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#1
05-29-2010, 07:10 AM
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5/29: Belmont (7th-10th); Monmouth (6th-12th); Churchill (8th-11th)
Took beat on Churchill P4 when Lukas' Hamazing Destiny wired sprint set in the feature, and found the result tough to understand considering the Salt Lake 4yo had shown no speed since last November. Romans' West Pointer Belo Sorto was a complete flop as the top tab, somehow unable to keep up with the mundane :23.2, :46.2 opening quarters set by the winner, when in his skien of 4 straight wins he's been attended sub :45 half miles. Hope you did OK. There's plenty of terrific racing the next 72 hours with stakes action everywhere you look, so despite what feels like an unending period of bad decisions and frustrating results, I'm anxious to dig in the heels and find some spots to score.
BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 7th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Guiltless Pleasure 5-1 4th Best Value: #2 Jacky Juice 6-1 5th Next Best: #1e Rice entry 3-1 2nd/6th Exotics Use: #5 Poivre's Girl 9-2 3rd 8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Annoyingly deep race with a group of state bred lawn routers that are all bunched together talent-wise. You could conceivably use all of them.. Best Value: #7 Spa City Fever 5-1 WON ($18.60) Next Best: #3 Quiet On the Tee 4-1 7th Exotics Use: #9 Lonely Whistle 10-1 9th Super Add: #8 Union Army 15-1 8th 9th: 60th Vagrancy (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD) Most Likely: #2 Hour Glass 7-2 WON ($9.30) Best Value: #7 Saarlight 9-2 4th Next Best: #3 Tar Heel Mom 5-2 3rd 10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (Super) Most Likely: #2 Solar Panel 7-2 WON ($9.90) Best Value: #6 Barrel of Love 4-1 2nd Next Best: #1a Hear the Footsteps 5-2 3rd Super Add: #4 Settop 15-1 10th $1 Pick 3 (7-2-2) Paid $135.75 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 1-2-4-5 8: 3-7-9 9: 2-7 10: 1-2-6 4x3x2x3 = $72 MONMOUTH PARK POST-SCRATCHES 6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 P5, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Zermatt 5-2 2nd Best Value: #3 Always a Party 6-1 10th Next Best: #10 A Wink and a Smile 7-2 3rd Super Add: #11 My Mancita 20-1 11th 7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 He's So Chic 3-1 WON ($5.80) Next Best: #6 Lone Cypress 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Joey Carson 4-1 5th Super Add: #8 Sabi Sabi 10-1 6th 8th: NJ-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) You can coo all you want about the large purse/large field expirement here at MTH, but giving away an $80,000 purse for this group is pretty silly. Nine of 14 entered coming in off layoffs of 120 or more.. Best Value: #5 Charmingmegan 6-1 WON ($11.60) Next Best: #12 Jazzy Jenna 3-1 9th Exotics Use: #4 Iron Countess 5-1 2nd Super Add: #1 Roll Me Over 4-1 7th 9th: Lamplighter, 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, DD, Super) Super tricky group here with 3 first time turfers in the 1, 5 and 6 that could all be quite OK on lawn; Burning question is why is Gomez, 2nd on the 4 at KEE last time, on Larry Murray's MD invader here? Or is Pletcher simply returning DeCarlo for a stakes shot?. Most Likely: #2 Lethal Combination 3-1 4th Next Best: #7 Thunder Brew 5-2 WON ($9.20) Exotics Use: #1 Bank the Eight 4-1 6th Super Add: #3 Lighthouse Sound 6-1 5th 10th: J.J. Reilly H., 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #6 Unwritten 6-1 WON ($9.20) Next Best: #3 Together Indy 9-2 8th Exotics Use: #10 Joey P. 7-2 2nd Super Add: #1e Sleeter entry 6-1 7th/10th <$75 P5 Play: 6: 8 7: 4-6 8: 1-4-5-7-12 9: 1-2-7 10: 1-3-6-8-10 1x2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75 11th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (DD, Super) Best Value: #9 Banker's Buy 6-1 2nd Next Best: #10 Very Sweet 7-2 WON ($6.60) Exotics Use: #2 Joyce's Angel 4-1 3rd Super Add: #8 American Romance 15-1 6th 12th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (Super) Most Likely: #2 Adagio 5-2 WON ($4.60) Best Value: #1 Tactical Weapon 8-1 2nd Next Best: #4 Art Currency 3-1 3rd Super Add: #6 Danak 10-1 4th <$75 P4 Play: 9: 1-2-7 10: 3-6 11: 2-8-9-10 12: 1-2-4 3x2x4x3 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (7-6-10-2/3/7) Paid $306.70 CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 8th: 22nd Aristides (G3), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Cash Refund 2-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Chief of Affairs 5-2 4th Exotics Use: #1 Atta Boy Roy 5-2 2nd Super Add: #4 Riley Tucker 7-2 WON ($11.80) 9th: ALW/N2X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Jungle Tale 2-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Sheryl's Melody 7-2 7th Best Value: #5 Ms. Thanksgiving 5-1 5th Super Add: #6 Sparky's Dream 5-2 4th 10th: 36th Dogwood (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (DD, Super) Has gone unnoticed with the glut of stakes action this weekend, but this came up as a well-matched bunch and a fun betting affair. The Starlight-Pletcher fave is OK, but 8-5 is a little tough to swallow.. Most Likely: #4 Ailalea 8-5 WON ($4.00) Best Value: #5 Helen Belen 15-1 6th Next Best: #7 Vis a Vis 3-1 5th Super Add: #3 Fuzzy Britches 8-1 3rd 11th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 1m (Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #5 Our Dancer 3-1 3rd Best Value: #1 Bred to Win 15-1 10th Next Best: #6 Silver Bayer 8-1 5th Exotics Use: #7 Saviano 8-1 WON ($11.20) High 5 Play: #9 Won Happy Bachelor 12-1 2nd <$75 P4 Play: 8: 5 9: 2-5-8 10: 2-3-4-5-7 11: 1-5-6-7-9 1x3x5x5 = $75 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-30-2010 at 07:42 AM. 
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#2
05-29-2010, 02:06 PM
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BEL SCR/CHG'S
7TH 6 Moshe Diane Early 7 Holdme Kaz Early 9TH 6 Lady Alexander Early NO SUPERFECTA 10TH 1 (poe) City Whisper Early 11 Jello Shot Early
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
05-29-2010, 02:13 PM
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MTH SCR/CHG'S
6 Sixth Race Scratches #13 Silk Montbrook Changes #12 Justkeepitsimple, Pablo Fragoso - Jockey Change 8 Eighth Race Scratches #13 False Idol #14 N J Esq 10 Tenth Race Scratches #4 A Dynamite Time #7 Rough Road Ahead #12 Evenings End 11 Eleventh Race Scratches #1 Never Quicker 12 Twelveth Race Scratches #7 Mission Approved #3 Rikman
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
05-29-2010, 02:20 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
05-29-2010, 05:10 PM
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Damn Bill Cesare. $70 winner. He is a f'n rainmaker... And this wasn't even a 2yo. Wait till he springs a couple of those later in the summer...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
05-29-2010, 05:58 PM
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BELMONT C/O: $45,506
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#8
05-29-2010, 06:44 PM
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Nice job today Steve, could have been a huge one. All over everything, unfortunately ended up Lots of 3/4's and 4/5 in the MTH pick 5. Finally conected with the late 4 at Monmouth. Congrats on another nice day.
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Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#9
05-29-2010, 09:21 PM
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Quote:
Hope everybody did well and are ready for more action Sunday... Can confirm too that I'll broadcast live from Belmont Monday for the Met.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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