3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I) - Page 5

Scav · #81 03-27-2008, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

No. Big Brown has monster figures and wins. The morning line may even be too high.. He'll be 2/1.

It isn't THAT monsterous, I haven't seen them yet but BB ran a 1 last out according to Bloodhorse, and my guess is that Elysium Fields ran pretty close to that, maybe the 2 range, I could be completely wrong though, we will know tonight when they are put out

miraja2 · #82 03-27-2008, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

We'll see how those monster figures play out against this field. Bad post and all, we should see how good he really is.

My feeling is that while he certainly could win, he was likely going to be overbet in this race regardless of post position. The fact that he drew post twelve makes me think that he will be overbet even more.

Scav · #83 03-27-2008, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

My feeling is that while he certainly could win, he was likely going to be overbet in this race regardless of post position. The fact that he drew post twelve makes me think that he will be overbet even more.

Opposite in regards to the post, people will pull back now because of it. Bettors are not stupid, at least the weekend warriors are not, they know it is impossible to win from out there.

Scav · #84 03-27-2008, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He'll still be the favorite, I'm pretty confident in that. I also don't think people are as aware as you think. Read some of these threads.

I am not too confident in him running, regardless of what is said to the media. I don't want to get my hopes up, because like you, I am tossing out of the first two spots, and I doubt I am playing the tri.

The horse is obviously good, but this post crushes his chances of winning, and honestly, if he does win, I am ok with that also because he will be the Derby favorite then, and he will have to run so huge to win this race, that he will be gutted.

BB might be the horse that just keeps on giving because I crushed him in his opener at Toga, and I plan on playing against him on Saturday and this saturday isn't terribly important because the result will benefit me either way. He wins and I get to toss the derby favorite with confidence, he loses I probably hit the race.

If he does run, and run poorly, I wouldn't be surprised to see them run in the Lexington, or even the Holy Bull closing weekend at Gulfstream.

#85 03-27-2008, 10:49 AM

I was looking at a Florida Derby thread on another board and the consensus was Tomcito was going to win. Will this board ever reach that level of crazy?

tiggerv · #86 03-27-2008, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

He wins and I get to toss the derby favorite with confidence, he loses I probably hit the race.

That's exactly my plan. Take a stand against him this weekend and if he does happen to win then I've probably found my Derby horse.

Scav · #87 03-27-2008, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

That's exactly my plan. Take a stand against him this weekend and if he does happen to win then I've probably found my Derby horse.

So if he wins, you like him to win the Derby? that is exact opposite that I said?

tiggerv · #88 03-27-2008, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

So if he wins, you like him to win the Derby? that is exact opposite that I said?

Misread what you said...so yes we think completely opposite.

Obviously it depends on how this race shakes out but if he wins here it would be to me the most impressive performance thus far in a season full of crap and slow horses and I wouldn't hesitate to bet him in the Derby.

That being said...I still think he has no chance whatsoever Saturday and will put my money where my mouth is this weekend.

Scav · #89 03-27-2008, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Misread what you said...so yes we think completely opposite.

Obviously it depends on how this race shakes out but if he wins here it would be to me the most impressive performance thus far in a season full of crap and slow horses and I wouldn't hesitate to bet him in the Derby.

That being said...I still think he has no chance whatsoever Saturday and will put my money where my mouth is this weekend.

He has to run absolutely huge this weekend to run in the KY Derby because time is running out. This is his race because they won't wheel him back next weekend, and I doubt they would wheel him back in the Bluegrass or Arkansas Derby. So he either gets in the top two this weekend to get to the Derby or adios.

Running that big will lead to a bounce, especially for a horse that has had his problems. Personally, while I am playing against him this weekend, I almost hope he runs out of his mind and runs absolutely huge so I will be able to take advantage of it while at the Derby, he won't be on ANY of my tickets Derby day, regardless....

lemoncrush · #90 03-27-2008, 11:45 AM

I'm still taking a wait and see approach until the day comes.
I would be surprised if there wasn't at least one scratch.
Majestic Warrior has a poor post, and doesn't need the earnings to get into the Derby.Makes more sense for him to re-route to an easier spot.
This is Face the Cat's only shot at getting in, so maybe they go another way too.
Regardless, Smooth Air and Fierce Wind both look a lot more playable with their inside draws.

Scav · #91 03-27-2008, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I'm still taking a wait and see approach until the day comes.
I would be surprised if there wasn't at least one scratch.
Majestic Warrior has a poor post, and doesn't need the earnings to get into the Derby.Makes more sense for him to re-route to an easier spot.
This is Face the Cat's only shot at getting in, so maybe they go another way too.
Regardless, Smooth Air and Fierce Wind both look a lot more playable with their inside draws.

Smooth Air = NO.....I can't argue about Fierce Wind in that I don't know enough about him

Bobby Fischer · #92 03-27-2008, 11:47 AM

It all depends on Fierce Wind.
He has gate quickness and route speed and the ideal post. The next closest speed is gate7.

How much will BB Frank and Face The Cat fight him for the lead? How game will Fierce Wind be?

If Fierce Wind runs a strong effort, everyone else has to work very hard.

If Fierce Wind weakens, Elysium Fields or Big Brown can cruise up to even terms, and still have horse left.

hockey2315 · #93 03-27-2008, 11:50 AM

What don't you like about Smooth Air, Scav?

Scav · #94 03-27-2008, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

What don't you like about Smooth Air, Scav?

I just think there are better horses in the race. I don't think he gets the distance and he just isn't fast enough right now. Who did he really beat in the Hutcheson? I can't recall the trip he got but my guess it was a good one

The Indomitable DrugS · #95 03-27-2008, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I was looking at a Florida Derby thread on another board and the consensus was Tomcito was going to win. Will this board ever reach that level of crazy?

I never knew racing fans in Peru had their own message board.

hockey2315 · #96 03-27-2008, 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I just think there are better horses in the race. I don't think he gets the distance and he just isn't fast enough right now. Who did he really beat in the Hutcheson? I can't recall the trip he got but my guess it was a good one

But doesn't he have a tactical advantage? With all those horses trapped outside he should work out a better trip than them. . . He might not have to be better than them. Also, his last race at GP was very impressive and I think he's better bred for the distance than people realize.

lemoncrush · #97 03-27-2008, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

But doesn't he have a tactical advantage? With all those horses trapped outside he should work out a better trip than them. . . He might not have to be better than them. Also, his last race at GP was very impressive and I think he's better bred for the distance than people realize.

I was skeptical of Smooth Air too, at first. I don't think the distance will be an issue, especially breaking for the 2 post. His connections have obviously been pointing to this race, and his work pattern is pretty impressive.
2 straight breezes going a mile, followed by a 7F work, followed by a bullet
5F work on Tuesday. He looks as fit as can be, and has a legititimate shot to hit the board. If the track is wet, he moves up even more.

hockey2315 · #98 03-27-2008, 01:44 PM

According to the DRF entries Gulfstream doesn't have a PK4 on Saturday. . .

Indian Charlie · #99 03-27-2008, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I never knew racing fans in Peru had their own message board.

Maybe try this?

http://www.jcp.org.pe/

lemoncrush · #**100** 03-27-2008, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

According to the DRF entries Gulfstream doesn't have a PK4 on Saturday. . .

That would be odd... What would be the reason for that?

EDIT- Looks like they're having a 50 cent pick 6. Do they normally do this?
Maybe they're marketing that wager, and feel the pot will be bigger without the Pick 4.

EDIT - again. DRF now shows the Pick 4 going races 9-12.