J Davis

[the_fat_man]

Per the NYRA site, going into today, Davis has 10 winners out of 122 mounts, with an average win payoff of $21.80. So, $244 bet, $218 returned. Add today's $129.50 winner and Jacquie is a SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER betting proposition than Dominguez.

After watching her ride on Western Decisions earlier, after I got done LMFAO, I seriously wondered wtf she was doing riding, as bad as she is.

Well, STATS don't lie.

Good thing I stay on top of relevant things such as this.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Per the NYRA site, going into today, Davis has 10 winners out of 122 mounts, with an average win payoff of $21.80. So, $244 bet, $218 returned. Add today's $129.50 winner and Jacquie is a SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER betting proposition than Dominguez.

After watching her ride on Western Decisions earlier, after I got done LMFAO, I seriously wondered wtf she was doing riding, as bad as she is.

Well, STATS don't lie.

Good thing I stay on top of relevant things such as this.

One Day when you grow up you will realize just how stupid you can be

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Per the NYRA site, going into today, Davis has 10 winners out of 122 mounts, with an average win payoff of $21.80. So, $244 bet, $218 returned. Add today's $129.50 winner and Jacquie is a SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER betting proposition than Dominguez.

After watching her ride on Western Decisions earlier, after I got done LMFAO, I seriously wondered wtf she was doing riding, as bad as she is.

Well, STATS don't lie.

Good thing I stay on top of relevant things such as this.

It wasn't the first time that she's ridden a $130 horse to victory.

Even with now multiple victories on 60/1+ longshots - and several wins on horses 20/1 or more ... her career ROI is $1.79 .. she's been riding for all of 1.5 years. It's a value stat - and one in which you can put an odds filter to.

Funny thing - the one jockey who has long been king of this stat you mock is Ramon Dominguez. He showed a significant flat bet profit year after year in turf routes and people would laugh if you suggested he's the best rider in the country.

You think Dominguez has improved any over the last 7 years? Of course he hasn't. Nothing at all has changed. The only thing that has steadily improved has been his reputation with bettors and horseman .. and as that soars you eventually start to get overbet.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Per the NYRA site, going into today, Davis has 10 winners out of 122 mounts, with an average win payoff of $21.80. So, $244 bet, $218 returned. Add today's $129.50 winner and Jacquie is a SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER betting proposition than Dominguez.

After watching her ride on Western Decisions earlier, after I got done LMFAO, I seriously wondered wtf she was doing riding, as bad as she is.

Well, STATS don't lie.

Good thing I stay on top of relevant things such as this.

You do realize that 90% of the horses she gets on are fortunate to have 4 working legs, right? For example... Western Decision, who's been proven time and again to be a useless cripple that should have long ago been retired to a pasture?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yep - those type of horses will steadily drive her shiny new $1.79 ROI down until her next stunning upset pulls her back up to or near that level.

The jockey factor is very minimal .... some are overrated - some are underrated - some help - some hurt. Most hover in the $1.50 to $1.80 range.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yep - those type of horses will steadily drive her shiny new $1.79 ROI down until her next stunning upset pulls her back up to or near that level.

The jockey factor is very minimal .... some are overrated - some are underrated - some help - some hurt. Most hover in the $1.50 to $1.80 range.

In your expert opinion who are the money jocks, if you make a big win bet, who does not bother you? There are the clear cut guys, I like Jeremy Rose and Paco Lopez a bit.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Everyone other than maybe Prado doesn't bother me if I like the horse.

In the West - if I have a speed router I'd prefer Victor Espinoza - if I have an off the pace router give me Rosario.

Rosario's ridden in over 4,200 races in his career and shows a flat bet profit. Espinoza's numbers have been amazing in routes for about 15 years now.

In the East, give me Lezcano on a turf router. Always would have been Dominguez but the value has been beaten out of him finally.

For an up and coming rider - Goncalves has ridden in 1,200 routes - wins 16% - and has a young Dominguez like $2.54 ROI. Big profit every year he's ridden.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Well, STATS don't lie.

Good thing I stay on top of relevant things such as this.

I have an interesting stat for you TFM ... it involves Glenn DiSanto, the trainer of the $129.50 winner your girl Jackie Davis rode today.

Before this race:

Since 2007...

Glenn DiSanto in Maiden Claiming races: 4-for-35 with a $7.01 ROI

Glenn DiSanto in Maiden Special Weight races: 7-for-50 with a $4.67 ROI

Glenn DiSanto in all Non Maiden races: 0-for-126


After this race:

Since 2007...

Glenn DiSanto in MCL races: 5-for-36 with a $10.41 ROI

Glenn DiSanto in MSW races 7-for-50 with a $4.67 ROI

DiSanto in all other races 0-for-126.


Some of the DiSanto maiden highlights before that win include ...

* romping AQU win by 3.5 lengths at 47/1 odds with Amanda Casey up: http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...91030&raceNo=4

* bug girl Amanda Casey again: http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...90709&raceNo=9

* winning by 5 lengths at 61/1 odds at Belmont with a 7lbs bug: http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...81001&raceNo=9

* His 4th NYRA maiden winner of 47/1 or more ... this one paying $131 to win.
http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...70721&raceNo=5


Bad thing I didn't stay on top of something as relevant as that. Actually, it looks very fluky ... a guy winning at 14% with a laughably bad collection of maidens.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

In your expert opinion who are the money jocks, if you make a big win bet, who does not bother you? There are the clear cut guys, I like Jeremy Rose and Paco Lopez a bit.

How is Paco Lopez a money jock? Because he's ridden some nice prices?

I really like him all in all but don't you have to win some races of consequence to be a "money jock"?

Speaking of big time jocks who had s.hitty weeknds, Bejarano was basically a no show at SA on Saturday and the Blind Luck ride was forgettable.

NT

[randallscott35]

Even the best jocks blow some rides. See GG in the 2008 BC Classic.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Speaking of big time jocks who had s.hitty weeknds, Bejarano was basically a no show at SA on Saturday and the Blind Luck ride was forgettable.

I'll remember it. The horse next to her was fractious in the gate and then she started tossing her head around. If he had taken control then the outcome might (would) have been different. JMO.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Speaking of big time jocks who had s.hitty weeknds, Bejarano was basically a no show at SA on Saturday and the Blind Luck ride was forgettable.

NT

Forgettable? This was a race that a 'normal' horse loses. There figured to be NO pace in the race and it turned out this way, as they went 2-1 around the track, with Crisp getting the perfect trip. But we knew going into the race that BL can run AGAINST the GRAIN. All the MONKEY had to do was get her a clear run in the stretch and she wins for fun. Instead he puts her inside and behind for 3/4 of the stretch run and manages to get out a few strides too late. This was a ride that was every bit as bad as the two efforts last year by Gomez on Ventura. This was a ride that the connections had every right to bury their boots deep into Bejarano's ass. That this piece of **** got this game filly beat this way is inexcusable.

On the other hand, there's a thread over at PA about how she's overrated. So, as bad as the ride was, there are opinions about the race that are even worse.

[NTamm1215]

I used the term "forgettable" in the sense that it's probably not one that he wants to remember any time soon. It was a very bad ride.

Perhaps regrettable suits it more.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

How is Paco Lopez a money jock? Because he's ridden some nice prices?

I really like him all in all but don't you have to win some races of consequence to be a "money jock"?

Speaking of big time jocks who had s.hitty weeknds, Bejarano was basically a no show at SA on Saturday and the Blind Luck ride was forgettable.

NT

I said I like them a bit... I agree with Drugs about Prado, if I love a horse hes on I wont bet it or scale way back, he is a mess.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Everyone other than maybe Prado doesn't bother me if I like the horse.

In the West - if I have a speed router I'd prefer Victor Espinoza - if I have an off the pace router give me Rosario.

Rosario's ridden in over 4,200 races in his career and shows a flat bet profit. Espinoza's numbers have been amazing in routes for about 15 years now.

In the East, give me Lezcano on a turf router. Always would have been Dominguez but the value has been beaten out of him finally.

For an up and coming rider - Goncalves has ridden in 1,200 routes - wins 16% - and has a young Dominguez like $2.54 ROI. Big profit every year he's ridden.

What about any 2-turn stakes race at CD?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by miraja2

What about any 2-turn stakes race at CD?

Now there's a money rider.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Now there's a money rider.

NT

I might retire.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Forgettable? This was a race that a 'normal' horse loses. There figured to be NO pace in the race and it turned out this way, as they went 2-1 around the track, with Crisp getting the perfect trip. But we knew going into the race that BL can run AGAINST the GRAIN. All the MONKEY had to do was get her a clear run in the stretch and she wins for fun. Instead he puts her inside and behind for 3/4 of the stretch run and manages to get out a few strides too late. This was a ride that was every bit as bad as the two efforts last year by Gomez on Ventura. This was a ride that the connections had every right to bury their boots deep into Bejarano's ass. That this piece of **** got this game filly beat this way is inexcusable.

On the other hand, there's a thread over at PA about how she's overrated. So, as bad as the ride was, there are opinions about the race that are even worse.

While I agree with your assessment of the ride and that Bejarano absolutely got her beat in a race she had no business losing, I think it's fair to say she's overrated in the sense that she was made the 4-1 favorite in the Oaks future pool which is an absurd price considering it's 7 weeks out and she hasn't moved forward much from her 2yo form (yet.)