3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I) - Page 2

kentuckyrosesinmay · #21 03-25-2008, 09:41 AM

I think Tomcito is a very good colt. He is a very powerful looking individual, who also looks like he still had room to mature quite a bit from when he was running last year since he was still built downhill.

Tomcito has a lot more upside going into the Florida Derby than Shediak did going into the San Felipe even off the layoff. He has already won several big races routing at 2 on the dirt, but has been off for quite some time. He is a Street Cry who can run all day, and has quite the closing kick. I have only been able to watch the horse on youtube, and the quality is not that great, so it is hard to tell exactly how good he is, but I think he is at least good enough to be in the trifecta in the Florida Derby. He also has a ton of upside for the Derby based on his previous races if he makes it in. He just worked a bullet...5 in 58 4/5 on March 17. Back on Feb. 19, he worked 4 in 46 flat. He's had a couple of breezing 8 furlong workouts as well. Based on his workouts, he is going to be ready to go in this race.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=FZNGTN7ZyJc
http://youtube.com/watch?v=BILxwj40cRA
http://youtube.com/watch?v=0KVzIkFC-_o
http://youtube.com/watch?v=7GfogN7mb0w

I think they are all running for second in the Florida Derby anyway so I won't play the race, but I would be surprised if Tomcito doesn't run a really good race. If I was betting a colt to upset Big Brown, it would be him, but I don't think he is going to get the job done here. Elysium Fields should run a big one as well. I don't think that Hey Byrn is that good.

I can see several horses running a 100+ BSF in this race, which = not slow.

SniperSB23 · #22 03-25-2008, 09:52 AM

I have a feeling our Derby favorite will come out of this race. No clue who but there are about 5 to 6 possibilities. You know Pyro will get beat by a couple turf horses in the Blue Grass so if someone throws up a 100+ Beyer here (which I hope it will take to win) they could wind up the Derby favorite.

Scav · #23 03-25-2008, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Of all of the horses this year why do you have to put the mush on my horse?

I just thought of that very thing. I haven't seen the sheets yet but I would have to think that people will be unloading on Big Brown, and Face the Cat and Hey Byrn taking some action, would lead to decent value on Elysium Fields. Coa aint gonna **** this ride up again. He should get a great trip regardless of his post

smuthg · #24 03-26-2008, 11:20 AM

Big Brown drew the outside post in a field of 12 for the Florida Derby. Should be interesting...

Scav · #25 03-26-2008, 11:22 AM

Even better because people will still play

#26 03-26-2008, 11:26 AM

Fierce Wind in the garden spot.

smuthg · #27 03-26-2008, 11:27 AM

I just saw where Curlin drew the 12 hole for the DWC... I can't remember how Nad Al Sheba is set up, but don't they have a pretty good run into the first turn.

Scav · #28 03-26-2008, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smuthg

I just saw where Curlin drew the 12 hole for the DWC... I can't remember how Nad Al Sheba is set up, but don't they have a pretty good run into the first turn.

Post the entries for Dubai if you could

smuthg · #29 03-26-2008, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Post the entries for Dubai if you could

This is all I've found thus far...

http://dubairacingclub.com/dubaiworl...d=314&post=684

and I'm not smart enough to tell if this is final or not... It does have Curlin in the 12 hole.

http://www.emiratesracing.com/eq/Dec...eeting_id=2243

the_fat_man · #30 03-26-2008, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He'll really have to be the best Desormeaux has ever ridden to win from there.

Why is Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and a few of the others making a comeback for the race? Not like there are any world beaters in the race OR a large field. So, WHO CARES where he breaks from.

tiggerv · #31 03-26-2008, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Why is Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and a few of the others making a comeback for the race? Not like there are any world beaters in the race OR a large field. So, WHO CARES where he breaks from.

Unless Big Brown is the 2nd coming of Barbaro, he has no chance from that post.

northeastbound123 · #32 03-26-2008, 11:51 AM

does anyone have or know where i can find the entries

lemoncrush · #33 03-26-2008, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Considering posts 11 and 12 have NEVER won going 9 furlongs on the dirt since they renovated the track I'd imagine people would care. I also imagine anyone planning on playing Big Brown or against Big Brown care. And I'm almost positive his connections care. But yeah, other than that, who cares where he breaks from. Maybe they can set up a gate in the stands and he can break from there. Would you care then?

Big Brown fans better hope for some scratches in the race. Anyone outside post 9 is going to have to run the race of their life to win in a competitive field like this.

ArlJim78 · #34 03-26-2008, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Why is Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and a few of the others making a comeback for the race? Not like there are any world beaters in the race OR a large field. So, WHO CARES where he breaks from.

its pretty much a death sentence if you ask me for a horse making its 2 turn debut. He'll need to be a monster to get it done from out there. the data for nine furlongs at the new Gulfstream makes it clear that its one of the extreme cases when post position really does count in a big way.
maybe he'll be the first to do it, that would be impressive.

the_fat_man · #35 03-26-2008, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Unless Big Brown is the 2nd coming of Barbaro, he has no chance from that post.

Who exactly did Barbaro beat in that race? Those BEHIND him had distinguished careers.

I haven't looked the field over but I can't believe there's much in it. If BB is any kind of horse, and I'm not talking about a ***** NEED EVERYTHING ITS OWN WAY TYPE, like War Pass, then he sits comfortably outside and rolls.

As for all the rest of the concern: BB won't be a price. Why in the world would I be gearing up to bet this horse when there's so much OTHER VALUE, in OTHER races out there.

You guys take your STAR ENVY (or STAR wanna be envy) very seriously here.

the_fat_man · #36 03-26-2008, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

its pretty much a death sentence if you ask me for a horse making its 2 turn debut. He'll need to be a monster to get it done from out there. the data for nine furlongs at the new Gulfstream makes it clear that its one of the extreme cases when post position really does count in a big way.
maybe he'll be the first to do it, that would be impressive.

Give me data that's MEANINGFUL, Jim.

Give me information on horses with LEGITIMATE SHOTS that broke from the outside. How many could there have possibly been in the past 20 years, let alone since they REDID the track?

#37 03-26-2008, 12:08 PM

Bobby Fischer · #38 03-26-2008, 12:14 PM

I think its good. Come on, if brown is what he looks like, then we don't want the public to switch over.
he wins by 2 instead of 9 , and by and large the public doesn't want a story about overcoming track dynamics.
The sheets or graphs or beyers write 1 article, big deal. If he wins here, then pray that Pyro and War Pass win their preps.

Cajungator26 · #39 03-26-2008, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I think its good. Come on, if brown is what he looks like, then we don't want the public to switch over.
he wins by 2 instead of 9 , and by and large the public doesn't want a story about overcoming track dynamics.
The sheets or graphs or beyers write 1 article, big deal. If he wins here, then pray that Pyro and War Pass win their preps.

Big Brown has no shot to win from that post.

SniperSB23 · #40 03-26-2008, 12:19 PM

Remember the FOY when we heard how Adriano was so good he'd be able to overcome the 12 post?