Why Lukas went downhill

[Honu]

Have any of you guys seen the big signs that D. Wayne has at his barns, the one that says how many world champs he's trained and how many derby winners and blah blah blah. Baffert has the same kind of signs at his barn too.
I wonder why they dont have a sign posting how many horses they trained that never made it to the races or that never started after their 3 yr old year, or that broke down in races and in the mornings? I guess that wouldnt be condusive to getting clients and bragging huh.

[boswd]

Originally Posted by Honu

Have any of you guys seen the big signs that D. Wayne has at his barns, the one that says how many world champs he's trained and how many derby winners and blah blah blah. Baffert has the same kind of signs at his barn too.
I wonder why they dont have a sign posting how many horses they trained that never made it to the races or that never started after their 3 yr old year, or that broke down in races and in the mornings? I guess that wouldnt be condusive to getting clients and bragging huh.

The same reason why you don't see Colleges put up banners indicating a losing season.

[prudery]

Originally Posted by Honu

Have any of you guys seen the big signs that D. Wayne has at his barns, the one that says how many world champs he's trained and how many derby winners and blah blah blah. Baffert has the same kind of signs at his barn too.
I wonder why they dont have a sign posting how many horses they trained that never made it to the races or that never started after their 3 yr old year, or that broke down in races and in the mornings? I guess that wouldnt be condusive to getting clients and bragging huh.

Exactly so .

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Honu

Have any of you guys seen the big signs that D. Wayne has at his barns, the one that says how many world champs he's trained and how many derby winners and blah blah blah. Baffert has the same kind of signs at his barn too.
I wonder why they dont have a sign posting how many horses they trained that never made it to the races or that never started after their 3 yr old year, or that broke down in races and in the mornings? I guess that wouldnt be condusive to getting clients and bragging huh.

I don't think most people even realize how extreme it is. Of all the yearlings and 2 year olds that Lukas gets, I would guess that no more than 1-2% of them are still running competively as 4 and 5 year olds. When do you ever see Lukas winning a race with a 4 or 5 year old? Practically never. I would guess that 98% of his horses don't last passed their 3 year old year. It has nothing to do with the horses being retired for breeding before they get that old. How many horses stand at stud? It can't be more than 5% of his horses. So that certainly doesn't explain 98% of his horses being retired ny the end of their 3 year old year.

If you look at trainers like Mandella, Frankel, Plethcer, etc. I'll bet that around 30-40% of their horses are still around and racing as 4 and 5 year olds. That's a helluva lot higher than 1% or 2%. It's possible that Lukas' number could be a tiny bit higher than my estimate. The number could be more like 5% if you count horses like Going Wild that are still running, but who aren't half the horse that they used to be. Going wild used to be competitive in graded stakes races. Now he can't even win an allowance race. If you count horses like him, then Lukas' number of horses still running as 4 and 5 year olds could possibly be about 5%. But if you are talking about horses that are still at the top of their game, then I think the number is about 1% or 2%.

[Pointg5]

Rupert's views on D Wayne = Brooklytracker's obsession with Jerry Bailey

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Rupert with all due respect you are guessing at the percentages you have posted here. 2 of the other 3 trainers you have mentioned are a completely different kind of trainer than DWL, or Pletcher for that matter. Frankel and Mandella tend to be real patient with their horses, and only a select few race as two year olds. TP and DWL bread and butter is 2 and 3 year old racing. They are given the high priced horses, and have a responsibility to earn the blacktype, so they can be sold, or used as sires or broodmares. Seriously, as much as I like TP, do you really see him with a lot of 4 and 5 year olds. Hardly, just as you don't see Frankel and Mandella with a lot of 2 year olds. Also, Lukas has a ton of horses standing at stud, come on now.

Pletcher does very well with 4 and 5 year olds. He's winning stakes races all the time on both the turf and dirt with older horses. Pletcher has probably won 15-20 stakes races this year with older horses. Just this past weekend he won a $300,000 grass race with the 4 year old filly Ready's Gal at Woodbine. In addition, he's probably won 30 allowance races this with older horses. I think Lukas may have won 1 stakes race this year with an older horse.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Pletcher does very well with 4 and 5 year olds. He's winning stakes races all the time on both the turf and dirt with older horses. Pletcher has probably won 15-20 stakes races this year with older horses. Just this past weekend he won a $300,000 grass race with the 4 year old filly Ready's Gal at Woodbine. In addition, he's probably won 30 allowance races this with older horses. I think Lukas may have won 1 stakes race this year with an older horse.

The more I think about it, Pletcher has probably won more like 30-40 stakes races this year with older horses. Just off the top of my head, thinking about Pletcher horses that ran the last couple of weekends, Go Deputy(6year old) comes to mind. He's won 3 races this year, two of which were graded stakes races. Pletcher had a 4 year old filly this past weekend at Belmont named Ever Elusive. She's won 2 allowance races and a stakes race this year.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Well, lets be realistic here, Lukas is no longer the same trainer he once was. In his prime he was a major force in most divisions. Pletcher may do well with the ones he has, but he has no older males making any noise, 2 older turf fillies, no sprinters. He is very loaded in the older filly and mare division, but so was Lukas back in the day.

The main thing that I'm talking about is the percentage of their horses that are still around as 4 and 5 year old and still running well. You can't compare Pletcher to Lukas. Pletcher has a very high percent of his horses that are still around running better than ever as 4 and 5 year olds. Lukas does not.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Well I disagree, if Pletcher has 200 or so horses, he has maybe 25 or so, max, still running at 4 or 5. What about Baffert, how many 4 or 5 year olds does he have running? Would you not agree that they are the three biggest when it comes to 2 and 3 year olds, and maybe add in Asmussen. How many 2 year olds does Frankel, Mandella, Drysdale run? Not many. They are different kinds of trainers.

That is true that Frankel, Mandella, and Drysdale are different types of trainers from Lukas. I agree with that. But even though they are different, they still do well with young horses. Mandella just won the Del Mar Futurity. He's won the BC Juvenille and the BC Juvenille Filly. The good trainers listen to their horses. Sure these guys want to win 2 year old races. Sure they want to win the Derby. But they're not going to push the horse if the horse isn't ready or if the horse is getting sore. That's my whole point.

I think Pletcher has more than 25 horses left out of 200. If that was all that he had left, he wouldn't be winning so many races with 4 and 5 year olds. He's won a ton of races with 4 and 5 year olds this year.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I know what Mandella has won, but it could go both ways. Lukas has won BC Classics, Distaffs, Sprints, Miles all with older. I agree wholeheartedly with what you are saying about Mandella, Drysdale and Frankel. I may be a bit off with the number of older that Pletcher has, but I would bet it is no more than 1/3 of his operation, and that's how Lukas used to be. My point, and it was not to argue, was Baffert and Pletcher, to a slight degree are the same kind of trainer Lukas is, therefore their older horse numbers will never be the same with guys like Mandella or Frankel. Just like Mandella will never have the same kinds of numbers with 2 and 3 year olds as baffert and Lukas.

Baffert is somewhere in between. He is much harder on his horses than Mandella, Drysdale, Frankel, or Pletcher. Baffert works his horses very fast and they don't last nearly as long as the horses of those guys. But Baffert will stop on horses. You will see him turn horses out. He won't just keep running them after they have started to go bad. That is the big difference between him and Lukas. Baffert won't do nearly as well with older horses as Frankel and those guys, but he will do better than Lukas.

I think that Pletcher's numbers with older horses are just as good as Mandella and those guys. Pletcher is amazing. He does great in every category. He even does great with turf horses.

Frankel keeping Ghostzapper together was an amazing feat. I have never liked the guys from interviews, etc... but the guy can get them to run. BT claims its the juice. I think he is very patient and careful.

Even though Lucas is a hall of fame trainer and has so many records, I dont get the feeling he would be to upset if Barbaro or LITF were his horses. Next please kinda thing. Just my feeling about him now.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I agree, Pletcher is great. I guess I grew up thinking so highly about Lukas, which is why I am defending him.

I hear you.