How a horse improves by 20+ lengths in a month...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So, essentially, and a bit more succinctly, you're basically saying that you had to do a whole lot of work in order to UNDO the damage done by the figure. Well done.

Did absolutely zero work at all.

1.) I would have studied post position stats for every winter track anyway. I do it every year.

2.) I would have a pace figure for that race anyway.

3.) I would have watched the race and noticed her obvious tough trip.


There was no damage done by the figure anymore than there was damage done to her naked form - because her naked form shows her losing by more than 13 lengths to Jody Slew.

You can't even attempt to quantify how much trouble she had with exactitude - but obviously the vicious pace and incredibly bad trip in tandem caused her to stop to a walk in the final 1/4 mile after running a monster race to the pace call.

I think sane handicapper draws a line through that race ... they also draw a line through her flop at SA on Pro-Ride two back ... that leaves the Frizette as the lone race on her form as a true gauge of her ability.

She won a Grade 1 with a 89 Beyer going a mile in just career start #2 - with healthy progression from age 2 to 3 .. that places her true race in the mid 90's.

In hindsight, I guess I should have taken into consideration that Pletcher's barn is red hot this year and was not red hot when she won the Frizette last year. I think the seemingly invincible Amen Hall also found that final 1/8th a struggle.

None of what I thought going in is the point. The point is that you almost never see the form of a horse improve that sharply in 30 days while possibly running no better than she ran at FG when she was crushed by inferior horses. It's not like she was sick or bothered by something in the FG race. It's not like she was juiced in the GP race.

[the_fat_man]

DrugS

The horse had a horrendous trip at FG --- a trip that, basically, NO horse would've won with. Then, she gets a perfect trip at GP. Where's the need to quantify? Where's the need to explain why she ran 'faster'? Common sense dictates that she certainly ran significantly faster with the easy trip, as any horse that's run off its feet early, making a huge move early in a race where ALL the chasers collapse, would not come home very fast (certainly not as fast as it would with a better setup).

Figures will become relevant, IMO, when we match the figure with the race type and the type of trip the horse had within that type. Point me to someone doing that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jms62

Combining the starters from post 9 and out doesn't give you a realistic picture. Only 1 horse can win a race and based upon your 62/265 stat there were 265 races. Post 8 and out has won 66 of the 265 races.

You really have no idea what you're talking about.

Go look at post stats for all the winter tracks and you'll see FG's sticks out like a sore thumb.

Post 1 66 for 265
Post 7 20 for 225
Post 8 12 for 171
Post 9 7 for 120
Post 10 7 for 87
Post 11 1 for 53

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

DrugS

The horse had a horrendous trip at FG --- a trip that, basically, NO horse would've won with. Then, she gets a perfect trip at GP. Where's the need to quantify? Where's the need to explain why she ran 'faster'? Common sense dictates that she certainly ran significantly faster with the easy trip, as any horse that's run off its feet early, making a huge move early in a race where ALL the chasers collapse, would not come home very fast (certainly not as fast as it would with a better setup).

Figures will become relevant, IMO, when we match the figure with the race type and the type of trip the horse had within that type. Point me to someone doing that.

You have an obsession with trying to point out that knowing how fast a horse runs in a race from start to finish is worthless information.

I'm not even sure what you consider to be non worthless info other than the timing jocks give in their rides.

Tell me how you define what you call a wipeout?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You really have no idea what you're talking about.

Go look at post stats for all the winter tracks and you'll see FG's sticks out like a sore thumb.

Post 1 66 for 265
Post 7 20 for 225
Post 8 12 for 171
Post 9 7 for 120
Post 10 7 for 87
Post 11 1 for 53

Post position #1 has won 62 of 265 FG dirt routes this meet. That's 23.4% wins. Post positions 8 and out are a combined 66 for 907.

I have no idea what I am talking about? 12 + 7 + 7 + 1 = 27 which is a hell of a lot different than 66 which you stated and I commented about.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not even sure what you consider to be non worthless info other than the timing jocks give in their rides.

Tell me how you define what you call a wipeout?

If you get on a track bike and head over to the your local velodrome, or just to your local park and ride with the roadies, you'll realize that timing of moves is, essentially, what it's all about. Now, since Dominguez has shown that horses can be ridden like track bikes, not the way that the in-the-know types insist they should be ridden, it follows that timing is the key factor. Watch just about any race at GG (or WO, etc.) and explain to me how numbers matter when all these jocks do is collapse races. Horses that moved prematurely one week, come back to win the other with a better timed ride. If I have a way of identifying race types and what moves within them were advantageous or disadvantageous AND how a given horse runs within these types, I have a nice alternative to figures. I can see why a horse ran well or poorly, when a horse is coming into form, and, more importantly, whether a horse can run AGAINST its setup. Telling me a horse runs well late, for example, given its pace figure, is basically worthless. This is because you're not telling me whether the horse can close against the grain and not just in races that fall apart.

As for wipeouts, these are races where all the others in the race are retreating, in terms of lengths behind, relative to the winner. This is as good as it gets. Of course, most wipeouts are the result of perfect trips.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jms62

I have no idea what I am talking about? 12 + 7 + 7 + 1 = 27 which is a hell of a lot different than 66 which you stated and I commented about.

Let me try this again ....

Post 6: 19 for 251
Post 7: 20 for 225
Post 8: 12 for 171
Post 9: 7 for 120
Post 10: 7 for 87
Post 11: 1 for 53

That's a combined 66 wins.

Post 1 is 62 for 265.

Sometimes its best looking stuff up instead of going on memory all the time.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me try this again ....

Post 6: 19 for 251
Post 7: 20 for 225
Post 8: 12 for 171
Post 9: 7 for 120
Post 10: 7 for 87
Post 11: 1 for 53

That's a combined 66 wins.

Post 1 is 62 for 265.

Post position #1 has won 62 of 265 FG dirt routes this meet. That's 23.4% wins. Post positions 8 and out are a combined 66 for 907

Now it makes sense and your point is well taken.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jms62

Try again.

I went on memory and should have said 6 instead of 8.

The point is this that 62 for 265 is 23.4%

66 for 907 is 7.3%

23.4% is huge - 7.3% is surprisingly low.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

If you get on a track bike and head over to the your local velodrome, or just to your local park and ride with the roadies, you'll realize that timing of moves is, essentially, what it's all about. Now, since Dominguez has shown that horses can be ridden like track bikes, not the way that the in-the-know types insist they should be ridden, it follows that timing is the key factor. Watch just about any race at GG (or WO, etc.) and explain to me how numbers matter when all these jocks do is collapse races. Horses that moved prematurely one week, come back to win the other with a better timed ride. If I have a way of identifying race types and what moves within them were advantageous or disadvantageous AND how a given horse runs within these types, I have a nice alternative to figures. I can see why a horse ran well or poorly, when a horse is coming into form, and, more importantly, whether a horse can run AGAINST its setup. Telling me a horse runs well late, for example, given its pace figure, is basically worthless. This is because you're not telling me whether the horse can close against the grain and not just in races that fall apart.

What you're talking about is basically trip handicapping.

[Fulla Sheets]

Oscar Berrera Jr claimed a horse named Afrikaner on March 3rd for $10,000. Then enters him into a conditioned $50,000 starters alowance race on March 20. He was eventually scratched though. Is this somewhat like what his father used to do?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I went on memory and should have said 6 instead of 8.

The point is this that 62 for 265 is 23.4%

66 for 907 is 7.3%

23.4% is huge - 7.3% is surprisingly low.

No problem I would do it different as I see it as 265 events not 907 starts but it is your money.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Fulla Sheets

Oscar Berrera Jr claimed a horse named Afrikaner on March 3rd for $10,000. Then enters him into a conditioned $50,000 starters alowance race on March 20. He was eventually scratched though. Is this somewhat like what his father used to do?

Oscar Berrera Jr. is like a training genius compared to what his father was in his final years in the late 80's and early 90's.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jms62

No problem I would do it different as I see it as 265 events not 907 starts but it is your money.

If I posted stats for 20 tracks - and both sprints and routes.. you'll have 40 sets of data.

You'll notice that 39 of the 40 sets look similar - and one FG's dirt routes .. sticks out like a sore thumb with wildly skewed numbers in relation to everywhere else.

In the dirt sprints at FG - post 1 wins 16% - which is only 3 percentage points better than the next best post at 13%.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If I posted stats for 20 tracks - and both sprints and routes.. you'll have 40 sets of data.

You'll notice that 39 of the 40 sets look similar - and one FG's dirt routes .. sticks out like a sore thumb with wildly skewed numbers in relation to everywhere else.

The quy earlier in this thread pointed out that the numbers are much more skewed for the quirky Mile 40...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What you're talking about is basically trip handicapping.

No

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by jms62

The quy earlier in this thread pointed out that the numbers are much more skewed for the quirky Mile 40...

That's all the more telling that saving ground into the first turn is key at FG in dirt routes because 8f and 40 yards is the shortest distance they run in dirt routes.

The further away you start from the first turn - the longer your run into it is - and the more chance you have to move closer to the rail.

Here are the stats for 8f 40y races at FG this meet:

Post 1: 51-for-181 (28.2% wins)

Posts 2 through 5: a combined 81-for-724 (11.2% wins)

Posts 6 and outward: a combined 52-for-704 (7.4% wins)

It looks more dramatic if I don't combine them .. but it also takes more time to type that sh!t up.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

No

Yes, it's an element of trip handicapping anyway ... obviously not the whole process.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Fulla Sheets

Oscar Berrera Jr claimed a horse named Afrikaner on March 3rd for $10,000. Then enters him into a conditioned $50,000 starters alowance race on March 20. He was eventually scratched though. Is this somewhat like what his father used to do?

No he would have entered him in a real allowance race and won off the screen.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

One thing turned me off in a big way about DMC's performance. She finished 13 lengths behind the horse who set the too fast to believe pace. Albeit the pacesetter had far superior tactical position.

That last out pace setter just won the Gr 2 stakes at FG breaking from the rail a few minutes ago.

She went from 5/1 with 5 MTP to paying just $7.80

The Fat Man will note that both horses recieved nicely timed rides from just behind the lead in their Grade 2 wins ... instead of being used hard to score wicked fast pace figures.