TG figure for the Preakness

[smuthg]

Has anyone heard what Rachel's and Bird's "sheet" numbers were for the Preakness? Thanks

[Kasept]

She got a "0". Bird a ".5". Musket a "2.25".

Very close to what I suggested Saturday night and further confirmation that the Beyers are a bit high for the race.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...760#post525760

[Kasept]

Complete PREAKNESS DAY CARD final TG figures are available for review:
http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...m1699s_09f.pdf

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by Kasept

She got a "0". Bird a ".5". Musket a "2.25".

Very close to what I suggested Saturday night and further confirmation that the Beyers are a bit high for the race.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...760#post525760

Very interesting. Thanks Steve.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Complete PREAKNESS DAY CARD final TG figures are available for review:
http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...m1699s_09f.pdf

Thanks Steve. Everyday Heroes ran HUGE.

What would you say a "0" figure equals in a Beyer with no ground loss? I always guesstimated at about 102 but that was a shot in the dark.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Thanks Steve. Everyday Heroes ran HUGE.

What would you say a "0" figure equals in a Beyer with no ground loss? I always guesstimated at about 102 but that was a shot in the dark.

For what it is worth, a while back Silver Deputy came up with 104 - 3*(TG number) which would make a 0 a 104. He also came up with 113.65 - 2.786*(Ragozin) which isn't quite so user friendly.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

For what it is worth, a while back Silver Deputy came up with 104 - 3*(TG number) which would make a 0 a 104. He also came up with 113.65 - 2.786*(Ragozin) which isn't quite so user friendly.

Thanks- that does make sense though, since the general Rag to TG conversion is approximately -3.

[10 pnt move up]

I thought this was a gem from Brown (T-graph):

"I made points in my rundown both as to why MTB might bounce and why he might not. I said that because he might have liked the off track, figured to get a wider trip this time, and would be relatively short,he was tough to use. I also made the point RIGHT AFTER THE DERBY that he didn't have to bounce. "

So your methodology did not yield a definitive conclusion if the horse would bounce...but traditional handicapping, you know the perfect trip in the derby, the slop, and the odds prevented you from liking him.

Its probably me but thats funny for $25 bucks.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I thought this was a gem from Brown (T-graph):

"I made points in my rundown both as to why MTB might bounce and why he might not. I said that because he might have liked the off track, figured to get a wider trip this time, and would be relatively short,he was tough to use. I also made the point RIGHT AFTER THE DERBY that he didn't have to bounce. "

So your methodology did not yield a definitive conclusion if the horse would bounce...but traditional handicapping, you know the perfect trip in the derby, the slop, and the odds prevented you from liking him.

Its probably me but thats funny for $25 bucks.

one thing about it he seemed to have all bases covered weather MTB won ran 2nd, 3rd or off the Board to be honest it is kind of funny

[smuthg]

What is the weight adjustment in those figures? For some reason, I was thinking that 1 lbs was equal to a 1/4 point, or something along those lines.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I thought this was a gem from Brown (T-graph):

"I made points in my rundown both as to why MTB might bounce and why he might not. I said that because he might have liked the off track, figured to get a wider trip this time, and would be relatively short,he was tough to use. I also made the point RIGHT AFTER THE DERBY that he didn't have to bounce. "

So your methodology did not yield a definitive conclusion if the horse would bounce...but traditional handicapping, you know the perfect trip in the derby, the slop, and the odds prevented you from liking him.

Its probably me but thats funny for $25 bucks.

So basically it boils down to a determination that he may not do as well in the Preakness...but then again he might.

Hell, I'd have sold you that for $15 before they even draped him in roses two weeks ago.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by philcski

Thanks Steve. Everyday Heroes ran HUGE.

What would you say a "0" figure equals in a Beyer with no ground loss? I always guesstimated at about 102 but that was a shot in the dark.

If Rachel got 5 pounds = 1 TGH point and Bird ran a path outside of Rachel. If the TGH is calculated by taking into account path run how does Bird get a number > than Rachel if he lost by less than a length and carried 5 more pounds?

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by smuthg

What is the weight adjustment in those figures? For some reason, I was thinking that 1 lbs was equal to a 1/4 point, or something along those lines.

5 lbs is a point I believe..

[The Indomitable DrugS]

5lbs at 5 furlongs equals one length.

So, RA got almost a 2 length break in weights on that scale.

It's one length per path of ground wide on the turn.

So .. if two horses dead heat going 10fs .. but one carried 5lbs more and was 3 wide on both turn instead of 2 wide on both turns .. said horse would get a sheet figure four lengths faster.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I thought this was a gem from Brown (T-graph):

"I made points in my rundown both as to why MTB might bounce and why he might not. I said that because he might have liked the off track, figured to get a wider trip this time, and would be relatively short,he was tough to use. I also made the point RIGHT AFTER THE DERBY that he didn't have to bounce. "

So your methodology did not yield a definitive conclusion if the horse would bounce...but traditional handicapping, you know the perfect trip in the derby, the slop, and the odds prevented you from liking him.

Its probably me but thats funny for $25 bucks.

The specific Preakness card analysis was $15. Full sheets for a single card are $25. And it's about interpretation of the figures and patterns, and even Jerry isn't right 100% of the time or able to guarantee how every horse in 20 or 13 horse fields are going to perform.

As someone who utilizes Thoro-Graph and represents the product, my own interpretation of the figs and patterns resulted in my tabbing 1.) Rachel Alexandra, 2.) Musket Man and 3.) Mine That Bird as my top three... so clearly that version of the outcome could have been projected by TG sheets users.

And as a sidenote, that $25 for the Preakness card TG's would have put you in position to spot potential performances like No Advatage's ($28), Motown Shuffle's ($40) and Everyday Heroes ($16) in addition to that Preakness Triple.

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The specific Preakness card analysis was $15. Full sheets for a single card are $25. And it's about interpretation of the figures and patterns, and even Jerry isn't right 100% of the time or able to guarantee how every horse in 20 or 13 horse fields are going to perform.

As someone who utilizes Thoro-Graph and represents the product, my own interpretation of the figs and patterns resulted in my tabbing 1.) Rachel Alexandra, 2.) Musket Man and 3.) Mine That Bird as my top three... so clearly that version of the outcome could have been projected by TG sheets users.

And as a sidenote, that $25 for the Preakness card TG's would have put you in position to spot potential performances like No Advatage's ($28), Motown Shuffle's ($40) and Everyday Heroes ($16) in addition to that Preakness Triple.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The specific Preakness card analysis was $15. Full sheets for a single card are $25. And it's about interpretation of the figures and patterns, and even Jerry isn't right 100% of the time or able to guarantee how every horse in 20 or 13 horse fields are going to perform.

As someone who utilizes Thoro-Graph and represents the product, my own interpretation of the figs and patterns resulted in my tabbing 1.) Rachel Alexandra, 2.) Musket Man and 3.) Mine That Bird as my top three... so clearly that version of the outcome could have been projected by TG sheets users.

And as a sidenote, that $25 for the Preakness card TG's would have put you in position to spot potential performances like No Advatage's ($28), Motown Shuffle's ($40) and Everyday Heroes ($16) in addition to that Preakness Triple.

Of course he is not right 100%, its just funny in such a high profile race that TG rides both sides to cover themselves.

I guess with two straight pairs MTB has to bounce in the Belmont? You use the product, whats your interpratation reading that sheet?

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Of course he is not right 100%, its just funny in such a high profile race that TG rides both sides to cover themselves.

I guess with two straight pairs MTB has to bounce in the Belmont? You use the product, whats your interpratation reading that sheet?

tg makes their analysis available at no charge in their "red board room" for several days AFTER the conclusion of a full days card.

they get plenty wrong, as does anyone who does this for any period of time. they also, as steve pointed out, get a good deal of shockingly fat payouts.

the willingness to make their results, good or bad, available to anyone who wants to look doesn't fit the profile of someone wanting to be right no matter the result.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The specific Preakness card analysis was $15. Full sheets for a single card are $25. And it's about interpretation of the figures and patterns, and even Jerry isn't right 100% of the time or able to guarantee how every horse in 20 or 13 horse fields are going to perform.

As someone who utilizes Thoro-Graph and represents the product, my own interpretation of the figs and patterns resulted in my tabbing 1.) Rachel Alexandra, 2.) Musket Man and 3.) Mine That Bird as my top three... so clearly that version of the outcome could have been projected by TG sheets users.

And as a sidenote, that $25 for the Preakness card TG's would have put you in position to spot potential performances like No Advatage's ($28), Motown Shuffle's ($40) and Everyday Heroes ($16) in addition to that Preakness Triple.

I'll back this up as a TG user... however I would like to note two things. (1) everybody has their own interpretation of patterns, I'm not big on trying to interpret form cycles and "bounces" however I think he produces the BEST raw figures which is why I buy them, and (2) they are less useful on "cheap" horses because they are less likely to run to their previous figures, therefore I only tend to buy them for big meets and big days.

I also think it's important to use them IN CONJUNCTION with traditional (Bris/DRF/Equibase) forms and video because old-school running lines still matter.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Of course he is not right 100%, its just funny in such a high profile race that TG rides both sides to cover themselves.

I guess with two straight pairs MTB has to bounce in the Belmont? You use the product, whats your interpratation reading that sheet?

His pattern shows the likelihood of a slight backwards move. But there's something interesting about a horse like Mine That Bird in these discussions... As a deep closer with one run, he doesn't undergo the same rigor of race stress like a Rachel Alexandra, so there may be less pronounced effect of 'big' efforts and tightly spaced efforts.

At the same time, as a gelding in the spring, and with no steroids to help keep his appetite up, he may be vulnerable to weight loss and tucking up. Horses that run well in the Preakness and Derby, and in this case perhaps the Preakness and Oaks, frequently can 'go south' about 10 days or so after Baltimore.