Spa jockey/agent title race

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

You have to also have ti factor in the number of mounts each is going to have at the end of the year. Prado will have many more mounts than Gomez. Predicting the difference then factoring in the win % will give you about 7-9 more wins for Gomez. Therefore giving him a 5-7 lead in wins. You have to look into the future my friend.

If Gomez rides at a 20% clip, he would have 2 more wins than Prado right now if he had the same number of mounts as Prado. This isn't rocket science. If Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez and Gomez rides at a 20% clip, that means an additional 25 mounts would give him an addtional 5 wins.

If you are saying that Gomez would have a 5-7 win lead if he had as many mounts as Prado, that means that you would be expecting Gomez to win 8-10 races from an additional 25 mounts. That's not realistic. It could happen, but that's not what a statistician would predict. A statistician would predict that Gomez would get about 5 wins for every 25 mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip. 5/25=20%.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

You are bad with stats, Gomez is 1% higher than prado at the meet, thats it.

That is correct.

Originally Posted by oracle80

He sure looks 100% to me. But he simply doesnt get the mounts on a daily basis to compete for a win title. Now if you want to accuse me of redboarding i can show you the post i made before the meet began in which i stated that Prado was 3-5 to win the title in my mind. Its there, look it up.
If hes riding so badly then explain to me all the bad rides hes given and cite examples. hes not. just because the public bets a Pletcher horse down doesnt give it a shot. His catch mounts are just awful and I dont really think he or Angel care. They are all about the money.

Gomez has really cut into John's business due to the injury. Maybe i'm wrong and he is 100% physically and mentally.

If John didn't suffer the injury the goo goo ga ga over Gomez would probably be about his meet at Del Mar.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If Gomez rides at a 20% clip, he would have 2 more wins than Prado right now if he had the same number of mounts as Prado. This isn't rocket science. If Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez and Gomez rides at a 20% clip, that means an additional 25 mounts would give him an addtional 5 wins.

If you are saying that Gomez would have a 5-7 win lead if he had as many mounts as Prado, that means that you would be expecting Gomez to win 8-10 races from an additional 25 mounts. That's not realistic. It could happen, but that's not what a statistician would predict. A statistician would predict that Gomez would get about 5 wins for every 25 mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip. 5/25=20%.

Rup thats not to mention the fact that if Anderson could have ridden 25 more then he would have. Frieze knows that the more mounts he gets the more races he wins. Thast not rocket science either. You are kind of proving my point about the two agents. Frieze' strength is that hes best day to day hustler of a jock i ever saw. People forget that he was the one who made the bailey dynasty happen.

[Gander]

If John didn't suffer the injury the goo goo ga ga over Gomez would probably be about his meet at Del Mar

It was well documented by many on here that this wouldnt or couldnt happen. That as soon as he got healthy, Gomez would be out of here! Cmmon get real, stop making excuses for John V. Hes just not winning his usual amount of races. Deal with it. Maybe he'll have a way better Belmont meet and maybe if hes lucky Garrett will go back to the sunny California shore.

[Gander]

By the way the reason Kent D failed to win a race yesterday was he was involved in a car accident on Saturday night and still sore. You want excuses, I have some too.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Gomez has really cut into John's business due to the injury. Maybe i'm wrong and he is 100% physically and mentally.

If John didn't suffer the injury the goo goo ga ga over Gomez would probably be about his meet at Del Mar.

Noone has cut into Johnny's business except johnny and Angel.
I know most won't understand what i am saying but I will try again. trainers like to ride a guy on a horse, especially a good one, that they think the jock will ride back. In Johnny's case its almost impossible for Angel to promise that. he has to ride for Todd, thats part of the deal. So he cant commit to a horse past one race for another trainer,
he got henny Hughes because todd didnt have a horse running in the Kings Bishop, doesnt have one pointing towards the Vosburgh, and doesnt have one pointing at the BC sprint. Therefore Angel was able to give Kiarin a three race committment. I know for a fact from Coa's agent who is afriend of mine that he was the other guy being considered. If Angel had not been able to give a three race committment with Todd's blessing, Coa would haev ridden him on saturday.
But in most cases Angel can't give anything more than a one race committment, and thats always gonna cost you. Trainers have huge egos and hate being second fiddle.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rup thats not to mention the fact that if Anderson could have ridden 25 more then he would have. Frieze knows that the more mounts he gets the more races he wins. Thast not rocket science either. You are kind of proving my point about the two agents. Frieze' strength is that hes best day to day hustler of a jock i ever saw. People forget that he was the one who made the bailey dynasty happen.

The agents can definitely make a difference. The agents are certainly a factor. I'm not denying that.

But the best jocks usually end up with the best agents.

Originally Posted by Gander

If John didn't suffer the injury the goo goo ga ga over Gomez would probably be about his meet at Del Mar

It was well documented by many on here that this wouldnt or couldnt happen. That as soon as he got healthy, Gomez would be out of here! Cmmon get real, stop making excuses for John V. Hes just not winning his usual amount of races. Deal with it. Maybe he'll have a way better Belmont meet and maybe if hes lucky Garrett will go back to the sunny California shore.

Tim don't you get it. he won't have a "way better meet' at belmont. His meets depend upon Todd's success. he doesnt want Angel naming him on cheap claimers, and rides very few. And if hes riding so bad why can't just one guy here name soem bad rides he gave. Other than Vig, I can't think of any case where he cost a horse a win.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Noone has cut into Johnny's business except johnny and Angel.
I know most won't understand what i am saying but I will try again. trainers like to ride a guy on a horse, especially a good one, that they think the jock will ride back. In Johnny's case its almost impossible for Angel to promise that. he has to ride for Todd, thats part of the deal. So he cant commit to a horse past one race for another trainer,
he got henny Hughes because todd didnt have a horse running in the Kings Bishop, doesnt have one pointing towards the Vosburgh, and doesnt have one pointing at the BC sprint. Therefore Angel was able to give Kiarin a three race committment. I know for a fact from Coa's agent who is afriend of mine that he was the other guy being considered. If Angel had not been able to give a three race committment with Todd's blessing, Coa would haev ridden him on saturday.
But in most cases Angel can't give anything more than a one race committment, and thats always gonna cost you. Trainers have huge egos and hate being second fiddle.

Of course that is a factor. If a trainer has a good horse like Henny, he's going to want a committment from a jock.

When you ride first call for a guy, there are definitely some negatives. But overall, riding first call for Pletcher is a huge positive. It got JV $20 million in purses last year and an Eclipse award. It usually pretty much guarantees him that he will be on at least 20% winners for Pletcher because Pletcher's win percenatge is always over 20%.

Originally Posted by Gander

If John didn't suffer the injury the goo goo ga ga over Gomez would probably be about his meet at Del Mar

It was well documented by many on here that this wouldnt or couldnt happen. That as soon as he got healthy, Gomez would be out of here! Cmmon get real, stop making excuses for John V. Hes just not winning his usual amount of races. Deal with it. Maybe he'll have a way better Belmont meet and maybe if hes lucky Garrett will go back to the sunny California shore.

I'm already over it. The only reason why I responded because it seems like everyday there is a Gomez thread and Velazquez is getting slammed in it. Rest assured when Gomez has a dry spell I won't come on here and make a bunch of posts just to get under a Gomez fans skin. I know Gomez is a great rider. Even the best have a cold streak. But you would think by reading the posts about John V. is that he's somehow less of a rider than Gomez and Prado and that is simply not the case.

You know John is great when there is a thread about him because of a cold streak. If threads were made for every jockey in the top 100 who has a cold streak the site would probably slow to a crawl due to all of the bandwidth being used up.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Of course that is a factor. If a trainer has a good horse like Henny, he's going to want a committment from a jock.

When you ride first call for a guy, there are definitely some negatives. But overall, riding first call for Pletcher is a huge positive. It got JV $20 million in purses last year and an Eclipse award. It usually pretty much guarantees him that he will be on at least 20% winners for Pletcher because Pletcher's win percenatge is always over 20%.

Rupert OF COURSE thats the point, I agree 100%. The deal they have made with todd virtually gurantees them a million-2 million a year in income. In addition there is more to it than you may know! Angel is still considered the best exercise rider around here. Hes still magic on a horse. By giving thjem this deal it frees Angel from having to hustle mounts in the morning and as a result he exercises for todd all morning.
Its the perfect business deal for everyone involved. Its guranteed income for Angel and johnny and Todd is guranteed Johnny on his horses in the afternoon and Angel on his horses in the morning.
All I'm saying is that its unrealistic to expect them to ever win a title again as far as most wins go. Angel can't hustle catch mounts, nor does he want to, lol. He gets to do whathe loves each morning and make a ton of cash each year.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If Gomez rides at a 20% clip, he would have 2 more wins than Prado right now if he had the same number of mounts as Prado. This isn't rocket science. If Prado has 25 more mounts than Gomez and Gomez rides at a 20% clip, that means an additional 25 mounts would give him an addtional 5 wins.

If you are saying that Gomez would have a 5-7 win lead if he had as many mounts as Prado, that means that you would be expecting Gomez to win 8-10 races from an additional 25 mounts. That's not realistic. It could happen, but that's not what a statistician would predict. A statistician would predict that Gomez would get about 5 wins for every 25 mounts. He is riding at a 20% clip. 5/25=20%.

UUGGHH--someone help me here. You have to take into account the end result of the difference in mounts at the end of the meet. At the end of the meet Prado could have 35 more mounts that Gomez. That is 7 more wins. Giving Gomez a 5 race lead. Jeses Rupert--do you understand now. The 25 mount difference isnt going to he held constant throughout the meet.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rupert OF COURSE thats the point, I agree 100%. The deal they have made with todd virtually gurantees them a million-2 million a year in income. In addition there is more to it than you may know! Angel is still considered the best exercise rider around here. Hes still magic on a horse. By giving thjem this deal it frees Angel from having to hustle mounts in the morning and as a result he exercises for todd all morning.
Its the perfect business deal for everyone involved. Its guranteed income for Angel and johnny and Todd is guranteed Johnny on his horses in the afternoon and Angel on his horses in the morning.
All I'm saying is that its unrealistic to expect them to ever win a title again as far as most wins go. Angel can't hustle catch mounts, nor does he want to, lol. He gets to do whathe loves each morning and make a ton of cash each year.

JV's win percenatge is still way down this meet. He usually does better than 15% winners.

By the way, didn't JV have the most wins at some meets last year? I thought he was leading rider quite often in terms of wins the last few years in New York.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

JV's win percenatge is still way down this meet. He usually does better than 15% winners.

By the way, didn't JV have the most wins at some meets last year? I thought he was leading rider quite often in terms of wins the last few years in New York.

He wasnt last year. They cut back on riding claimers and cheaper horses. His percentage is down because Todd's is down and if you go back and look at the charts you will see him not riding for one powerful stable other than Todd's. His catch mounts are dreadful. I bet if you took his average odds on horses other than Todds you would find them to be quite high for a rider of his magnitude. But richi you have to understand, LOL!!!, in the morning the other agents are seen are all over the backsides in their golf carts hitting each barn like salesman on a route trying to get mounts. Then you see Angel come out with this red flak vest on another pletcher mount and breeze 5/8th's on Flower Alley! LOL!!

Originally Posted by oracle80

You are bad with stats, Gomez is 1% higher than prado at the meet, thats it.

That isnt the stat we are viewing Oracle--you are funny. That stat is based on the number of mounts vs number of wins. We are assuming that Gomez is riding at 20% clip based on his number of mounts. If you have him 25 more mounts (equals Prado) then he will have 5 more wins like Rupert has said. That would give him a 2 race lead. But what you have to take into account is the Prado will have more than 25 more mounts than Gomez. I predict that he will end up having 33-36 more mounts.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

That isnt the stat we are viewing Oracle--you are funny. That stat is based on the number of mounts vs number of wins. We are assuming that Gomez is riding at 20% clip based on his number of mounts. If you have him 25 more mounts (equals Prado) then he will have 5 more wins like Rupert has said. That would give him a 2 race lead. But what you have to take into account is the Prado will have more than 25 more mounts than Gomez. I predict that he will end up having 33-36 more mounts.

Thats where YOU are funny. I made the premise that Frieze was better at day to day hustling than anyone else, and you scoffed at it.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

UUGGHH--someone help me here. You have to take into account the end result of the difference in mounts at the end of the meet. At the end of the meet Prado could have 35 more mounts that Gomez. That is 7 more wins. Giving Gomez a 5 race lead. Jeses Rupert--do you understand now. The 10 mount difference isnt going to he held constant throughout the meet.

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You say that the mount difference will not be constant and you are correct about that. But neither will the win difference. As of right now, these two jocks have pretty much the same win percentage. If two guys have the same win percentage, that means they will have an equal number of winners if they have the same number of mounts. That is the reason we look at win percentage. If one guy has 60 wins from 300 mounts, and another guy has 40 wins from 200 mounts, what conclusion would you draw? I would conclude that they are both riding at a 20% clip and if they had an eual number of mounts they would have the same number of wins.

What is so confusing about that?

Originally Posted by oracle80

Thats where YOU are funny. I made the premise that Frieze was better at day to day hustling than anyone else, and you scoffed at it.

I didnt scoff at that fact. In fact, I dont think I disagreed with you either. I just said you would be touting Anderson/Prado before you would Frieze/Gomez.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I didnt scoff at that fact. In fact, I dont think I disagreed with you either. I just said you would be touting Anderson/Prado before you would Frieze/Gomez.

Thats where you are wrong. If Gomez had frieze even three behind as he is now, I'd still bet Frieze. Nice to know you actually are a sick enough guy to think you know my thoughts better than me, lol.