Maidens 2nd Time Out

[PSH]

In analyzing many of my plays i find that i get burned probably most often playing maidens second time out off of a good (or troubled trip) first time effort. Yesterday, again that happened at Saratoga in the 2nd and 4th races with the Darley horse in the 2nd and Dutrow's horse in the 4th. More often than not these 2nd time outers ran a really nice figure in their first start and are often many points ahead of their competitors from a sheet or beyer standpoint. Obviously, they are well bet second time out and also seem to bounce.....

I guess that happens in youngsters - 2YO and 3YO of age.
My point is more directed at me to stop playing these type of races.
Any one else notice this pattern?

PSH

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by PSH

In analyzing many of my plays i find that i get burned probably most often playing maidens second time out off of a good (or troubled trip) first time effort. Yesterday, again that happened at Saratoga in the 2nd and 4th races with the Darley horse in the 2nd and Dutrow's horse in the 4th. More often than not these 2nd time outers ran a really nice figure in their first start and are often many points ahead of their competitors from a sheet or beyer standpoint. Obviously, they are well bet second time out and also seem to bounce.....

I guess that happens in youngsters - 2YO and 3YO of age.
My point is more directed at me to stop playing these type of races.
Any one else notice this pattern?

PSH

A few thoughts.
1. I don't play back 2 yo's which Beyered higher than 85 in a losing effort. Combination of bounce and price keep me away from that.
2. I do like to play back speed/fade second outers as long as they beat 1/2 of a 10 horse field first out and have reason to improve today.
3. I especially favor second-out sprinters that ran first out from an inside post and are moving to a better post.
4. I downgrade late runners which passed a number of horses in their first start. There's no guarantee they'll show better speed next out.
5. Keep an eye on field size. A horse that finished 4th in it's debut in a 6 horse field is far less worthy than one that finshed 4th in a 10 or 11 horse field.
6. Don't take too a short price on any maiden. If a horse is 4/5 and looks 4/5, I pass. What's the point? You can't beat these kind of races.

Standard stuff, I guess.

[PSH]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

A few thoughts.
1. I don't play back 2 yo's which Beyered higher than 85 in a losing effort. Combination of bounce and price keep me away from that.
2. I do like to play back speed/fade second outers as long as they beat 1/2 of a 10 horse field first out and have reason to improve today.
3. I especially favor second-out sprinters that ran first out from an inside post and are moving to a better post.
4. I downgrade late runners which passed a number of horses in their first start. There's no guarantee they'll show better speed next out.
5. Keep an eye on field size. A horse that finished 4th in it's debut in a 6 horse field is far less worthy than one that finshed 4th in a 10 or 11 horse field.
6. Don't take too a short price on any maiden. If a horse is 4/5 and looks 4/5, I pass. What's the point? You can't beat these kind of races.

Standard stuff, I guess.

Thanks Sent to Stud. Just think i needed someone to whack me a few times with a 2x4... Realize i need to stop and your points are well taken.

PSH

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

A few thoughts.
1. I don't play back 2 yo's which Beyered higher than 85 in a losing effort. Combination of bounce and price keep me away from that.
2. I do like to play back speed/fade second outers as long as they beat 1/2 of a 10 horse field first out and have reason to improve today.
3. I especially favor second-out sprinters that ran first out from an inside post and are moving to a better post.
4. I downgrade late runners which passed a number of horses in their first start. There's no guarantee they'll show better speed next out.
5. Keep an eye on field size. A horse that finished 4th in it's debut in a 6 horse field is far less worthy than one that finshed 4th in a 10 or 11 horse field.
6. Don't take too a short price on any maiden. If a horse is 4/5 and looks 4/5, I pass. What's the point? You can't beat these kind of races.

Standard stuff, I guess.

S2S...good stuff!