Spa jockey/agent title race

Insiders will tell you that the "jockey title" race at the Spa is as much about the agents as it is the riders.
Johnny and Angel no longer care about titles in even the most vague way, they realize its a money game and Johnny has already won titles and set records up here. They also realize that riding first call for Todd leaves them up against it to get catch mounts.
So its come down to the two very best agents in the business, with no love lost between them, going for the title.
At the start of the meet I posted here that I made Edgar Prado 3-5 to win it and now I wold go as far as to take 1-2 if I could get a line on it.
Bob Frieze is the man who engineered Jerry Bailey's incredible meteoric rise from journeyman to eclipse award record setting rider. Dumped by Bailey for Gomez' current agent Ron Anderson, Frieze worked like a man obsessed and beat bailey and Anderson for the title with his then new rider Prado a few years back.
No love lost between them and now its carried over into Frieze/Prado vs Gomez/Anderson.
Anderson is a great agent regarded by most as the bets agent. he does an incredible job getting his riders on big money mounts in stakes races. But Frieze is no slouch himself. A totally different guy than Anderson, he always has a gameface on and is the best I ever saw at picking up live catch mounts. By this I mean snaring mounts in allowances, maidens, and claiming races that he hasn't been riding. He has almost a sixth sense of what horse is sitting on a win in what condition and noone alive has a better record of choosing between two live mounts for his jockey and picking the right one.
Frieze will work tirelessly between now and the final entries taken on saturday for Monday's card to win the title and he will prevail. Even after entries are closed he will make sure if a rider on a live mount is injured and they need a replacement, that he is the first guy to call and get the mount.
Make no mistake about it, insiders know that this race the last week is a clash of the agent titans, and the smart money is on Frieze to prevail. He'll pull out all the stops and put Edgar on live horses in claiming races as well as the others.

[Gander]

Lets take a look at the only 2 contender's for the jockey title mounts with morning lines for Wed:

Prado
1- Defrizz 9/5 (needs help drawing in from also eligibles)
2- Maven 8/1
4- Trust Nobody 3/1
5- Tall Story 9/2 (Hails from the barn of Tommy "if his names not Bernardini he cant win" Albertrani)
6- British Attitude 10/1
7- Ferocious Fires 7/2 (Ole Dutrow)
8- Changeisgonnacome 6/1
9- Hunting Hillbilly 6/1 (needs help drawing in from also eligibles)

Gomez
3- Babyifurgoodtogo 7/2
4- Market Psychology 9/2 (Violette)
5- Trueheart 8/1
6- Ever a Friend 7/2 (Golf Pro Kev says hes better suited for dirt, may get his wish)
7- Trading Pro 4/1 (Violette again)

As has been the case the whole meet, Prado will get a few more mounts than his rival Gomez. I'm very surprised there is even a race at this point. Prado should have him by 7 or 8 with the number of mounts he rides.

This is funny. If it was Frieze/Gomez v Anderson/Prado you would be on here touting Anderson. You are so predictable Oracle. And look at the number of mounts between Prado and Gomez. Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez. Give Gomez the same amount of mounts and he is leading by 5-7 wins. Now for Angel/Velasquez you better believe they care about titles. Titles = money and anyone who believes differently is crazy. Johnny is $120k behind Gomez and $150k or so behind Prado. Still dang good but they are finding out that Johnny V isnt all he is cracked up to be. And trainers are starting to realize the same. But good try on spinning all this Oracle. Very very good try.

[Rupert Pupkin]

It's not as if JV jas been on a light schedule. He has more mounts than Gomez. JV has 24 wins from 156 mounts. He is riding 15% winners. Gomez has 29 wins from 144 mounts. He is riding 20% winners.

You're argument is the famous "tails I win, heads you lose argument". If JV would have beaten Gomez, you'd say that it proves that JV is better than Gomez. But if Gomez beats JV, then it's because of their agents.

Gomez is riding better than anyone right now and everybody who has been watching knows that. Gomez gets more out of a horse than Prado or JV. Gomez has a higher win percentage than Prado which is pretty amazing considering that Prado gets much better mounts.

Gomez' in the money percentage is the best by far. His in the money percenatge is 52%. Prado is in 2nd at 47% and JV is in 3rd at 46%. Gomez will often times be on the 4th or 5th best horse in the race and by giving the perfect ride he will somehow get up for 2nd or 3rd.

I'm too lazy to do the work, but I'd be curious what the median odds have been for Gomez' horses this meet compared to Prado. Median is a much fairer measure than average because one longshot could throw a guy's average way off. In other words, if a guy had 3 mounts for the day and the horses went off at 1-1, 2-1, and 21-1, the average odds of his horses would be 8-1 whereas the median would be 2-1. The median is a fairer representation.

Anyway, I think Prado gets much better mounts than Gomez yet Gomez still has a higher win percentage.

I'm going to steal you word and say that I've enjoyed watching Gomez "school" these guys.

What is even more funny is that Johnny V may fall behind an apprentice this meet. Very doubtful but only 1 win seperates the two.

[Gander]

Gomez had some very cagey rides yesterday. He rode Judy Soda very smartly on the front end. Then he rode Wynsome Wesley (a horse that was most likely "not trying" first time out behind a runaway winner very well resisting the urge to move too quickly. Anybody could have ridden his 3rd winner of the day whatdreamsaremadeof.

As they say in Harvard, Garret is doing "more with less" this year at Saratoga.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

This is funny. If it was Frieze/Gomez v Anderson/Prado you would be on here touting Anderson. You are so predictable Oracle. And look at the number of mounts between Prado and Gomez. Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez. Give Gomez the same amount of mounts and he is leading by 5-7 wins. Now for Angel/Velasquez you better believe they care about titles. Titles = money and anyone who believes differently is crazy. Johnny is $120k behind Gomez and $150k or so behind Prado. Still dang good but they are finding out that Johnny V isnt all he is cracked up to be. And trainers are starting to realize the same. But good try on spinning all this Oracle. Very very good try.

Your math is actually not correct. Gomez is winning at a 20% clip. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect that would give him another 5 winners. That would give him a 2 win lead over Prado.

He is actually 3 wins behind Prado right now. I forgot to include yesterday's results.

[Gander]

I'm just very thankful Garret didnt win the last race
His mount Continuity scared me a bit and "a little birdie" said that horse would be very tough to beat.

Its you two novices who are doing the spinning, not me.
Richi, johnny/Angel are forced to ride all the Pletchers, he can rarely if ever get permission not to. The other two aren't pinned down. Now you can argue that gives johnny some automatic wins, and it does. But it costs Angel the chance to spin to live mounts. In addition, you will note his catch rides are most often for dead barns. the live ones go to Prado because they know he might ride the horse back, whereas Angel always has to tell everyone that he can ride back unles Todd runs something in there.
In terms of number of races won, Prado will always beat Johnny at any meet, not just this one.
And richi, you are insane if you think Gomez hasnt been riding chalk. Look at yesterday!! 4-5, 3-2, and 2-1 were his winners, so you are either a liar or unobservant.
Euro- Anderson is a better agent perhaps at securing stakes mounts, but in everyday competition Frieze is the King. Not known as a particularly warm and fuzzy guy, he always has the edge and thinks three steps ahead.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Your math is actually not correct. Gomez is winning at a 20% clip. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect that would give him another 5 winners. That would give him a 2 win lead over Prado.

He is actually 3 wins behind Prado right now. I forgot to include yesterday's results.

Trust me, richi, Frieze will always get his rider more mounts than anyone else.
Hes the best pure condition book reading/knowing who is eligible and ready to win in that spot guy at the track. Ask anyone who knows Ny racing on the inside.
And I know you are smart enough to see why Angel/Johnny won't win any riding titles at any track anytime soon, if ever. Todd is about a 21% trainer in Ny. And johnny rides most of em. But if you peruse the DRF here ona daily basis you will see he longer rides often or at all forutrow, Violette, Mott, McGaughey, Levine,Zito, Contessa, or Asmussen. Its hard to deal with the situation. You use him on a maiden and he wins impressively and you need to get a new rider next time out most of the time, because he will spin you for Pletcher.

Did everyone forget Velazquez had a serious injury in late April? Rushed back in early June. Do you honestly expect him to be back to normal by now? I think he's doing outstanding considering the injuries he suffered.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Its you two novices who are doing the spinning, not me.
Richi, johnny/Angel are forced to ride all the Pletchers, he can rarely if ever get permission not to. The other two aren't pinned down. Now you can argue that gives johnny some automatic wins, and it does. But it costs Angel the chance to spin to live mounts. In addition, you will note his catch rides are most often for dead barns. the live ones go to Prado because they know he might ride the horse back, whereas Angel always has to tell everyone that he can ride back unles Todd runs something in there.
In terms of number of races won, Prado will always beat Johnny at any meet, not just this one.
And richi, you are insane if you think Gomez hasnt been riding chalk. Look at yesterday!! 4-5, 3-2, and 2-1 were his winners, so you are either a liar or unobservant.
Euro- Anderson is a better agent perhaps at securing stakes mounts, but in everyday competition Frieze is the King. Not known as a particularly warm and fuzzy guy, he always has the edge and thinks three steps ahead.

Of course Gomez rides some chalk. They all do. I'm not interested if he rode chalk yesterday. I'm interested in the median price of his horses for the meet. That's all that matters. It doesn't matter whether he rode chalk yesterday or over the weekend. I'm interested in how much chalk he rode for the meet out of his 144 mounts.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Did everyone forget Velazquez had a serious injury in late April? Rushed back in early June. Do you honestly expect him to be back to normal by now? I think he's doing outstanding considering the injuries he suffered.

That has ZERo effect. He is 100% healed.

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by Gander

Lets take a look at the only 2 contender's for the jockey title mounts with morning lines for Wed:

Prado
1- Defrizz 9/5 (needs help drawing in from also eligibles)
2- Maven 8/1
4- Trust Nobody 3/1
5- Tall Story 9/2 (Hails from the barn of Tommy "if his names not Bernardini he cant win" Albertrani)
6- British Attitude 10/1
7- Ferocious Fires 7/2 (Ole Dutrow)
8- Changeisgonnacome 6/1
9- Hunting Hillbilly 6/1 (needs help drawing in from also eligibles)

Gomez
3- Babyifurgoodtogo 7/2
4- Market Psychology 9/2 (Violette)
5- Trueheart 8/1
6- Ever a Friend 7/2 (Golf Pro Kev says hes better suited for dirt, may get his wish)
7- Trading Pro 4/1 (Violette again)

As has been the case the whole meet, Prado will get a few more mounts than his rival Gomez. I'm very surprised there is even a race at this point. Prado should have him by 7 or 8 with the number of mounts he rides.

Exactly, and you also have to hand it more to Anderson because Prado is in his own backyard, he has a well established client base dating back for years, Gomez is stepping in as the new guy on the block, who thinks Prado would have been anywhere near Gomez at Del Mar? I say Garrett Gomez deserves a big round of applause for being schooled so badly by the East Coast superior riders, ( I love JV's excuse) lol!!! Its sure never stopped Bailey from racking up meet titles at the Spa!!!!

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Your math is actually not correct. Gomez is winning at a 20% clip. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect that would give him another 5 winners. That would give him a 2 win lead over Prado.

He is actually 3 wins behind Prado right now. I forgot to include yesterday's results.

You have to also have ti factor in the number of mounts each is going to have at the end of the year. Prado will have many more mounts than Gomez. Predicting the difference then factoring in the win % will give you about 7-9 more wins for Gomez. Therefore giving him a 5-7 lead in wins. You have to look into the future my friend.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

That has ZERo effect. He is 100% healed.

Sure thing, doc.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Sure thing, doc.

Velasquez is the one who said that is 100%

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Velasquez is the one who said that is 100%

Of course he's going to say that.

Do you actually believe he is the same rider he was before the injury? Please tell me you do because the stats say otherwise. Obviously the guy is not 100% right now. But he will be and i'll flat out say that he'll repeat as top jock at Gulfstream this winter.

He sure looks 100% to me. But he simply doesnt get the mounts on a daily basis to compete for a win title. Now if you want to accuse me of redboarding i can show you the post i made before the meet began in which i stated that Prado was 3-5 to win the title in my mind. Its there, look it up.
If hes riding so badly then explain to me all the bad rides hes given and cite examples. hes not. just because the public bets a Pletcher horse down doesnt give it a shot. His catch mounts are just awful and I dont really think he or Angel care. They are all about the money.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

You have to also have ti factor in the number of mounts each is going to have at the end of the year. Prado will have many more mounts than Gomez. Predicting the difference then factoring in the win % will give you about 7-9 more wins for Gomez. Therefore giving him a 5-7 lead in wins. You have to look into the future my friend.

You are bad with stats, Gomez is 1% higher than prado at the meet, thats it.