k. trainer.Sometimes,I think he does appear clueless.I mean when Bailey gets off Noble Causeway at the gate? The horse is not o.k.

There are a lot of things going against War Pass,but a hick up in the middle of March is by far the most important thing people are overlooking.I am only writing as far as the derby goes.Of course he is a nice horse.I don't think he is a 10f horse.He might have a shot in the Preakness.

[sumitas]

I throw out the BC races at Monmouth because of the Xtreme conditions. And I include the juvi and War Pass running over that bizarre surface.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No sh it he might not be a 10 furlong horse. If Zito was a Cali trainer, you'd be fellating him right now.

He is an o.k. trainer.Tommy Lasorda of the training world.

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

He is an o.k. trainer.Tommy Lasorda of the training world.

What a riot. Zito would look great in a LA Dodgers hat.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Zito and Lukas certainly have achieved far more in their careers than the the vast majority of the world accomplishes in theirs.

Determining the degree of health of a horse is not a simple task as it has been thrown around here.

La Penta's horses that race have almost all been offered for sale as 2 year olds, they race the ones that they can not sell. They are far from culls but all the same players have a shot at them. Zito has done an unbelievable job picking out horses. To have an immensely successful pinhooking operation and also have the top horses that he and La Penta have had the past few years is near impossible.

Chuck -- I've stayed out of this discussion on purpose, by design. However, I no longer can. Please, I absolutely and emphatically say to you "Please" -- please do not confuse nonsensical rantings and ravings, claims and BS with your facts.

In addition, a person such as yourself -- one who completely understands the facts -- who has a qualified opinion on matters such as these, who can have an educated discussion on these types of matters, can speak to these types of things, etc. -- you have no place here in this conversation.

Let's not let logic, common sense and facts creep into this type of conversation.

Now that we've gotten that out of the way -- let the lunacy continue.

Eric

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by ELA

Chuck -- I've stayed out of this discussion on purpose, by design. However, I no longer can. Please, I absolutely and emphatically say to you "Please" -- please do not confuse nonsensical rantings and ravings, claims and BS with your facts.

In addition, a person such as yourself -- one who completely understands the facts -- who has a qualified opinion on matters such as these, who can have an educated discussion on these types of matters, can speak to these types of things, etc. -- you have no place here in this conversation.

Let's not let logic, common sense and facts creep into this type of conversation.

Now that we've gotten that out of the way -- let the lunacy continue.

Eric

Actually, I appreciate the facts and like listening to what Chuck has to say about these kinds of things. I don't know that much about the guys on the East Coast so...

[Danzig]

lapenta spoke out about war pass, his comments about the fever, etc...


http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44141

i suggest that anyone who came at lapenta/zito with guns blazing for running a 'sick' horse read the above.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Here's a lovely quote from the Haskin article:

“I had 25 family members there and everyone was having a great time,” LaPenta said. “When the horse walked past the stands he looked like Adonis; he was gorgeous.

That's right - yesterday Haskin runs a piece with a LaPenta quote from last Thursday where he compared him to the 1977 Wood Memorial winner.

Today Haskin runs a piece with a LaPenta quote from after the race where he compares him with the 1999 Wood Memorial winner.

Adonis might have been the worst Wood winner ever!

In all seriousness, all this War Pass stuff is getting real old. Unless it's Roger Stein who is being quoted, I just don't care to read it anymore.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Here's a lovely quote from the Haskin article:

“I had 25 family members there and everyone was having a great time,” LaPenta said. “When the horse walked past the stands he looked like Adonis; he was gorgeous.

That's right - yesterday Haskin runs a piece with a LaPenta quote from last Thursday where he compared him to the 1977 Wood Memorial winner.

Today Haskin runs a piece with a LaPenta quote from after the race where he compares him with the 1999 Wood Memorial winner.

Adonis might have been the worst Wood winner ever!

In all seriousness, all this War Pass stuff is getting real old. Unless it's Roger Stein who is being quoted, I just don't care to read it anymore.

...

He was comparing the horse to mythical Adonis.