Keeneland Sale: 'Hip Watch' and running observations..

[Cannon Shell]

Dixie Union's results thus far
Hip #31 RNA (140k)
Hip #368 500k
Hip #372 300k
Hip #490 RNA (235k)
Hip #501 40k
Hip #643 205k
Hip #716 130k
Hip #843 75k
Hip #1027 125k
Hip #1059 RNA (45k)

Last year
#252 190k
#278 120k
#368 RNA 120k
#382 75k
#547 190k
#603 130k
#658 240k
#678 400k
#716 RNA 45k
#742 120k
#827 200k
#924 250k
#928 160k
#979 150k
#1035 240k
#1078 350k




Last year there were 16 DU's through the ring in the first 2 books, this year there were 10. So much for the notion that recent results had anything to do with the placement of DU's since there were 6 LESS horses in the first 2 books. Last year there was 1 horse in the 1st 2 books to sell for less than 6 figures and 2 failed to sell. This year there were 2 non six figure horses and 3 that failed to sell, out of 10. It is hard to make the assumption that Dixie Unions recent sales results has much if anything to do with the his success this year. As a matter of fact if you take out #368 (who I had graded as high as I ever have graded a yearling) you could say that he has had a less than stellar sale. But then again you can simply state your theory with no real comprehension of the numbers, the sales or people behind them and believe whatever you want. It is the internet of course. 368 was a superior horse regardless of sire. That guarantees nothing on the track but to say that she was only a high dollar horse because Gone Astray won the PA Derby has nothing to do with reality.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Dixie Union's results thus far
Hip #31 RNA (140k)
Hip #368 500k
Hip #372 300k
Hip #490 RNA (235k)
Hip #501 40k
Hip #643 205k
Hip #716 130k
Hip #843 75k
Hip #1027 125k
Hip #1059 RNA (45k)

Last year
#252 190k
#278 120k
#368 RNA 120k
#382 75k
#547 190k
#603 130k
#658 240k
#678 400k
#716 RNA 45k
#742 120k
#827 200k
#924 250k
#928 160k
#979 150k
#1035 240k
#1078 350k




Last year there were 16 DU's through the ring in the first 2 books, this year there were 10. So much for the notion that recent results had anything to do with the placement of DU's since there were 6 LESS horses in the first 2 books. Last year there was 1 horse in the 1st 2 books to sell for less than 6 figures and 2 failed to sell. This year there were 2 non six figure horses and 3 that failed to sell, out of 10. It is hard to make the assumption that Dixie Unions recent sales results has much if anything to do with the his success this year. As a matter of fact if you take out #368 (who I had graded as high as I ever have graded a yearling) you could say that he has had a less than stellar sale. But then again you can simply state your theory with no real comprehension of the numbers, the sales or people behind them and believe whatever you want. It is the internet of course. 368 was a superior horse regardless of sire. That guarantees nothing on the track but to say that she was only a high dollar horse because Gone Astray won the PA Derby has nothing to do with reality.

Let's recap, I haven't suggested anything on placement other then to state the obvious which is DU is a Lanes End Stallion and hence if Farish calls in a fav or two it will get done.
Perhaps now you can take your spin and adjust it according to the overall market instead of isolating it from reality. The Book 1 results were off 36%, are we to suggest this years DU's shouldn't have suffered an equal decline in average price?.. Since DU performance was fair from the first crops it makes sense that the quality of mares has been in decline. It makes sense that less are in this years books 1,2. More importantly your Simon"10 helmet yearling of the book" would have been just another stunning horse from a stallion that had never produced a strong GRADE 1 racehorse. So regardless of how many Stars, Helmets, or A+'s you assigned this adonis, the horse would have still had to overcome his sires lack of production. Consider that this "Super Simon" eclipsed last years top seller by 25% in a market that was in step decline suggesting that it was on looks and not the recent success of Gone Astray and Just Whistle really is suspect. You have people buying Birdstones for 400k now perhap those are gorgeous horses as well?

The best advice I ever heard about buying yearlings was from Jerry Evilsizer..Said to me " It doesn't matter what flaws they have, it only matters if the flaws they have can stop them from being great, it aint a beauty contest." Which brings me to my next point, regardless of how special she looked unless DU had produced a potentially great horse last week, your queen would have just been another smokin gal.

In all fairness, I would never doubt your abilty to spot a wonderfully made horse, nor would I ever doubt your understanding of pedigree. Moreover I respect it highly as I am sure you work your butt off as a pro to make educated decisions for you and your clients.

You have to consider human nature, they all want a M'doro because they want to own the next Rachel. It's no different with these DU's last week they came of age after 5 years and at once. The filly won on a grand stage in real serious fashion..Hence DU's became in fashion, its a market, the highs are too high and the lows are to low and none of it ever needs to make sense.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Dixie Union wasn't that much as a race horse .. and he's certainly never sired a horse nearly as good as himself.

I'll give you that much Freddy.

Hot Dixie Chick is a freak for a 2yo sprint filly ... but her dam Above Perfection was also a pure freak. Above Perfection ran Beyers of 80, 107, 101, and 112 in career starts #1, 2, 3, and 4.

Compare that to Hot Dixie Chick's 86, 100, 103, and 95 in starts 1 through 4.

Dixie Union's never had an offspring run a 108 Beyer or higher and I think his only two lifetime Grade 1 winners are Hot Dixie Chick and the immortal Dixie Chatter... who took an ugly version of the Norfolk over Salute the Sarge.

His best horse, the great Grasshopper, still has his N4X alw condition after 17 starts ... and his 3 race 2009 season consisted of embarassing defeats on all 3 different surfaces. He got beat 15 on dirt by Honest Man, 4 on turf by Gold Wonder, and 12 on synthetic by Parading.

Dave In Dixie looks promising among potential starters for the BC Juvie - do you have his auction information including how he worked in the two year old sale?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Let's recap, I haven't suggested anything on placement other then to state the obvious which is DU is a Lanes End Stallion and hence if Farish calls in a fav or two it will get done.
Perhaps now you can take your spin and adjust it according to the overall market instead of isolating it from reality. The Book 1 results were off 36%, are we to suggest this years DU's shouldn't have suffered an equal decline in average price?.. Since DU performance was fair from the first crops it makes sense that the quality of mares has been in decline. It makes sense that less are in this years books 1,2. More importantly your Simon"10 helmet yearling of the book" would have been just another stunning horse from a stallion that had never produced a strong GRADE 1 racehorse. So regardless of how many Stars, Helmets, or A+'s you assigned this adonis, the horse would have still had to overcome his sires lack of production. Consider that this "Super Simon" eclipsed last years top seller by 25% in a market that was in step decline suggesting that it was on looks and not the recent success of Gone Astray and Just Whistle really is suspect. You have people buying Birdstones for 400k now perhap those are gorgeous horses as well?

The best advice I ever heard about buying yearlings was from Jerry Evilsizer..Said to me " It doesn't matter what flaws they have, it only matters if the flaws they have can stop them from being great, it aint a beauty contest." Which brings me to my next point, regardless of how special she looked unless DU had produced a potentially great horse last week, your queen would have just been another smokin gal.

In all fairness, I would never doubt your abilty to spot a wonderfully made horse, nor would I ever doubt your understanding of pedigree. Moreover I respect it highly as I am sure you work your butt off as a pro to make educated decisions for you and your clients.

You have to consider human nature, they all want a M'doro because they want to own the next Rachel. It's no different with these DU's last week they came of age after 5 years and at once. The filly won on a grand stage in real serious fashion..Hence DU's became in fashion, its a market, the highs are too high and the lows are to low and none of it ever needs to make sense.

The filly would have brought that price or more regardless of year. Perhaps if you recognized that many consignors and sellers actually prefer to be in book 2 to book 1 you would not make such a big deal of it. The fact is that she brought the price she did based far more on her physical makeup than any sucess that DU has had recently. Otherwise she would have been a typical $150k DU yearling. I think that the results from this year show that there is no great run on DU yearlings at this year sale despite his recent success. The DU market this year isnt any better than its been with the exception of only this filly.

[freddymo]

I heard the best looking horse was 1065 some Broken Vow??? I am sure if we asked 10 well respected horseman we would get at least 7 different answers. I don't get the facination with looks or confirmation. I understand the importance and significance of physical issues. The folks who can project what they will look like in 12 months are the gifted ones. Figuring out who looks good today doesn't seem quite as impressive. Most of them come off the van two weeks later looking different nevermind in Feb.

Would you agree the single most important factor the horse market uses to value stock for racing is the prior successes and failures. DU had zero significant success. Perhaps you recall when the Smart Strike's came into the ring 6-7 years ago, standing for 25k and having marginal success, they weren't thought of as they are today. It took wonderful results to convince people his offspring were capable of limitless success. Why you don't think that Just Whistles/Gone Astray's success enlightened the audience and changed the markets tolerance for pain is puzzling. It's fairly straight forward the more fast horses they get the more they sell for.. The horse has had 500 plus foals I am sure 5 to 10 of them have been superior looking animals. You breed Scav to 500 mares and you get at least a few nice ones.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I heard the best looking horse was 1065 some Broken Vow??? I am sure if we asked 10 well respected horseman we would get at least 7 different answers. I don't get the facination with looks or confirmation. I understand the importance and significance of physical issues. The folks who can project what they will look like in 12 months are the gifted ones. Figuring out who looks good today doesn't seem quite as impressive. Most of them come off the van two weeks later looking different nevermind in Feb.

Would you agree the single most important factor the horse market uses to value stock for racing is the prior successes and failures. DU had zero significant success. Perhaps you recall when the Smart Strike's came into the ring 6-7 years ago, standing for 25k and having marginal success, they weren't thought of as they are today. It took wonderful results to convince people his offspring were capable of limitless success. Why you don't think that Just Whistles/Gone Astray's success enlightened the audience and changed the markets tolerance for pain is puzzling. It's fairly straight forward the more fast horses they get the more they sell for.. The horse has had 500 plus foals I am sure 5 to 10 of them have been superior looking animals. You breed Scav to 500 mares and you get at least a few nice ones.

Scavs is a gelding

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Scavs is a gelding

Scavs is an AP Indy type stud

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Scavs is a gelding

Scavs is Da man, king of the shed, doesn't even need a teaser.

[MaTH716]

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Dave In Dixie looks promising among potential starters for the BC Juvie - do you have his auction information including how he worked in the two year old sale?

Kee Jan 08 47k
FTK Summer yearling 08 140k
Kee April 09 2yo 310k

That first sale he was an RNA.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

where is that sexy man today??

[Scav]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Scavs is Da man, king of the shed, doesn't even need a teaser.

I don't, I walk around like this Yes Its True colt that caught a whiff of this filly at Three Chimneys.

I caught a whiff of this trainers daughter and it was all over

[Scav]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I saw this picture on I-65 while driving home from KY and I lost it. This was your best yet

[philcski]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Scavs is Da man, king of the shed, doesn't even need a teaser.

Show scavs the Biancone filly and it's all over

Originally Posted by MaTH716

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

Show scavs the Biancone filly and it's all over

Or Tom Voss's filly, she is ridiculous also

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Or Tom Voss's filly, she is ridiculous also

???

Show me next time

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Scav

We got outbid on what was considered an A++ of the sale today by the Shiek, #368, Dixie Union filly.

She was awesome looking, fast as can be.

I saw salivation from a DT member when looking at her.

She just got named within the last couple weeks since I checked, her name is Dixieland Kiss