Weekend Beyers: Blind Luck 104; Sidney's 100; AmLion 98

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Obviously Beyer looks at them....but what percentage of voters do...and even if they do how much would it possibly affect the outcomes?

I think Crist used them as well in his arguments...so yea some people do, and my point was if the best in the business do to influence the public with their reasoning than they should be at least somewhat accurate.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The 98 Beyer for American Lion in the ILLI Derby is obviously too low.

If you believe the 98 .....

* 2nd place finisher Yawanna Twist regressed a couple points. 2nd time router with a nice trip and being bet hard for Dutrow.

* 3rd place finisher Backtalk went backwards 12 points off his last number

* 4th place finisher Turf Melody went backwards 16 points off of his last number

* 5th place finisher Dave in Dixie went backwards 12 points off of his last number and 23 points off of his two back number.

* 6th place finisher Boulder Creek went backwards 10 points.

* 7th place finisher Stephen's Got Hope went backwards 25 points.

* 8th place finisher Game Ball went backwards 18 points.

The track at Hawthorne was incredible slow ... I wonder if they cut this race loose to get it where they could make it as slow as they did .. or if they just had virtually every single horse running below form all day long?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The 98 Beyer for American Lion in the ILLI Derby is obviously too low.

If you believe the 98 .....

* 2nd place finisher Yawanna Twist regressed a couple points. 2nd time router with a nice trip and being bet hard for Dutrow.

* 3rd place finisher Backtalk went backwards 12 points off his last number

* 4th place finisher Turf Melody went backwards 16 points off of his last number

* 5th place finisher Dave in Dixie went backwards 12 points off of his last number and 23 points off of his two back number.

* 6th place finisher Boulder Creek went backwards 10 points.

* 7th place finisher Stephen's Got Hope went backwards 25 points.

* 8th place finisher Game Ball went backwards 18 points.

The track at Hawthorne was incredible slow ... I wonder if they cut this race loose .. or if they just had virtually every single horse running below form all day long?

Of course Yawanna Twist and Turf Melody ran worse considering the trips/set-ups they had last time. Yawana Twist has had unbelievably good trips in all his races. This trip was, believe it or not, his toughest. How were Turf Melody's numbers before the Gotham?

Backtalk figures to run worse going longer.

Dave in Dixie? That's funny.

The race was dominated on the front end which makes it harder for the closers to have run to their figures. However, those are some big changes. But, it wasn't much of a field.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

What about all of the other route races that day?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What about all of the other route races that day?

What about them?

And why should I care?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I guess you shouldn't. Obviously the days other 6 route races mean nothing at all.

The key to everything is simply knowing that the heavily raced Yawanna Twist has had easy trips throughout his long career.

Do you honestly think either of the first two finishers rate to run figures in the 90s going long in the future?

How about Backtalk? You figure he will run a lot of figs in the mid 80s going 1 1/8 down the road? If he runs in the Derby he makes last very tough to achieve for the others. Hell, he's slow going his best distances.

[blackthroatedwind]

Oh, wait, I got it. You're just pissed that the figure came back what it did because you wanted to post some " look at me " thread about why the figure wouldn't be predictive.

Don't worry.....you had a decent backup plan.

[blackthroatedwind]

But don't worry about it....you can always go to escoteric and post something about one of your brother's ex-girlfriends and a sock.

Or, better yet, say something about " why all the hating on DrugS. "

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

She wins the Oaks if she's not blocked the length of the stretch -- which would've been a ridiculously huge accomplishment. Combined with the Las Virgenes, where Evening Jewel was 'supposed' to win, one gets a sense of how good this filly is. Then, she comes off the surface that supposedly 'favors' her running style and runs what appears to be an identical type of race (haven't done the charts for this yet.).

All I want is some consistency. I want the Beyers to be able to show that this is a good horse, whether on synthetics or dirt --- as she now has proven. Clearly, there are horses that are better on one surface over another but is this really the case here? Did this filly suddenly get good by running a respectable number or was she always good? (note: I don't know what she's run in the past and have made the assumption that her peak was around 90).

16 Beyer points at 8.5F is 1.6 seconds, or about 9 lengths. If the trouble she had in the Oaks was worth 3-4 lengths, and moving to dirt was worth 5-6 lengths (certainly reasonable assumptions, no?) the number makes a lot of sense.

She is absolutely a good horse, and the one to beat on April 30th. Synthetics make her "not as good" a horse as she is on dirt like it does to a lot of horses. Others have about equal ability on both surfaces. A third group move way up on synthetics. The same phenomenon occurs on turf- plenty of turfers can't run a lick on dirt, and excellent dirt horses just look like they're running in place over turf. It's been proven time and again over the last 4 years that synthetics are NOT a replacement for dirt, but rather a 3rd surface, and must be treated as such in both handicapping through speed figures or visual/trip/charting assessments.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I have 4 brothers and I can't even name a single ex gf of theirs.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I have 4 brothers and I can't even name a single ex gf of theirs.

I didn't realize names were necessary.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Only you and The Fat Man can make an 8 point difference of opinion with a speed figure into something personal.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Only you and The Fat Man can make an 8 point difference of opinion with a speed figure into something personal.

Oh, wait, something new in your repertoire....whining.

Do you want a hug?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'd take one from Jessica Pacheco.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Do you honestly think either of the first two finishers rate to run figures in the 90s going long in the future?

How about Backtalk? You figure he will run a lot of figs in the mid 80s going 1 1/8 down the road? If he runs in the Derby he makes last very tough to achieve for the others. Hell, he's slow going his best distances.

Since when does what they might do in the future have any bearing on what this figure should be?

Quite frankly, the Illinois Derby figures have been indefensibly high in the past few years (several of the runners never came close to repeating their number) and it's possible they took the low end of the range when they punched the 98 because of it. Not like anyone watches any other races from Hawthorne to know if the number is good in context.

And yes- I expect Yawanna Twist to run a 90 again... When he's 2-5 in the New York Derby at FL and wins by a pole in preparation for the Albany and Empire Classic.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Only you and The Fat Man can make an 8 point difference of opinion with a speed figure into something personal.

Thanks for the entertainment, boys.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Since when does what they might do in the future have any bearing on what this figure should be?

Quite frankly, the Illinois Derby figures have been indefensibly high in the past few years (several of the runners never came close to repeating their number) and it's possible they took the low end of the range when they punched the 98 because of it. Not like anyone watches any other races from Hawthorne to know if the number is good in context.

And yes- I expect Yawanna Twist to run a 90 again... When he's 2-5 in the New York Derby at FL and wins by a pole in preparation for the Albany and Empire Classic.

It was circular logic to annoy DrugS.

By the way, you are either poorly evaluating this year's crop of NY Bred 3YOs or not really thinking it through....or both.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

War is inevitable.

When BTW is so up in short arms over something like an 8 point difference of opinion in a speed figure at Hawthorne .. it's his way of letting you know the Rubicon has been crossed and the loyal minion army under his full command is ready to strike on all phases of attack.

That's all you got?

I couldn't even understand it.

Now you're interupting 21 Grams.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

You mean you didn't like the 'up in short arms' crack?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You mean you didn't like the 'up in short arms' crack?

It only made me pity you even more.