Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[dalakhani]

I don't know if this has been brought up in another thread but did anyone else think that Willie Martinez totally cost Noble's Promise at least a placing or maybe more in the derby? He was sitting in the garden spot maybe 4 lengths off the dueling leaders. For some inexplicable reason, he decides to start the horse midway around the turn. I don't need to repeat what happened but it looked to me like a terribly premature move.

The dueling leaders had carved out fractions of 22 and 46. Did he think they weren't going to come back especially considering the way the track was playing all day? His move also created the space for the winner to come through, saving ground the whole way.

Noble's Promise has a history of hanging when he makes the lead too soon. He also has a pedigree where distance is a concern.

If I were an owner or Mcpeek, I would be pretty upset and definitely looking to change my jockey for the next race.

[santana]

He had NO chance to get the distance...

[Riot]

I thought he did the best he could with the horse he had. Haven't read the post-game comments from any connections yet.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Nobles Promise = Sam P... A pathetically overrated allowance horse that everyone keeps making excuses for. Throw Dublin in that category as well.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Nobles Promise = Sam P... A pathetically overrated allowance horse that everyone keeps making excuses for. Throw Dublin in that category as well.

He has been in 5 grade 1 races now and has earned a check in every one. Whether he can get a classic distance is another subject but he has proven he belongs at this level. No?

[Danzig]

at the level, yes. distance, probably not. is anyone really surprised a son of cuvee didn't hit the board at 1 1/4? i think 1 1/16th is as far as he wants. never off the board til he ran past that in arkansas and then yesterday.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Nobles Promise = Sam P... A pathetically overrated allowance horse that everyone keeps making excuses for. Throw Dublin in that category as well.

This is crazy talk. Noble's Promise is way better than Sam P. Throwing out his faster than Sam P. figures, the fact that he's been able to do this well beyond a mile is remarkable in itself. He's a very nice horse. Dublin's also a good horse in the wrong hands.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

He has been in 5 grade 1 races now and has earned a check in every one. Whether he can get a classic distance is another subject but he has proven he belongs at this level. No?

It's funny no one was bitching about WM when he was carving up soup cans over the plastic on him as a 2 year old...

1st against nothing in the BC futurity over the plastic
3rd to the LaL (who had no excuse) over the plastic
2nd to LaL (who had no excuse) over the plastic

Those are the only G1 board hits (anyone entered in a G1 "cashes" a check)

Clearly that head beat against LaL in the Rebel was much the best this guy will ever do on dirt...And considering what was in that race now clearly makes the point that he was never a classic distance type - the Ark only reinforced that IMO although I didn't totally discount the trouble he encountered, if he had any shot at a mile and a quarter he should have showed it.

Ice Box has the only legitimate bitch coming to him in the way that race was run - he was clearly the horse to beat - WM gave NP the best opportunity - he just is not that good.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

It's funny no one was bitching about WM when he was carving up soup cans over the plastic on him as a 2 year old...

1st against nothing in the BC futurity over the plastic
3rd to the LaL (who had no excuse) over the plastic
2nd to LaL (who had no excuse) over the plastic

Those are the only G1 board hits (anyone entered in a G1 "cashes" a check)

Clearly that head beat against LaL in the Rebel was much the best this guy will ever do on dirt...And considering what was in that race now clearly makes the point that he was never a classic distance type - the Ark only reinforced that IMO although I didn't totally discount the trouble he encountered, if he had any shot at a mile and a quarter he should have showed it.

Ice Box has the only legitimate bitch coming to him in the way that race was run - he was clearly the horse to beat - WM gave NP the best opportunity - he just is not that good.

Rude,

this is as comprehensively BAD as your opinion of Battle of Hastings yesterday. It's wrong, top to bottom. Of course, when someone like you, who is able to do some cashing, figure (i.e., externally) aided though it might be, can be so dead wrong when it comes to interpreting races, then it sort of puts into perspective why the game remains crushable.

Nothing personal, of course.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Clearly that head beat against LaL in the Rebel was much the best this guy will ever do on dirt...And considering what was in that race now clearly makes the point that he was never a classic distance type - the Ark only reinforced that IMO although I didn't totally discount the trouble he encountered, if he had any shot at a mile and a quarter he should have showed it.

This is a totally different thing from him being an "overrated allowance horse." I don't think anyone ever argued that he was a classic distance horse -- he was, after all, 24-1 in the Derby despite his back class -- and I'm certainly not one who thinks Willie did anything wrong. Because NP has (predictably) failed to stretch his ability past 8 1/2 furlongs, that makes him an overrated allowance horse?

It also isn't as though he got dusted yesterday. He was beaten six lengths. I find it hard to believe you'll see a Cuvee get that close to a Derby win in the near future (or ever).

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I'm certainly not one who thinks Willie did anything wrong.

If you think that the horse ran very well given the setup, then, it follows, that you think that Willie did something wrong.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This is crazy talk. Noble's Promise is way better than Sam P. Throwing out his faster than Sam P. figures, the fact that he's been able to do this well beyond a mile is remarkable in itself. He's a very nice horse. Dublin's also a good horse in the wrong hands.

He needs to get back to CA and run mile and a 16th against the other also-rans over the synthetic -I'll abide the Sam P reference is a bit harsh, but I would think a further progression in the TC or further is a waste

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Rude,

this is as comprehensively BAD as your opinion of Battle of Hastings yesterday. It's wrong, top to bottom. Of course, when someone like you, who is able to do some cashing, figure (i.e., externally) aided though it might be, can be so dead wrong when it comes to interpreting races, then it sort of puts into perspective why the game remains crushable.

Nothing personal, of course.

Thanks Fatty. Given that wager was made a day before the onslaught of weather that precluded the yielding turf, I can live with it.

Rest asssured Belmont will be Augusta National perfect before they dare place a nasty hoofprint over it.. After all it is all about keeping it perfect - not just the fact that it happens to be safe and green at the same time....

I hope you took advantage of the spectacularly clear pace/condition/-minus TRACKUS setup in the finale at Tampa today or the runaway 10-1 shot in the 9th at CD yesterday...

Never personal Bro - I love your insight

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

If you think that the horse ran very well given the setup, then, it follows, that you think that Willie did something wrong.

Not necessarily. I think Willie got the horse into a good spot, not expecting the pace to be quite that fast, then Willie knew that considering the pace and the horse's distance limitations, his best shot was to take the lead in the stretch and see how long he could hold on. It was his only choice, but that still doesn't mean the horse had a particularly easy 10-furlong trip.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Not necessarily. I think Willie got the horse into a good spot, not expecting the pace to be quite that fast, then Willie knew that considering the pace and the horse's distance limitations, his best shot was to take the lead in the stretch and see how long he could hold on. It was his only choice, but that still doesn't mean the horse had a particularly easy 10-furlong trip.

You're describing exactly what he did wrong. He ran early into that fast pace (the only horse to do so), then he ran early again, to basically pass 2 horses that would've quit anyway. Then, he still has enough to engage the winner just enough to collapse the rest of the race and allow the plugs to come from the rear. All he has to do is sit chilly, let the rest of the horses catch up to him and then ask his horse. He's at least 2nd with this type of trip.

Look, the dude isn't much of a jock and I'm describing an advanced move. It just pains me to see this horse repeatedly ridden wrong and, as a result, typecast as a hanger or distance challenged.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're describing exactly what he did wrong. He ran early into that fast pace (the only horse to do so), then he ran early again, to basically pass 2 horses that would've quit anyway. Then, he still has enough to engage the winner just enough to collapse the rest of the race and allow the plugs to come from the rear. All he has to do is sit chilly, let the rest of the horses catch up to him and then ask his horse. He's at least 2nd with this type of trip.

Look, the dude isn't much of a jock and I'm describing an advanced move. It just pains me to see this horse repeatedly ridden wrong and, as a result, typecast as a hanger or distance challenged.

I find that horses with distance limitations who are continually sent longer than they should be have a habit of "being moved early" every race.

[MISTERGEE]

isnt this kinda like wondering why an aging ballplayer hitting less the .200 would strike out 3 times in a ballgame?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I find that horses with distance limitations who are continually sent longer than they should be have a habit of "being moved early" every race.

He was also moved early at KEE and the BC (which he completely SCREWED up). Is your contention that he can't get 8.5F?

[Riot]

Equidaily.com:

KEN McPEEK (Noble’s Promise, fifth): We talked a lot about waiting with this horse and not passing horses until the eighth-pole. Willie (Martinez) said he felt he was cruising, so he let him take the lead at the quarter-pole. We passed the 10 horse (Paddy O’Prado) and then he came back and passed us, so maybe we just need to admit he’s a miler. But a darned good one.

[ibet2win]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This is crazy talk. Noble's Promise is way better than Sam P. Throwing out his faster than Sam P. figures, the fact that he's been able to do this well beyond a mile is remarkable in itself. He's a very nice horse. Dublin's also a good horse in the wrong hands.

In the wrong hands? What a ridiculous thing to say. Lukas is a hall of famer who was leading money winner for like 10 years straight.....AND who do you think trained Todd Pletcher??????