Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

A few weeks ago I turned on ATR and heard your comments concerning Looking at Lucky and the Rebel Stakes. Now, unlike Beyer, you don't stutter, and I could've sworn that I heard you almost come flat out and say that LOL got the benefit of the setup because he found trouble. In other words, you understood that by having to check while the others were in a drive, he was able to last move the field. Why is this any different than what I'm claiming for the Derby?

Comparing the supposed trouble that Lookin at Lucky had in the Rebel to the very real trouble Ice Box had in the Derby is a slippery slope. One horse steadied mildly on the backstretch while the other was stopped dead in the midst of his significant rally. Maybe Lookin at Lucky was helped because it forced his rider to make the last move, though Gomez doesn't usually have a problem with this, but I don't really see the comparison.

There is some relevence to history as well.....and a final last move in the Derby never seems to win.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Comparing the supposed trouble that Lookin at Lucky had in the Rebel to the very real trouble Ice Box had in the Derby is a slippery slope. One horse steadied mildly on the backstretch while the other was stopped dead in the midst of his significant rally. Maybe Lookin at Lucky was helped because it forced his rider to make the last move, though Gomez doesn't usually have a problem with this, but I don't really see the comparison.

There is some relevence to history as well.....and a final last move in the Derby never seems to win.

Not exactly. LaL steadied while Dublin and NP were making strong (perhaps premature) moves. This allowed him to get them late. IB checked behind horses while LaL and MMFM were in an all out drive; this allowed him to gain the last split when they fizzled out.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Because Ice Box has never demonstrated the ability to run anything remotely resembling an against the grain race.

I don't know about MMFM but LaL is certainly a horse that has demonstrated the ability to win a race where he doesn't get a perfect trip. Ice Box hasn't. Why would I assume that Ice Box is able to put in a sustained run on Saturday when LaL couldn't?

I certainly was not an Ice Box fan going into the Derby, but his trip in his allowance win on January 18 (against Pleasant Prince) was far from "perfect." Rather than sitting in behind covered up in a short field, Velazquez moved up him four-wide into the first turn and he then pressed the pace while wide and uncovered. He essentially was able to grind out a win even though Pleasant Prince had a relatively easier (and ground-saving) trip.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Listen. The jock did not ride the horse the way McPeek apparently wanted him to be ridden. Moreover, this jock has cost the connections a number of wins; PRIMARILY the BC (and at least a 2nd in the Derby). There's no way, PHIL, that you can tell me that he didn't move prematurely in the BC. How can these people be in the game and be clueless to the fact that this jock cost them the BC? It's clear to anyone with a low level tripping ability and these people don't get it? It's pitiful.

Bejarano was super-patient on him in the Cash Call Futurity. He didn't explode in the stretch. He just runs o.k. He couldn't catch LAL. You can't transfer that huge middle move NP has going 2 turns. It will only become a mediocre late move. He's a sprinter/miler. Don't care how obnoxious you write. Now matter how condescending you are to people, this horse naturally wants to move at a certain time. If you change that, he will not put in this huge stretch move (especially not going 9 or 10f.) This is a nice sprinter/miler.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Bejarano was super-patient on him in the Cash Call Futurity. He didn't explode in the stretch. He just runs o.k. He couldn't catch LAL. You can't transfer that huge middle move NP has going 2 turns. It will only become a mediocre late move. He's a sprinter/miler. Don't care how obnoxious you write. Now matter how condescending you are to people, this horse naturally wants to move at a certain time. If you change that, he will not put in this huge stretch move (especially not going 9 or 10f.) This is a nice sprinter/miler.

I'd watch the Cash Call again, Ace. Wasn't that the race where LaL was inside the entire race and NP was widest BOTH turns. If I remember correctly NP ran about 4 or 5 lengths more and lost by 3/4 of a length.

[hockey2315]

Don't feel like reading through all of this - so maybe it was already mentioned - but Noble's Promise is now likely for the Preakness. Might offer some good value. . .

[blackthroatedwind]

Noble's Promise would be a good pickup for a good rider that is open. I know the Fat Man has belabored it to death, but he's right, this horse never seems to get a good ride. Now, maybe he's tough to ride, but he could use a patient rider like Gomez.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I certainly was not an Ice Box fan going into the Derby, but his trip in his allowance win on January 18 (against Pleasant Prince) was far from "perfect." Rather than sitting in behind covered up in a short field, Velazquez moved up him four-wide into the first turn and he then pressed the pace while wide and uncovered. He essentially was able to grind out a win even though Pleasant Prince had a relatively easier (and ground-saving) trip.

No doubt he ran more in that race in terms of distance covered. When I looked at the chart for the race initially, I thought that PP ran the better race. Then I looked at the replay, which concurs with your assessment. It then became a question of which to give more weight to: the wide trip and, essentially, last move or the, relatively, sharp move by PP the 2nd to 3rd split, in what was a layered race. I deferred to the chart, knowing full well that horses that are inside tend to lose ground while behind horses. IB was wider by he also ran later. As it was, IB ran better than PP next time out in the FOY, which apparently proved me wrong. Then again, he was hard pressed to nose PP in the FD.

One constant in all these races: IB made the LAST move. Put him in a race where he has to do his own work and he's just not getting it done. He needs help. Quite a bit of help. So, I ask again: where's his GOOD race?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

One constant in all these races: IB made the LAST move. Put him in a race where he has to do his own work and he's just not getting it done. He needs help. Quite a bit of help. So, I ask again: where's his GOOD race?

I've been consistently wrong about Ice Box. Despite an allowance win that I did like, I didn't fancy his chances in the Florida Derby, and I didn't like him Saturday. That being said, he's a 3YO who Zito has going in the right direction, and he's made a career out of developing such horses.

Ice Box ran well Saturday. You may be right that he will likely need "help" to win, but most horses do. Running well and having race dynamics in a horse's favor are not mutually exclusive concepts.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'd watch the Cash Call again, Ace. Wasn't that the race where LaL was inside the entire race and NP was widest BOTH turns. If I remember correctly NP ran about 4 or 5 lengths more and lost by 3/4 of a length.

Wouldn't mind seeing Gomez ride him. Still think he'll flatten out going 9-10f in Grade 1 races. Are you saying Bejarano, Albarado, and Willie all gave this horse a bad ride? The only problem is the ride? He's had 6 two-turn races. The only one where he isn't giving up ground (late) is the race where they set a 1:13 pace. That race is thought of as one of LAL's least impressive efforts. Even when he won going two turns, he was giving up ground late in the race.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Wouldn't mind seeing Gomez ride him. Still think he'll flatten out going 9-10f in Grade 1 races. Are you saying Bejarano, Albarado, and Willie all gave this horse a bad ride? The only problem is the ride? He's had 6 two-turn races. The only one where he isn't giving up ground (late) is the race where they set a 1:13 pace. That race is thought of as one of LAL's least impressive efforts. Even when he won going two turns, he was giving up ground late in the race.

how bout ramon

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

2 years ago.

Originally Posted by philcski

... and 3 years ago, 4 years ago, 6 years ago...

Watch the replays of the years you are quoting guys... the horses who win this race take the lead at the very end of the turn or after the final turn, not early or midway through the turn.

2 years ago... Big Brown didn't take the lead until the end of the turn.

3 years ago... Street Sense didn't pass Hard Spun till mid stretch.

4 years ago... Barbaro didn't take the lead until nearing the end of the turn.

6 years ago... Smarty Jones didn't take the lead until they left the final turn.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by pba1817

Watch the replays of the years you are quoting guys... the horses who win this race take the lead at the very end of the turn or after the final turn, not on the turn.

When I have time I'll check it out. I looked back at the pps of the derby winners since '92 and only three had taken the lead coming from behind at the quarter pole. Big Brown,Barbaro and Real Quiet. Quite a few had closed ground to within less than a length during the same point in the race.

It wouldn't surprise me that NP was in front at some point in between calls or earlier than Big Brown or Barbaro. (Although my recollection of Barbaro's race was that he had the lead midway on the turn.)

In any event if you watch BB's and Barbaro's derbys I would guess that they were moving away from the others behind them when they made those moves. This was not the case with Nobles Promise. He was separated from SS by the same distance throughout the run down the backstretch and around the turn. If NP made a premature move then so did Super Saver.

What really was happening was the two leaders were backing up to the field. On the pan shot from NBC you can only see three horses when NP inherited the lead. That gave the appearance that he was moving swiftly and perhaps prematurely but only from the skycam can you see that SS was moving just as quickly as NP.

If there was any move that hurt NP's chances it was the one going into the clubhouse turn.

[pba1817]

The move that hurt Nobles Promise's best chances of a victory was the selection of which pilot to use...

[iamthelurker]

I honestly think the fact that Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were stopping so badly made it look like Willy made more of a move then he really did. His horse was simply traveling better then the two tired leaders. The only move Willy made was to move in time to split the two front runners. After he split them and hit the front he sat chilly again, it's not like he went all in at the 3/8ths pole like everyone is acting. The only possible move you can critique from his ride is the fact that he didnt shut back off the rail when he did hit the front. This is a son of Cuvee and 5th in the derby is an overachievement in many ways. I dont think he was cost a placing nor do I think he is any better then what he's shown so far. He could be a very dangerous horse at a mile maybe a little more. But that's it, Willy is getting lumped way too much blame here.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I honestly think the fact that Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were stopping so badly made it look like Willy made more of a move then he really did. His horse was simply traveling better then the two tired leaders. The only move Willy made was to move in time to split the two front runners. After he split them and hit the front he sat chilly again, it's not like he went all in at the 3/8ths pole like everyone is acting. The only possible move you can critique from his ride is the fact that he didnt shut back off the rail when he did hit the front. This is a son of Cuvee and 5th in the derby is an overachievement in many ways. I dont think he was cost a placing nor do I think he is any better then what he's shown so far. He could be a very dangerous horse at a mile maybe a little more. But that's it, Willy is getting lumped way too much blame here.

This is very well stated and I very much agree with you on him inheriting the lead rather than hitting the proverbial "all in" button. Watching the overhead really reveals this.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I honestly think the fact that Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were stopping so badly made it look like Willy made more of a move then he really did. His horse was simply traveling better then the two tired leaders. The only move Willy made was to move in time to split the two front runners. After he split them and hit the front he sat chilly again, it's not like he went all in at the 3/8ths pole like everyone is acting. The only possible move you can critique from his ride is the fact that he didnt shut back off the rail when he did hit the front. This is a son of Cuvee and 5th in the derby is an overachievement in many ways. I dont think he was cost a placing nor do I think he is any better then what he's shown so far. He could be a very dangerous horse at a mile maybe a little more. But that's it, Willy is getting lumped way too much blame here.

Deja Vu

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Don't feel like reading through all of this - so maybe it was already mentioned - but Noble's Promise is now likely for the Preakness. Might offer some good value. . .

good, tell the guy (complaining) to bet him again, lose again and start another thread about how the jockey gave a horse with no shot of making it, a bad ride........ my money says that horse will come up short again. how many times does super saver have to beat the crap out of him? whose bred to run the distance noble or the winner, regaurdless of how the trip goes?.....it sure ain't the son of cuvee!

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is very well stated and I very much agree with you on him inheriting the lead rather than hitting the proverbial "all in" button. Watching the overhead really reveals this.

Watch the replay and watch his hands. He was all in.

[iamthelurker]

I have watched the replay and the head on, Willy pushed to make the gap between two tiring horses. Its clear as day he drops his hands back down after he splits them. He saw the upcoming logjam about to happen and avoided it. All in would of been a full hand ride from the 3/8ths on which he didnt do at all. He actually didnt even hit his horse until Super Saver shouldered him. So I think its you who should go watch the replay again.