7/21: Del Mar (5th-10th)

[Kasept]

Though just three Del Mar and one Saratoga card are available for perusal, the slates at the two mid-summer resort favorites should be heartening and exciting to horseplayers and race fans. Adding in the remaining 21 cards of the Monmouth uber-meet, the next 7 weeks should be the kind of intense period of quality on track and wagering performance for which we all hope. The .50 P4 makes its' debut at Del Mar today, and with the sequence featuring 11, 10, 9 and 10 wagering interests (9,900 combinations), it will be a welcome and popular addition to the wagering menu. Brad Free, Rick Hammerle and Steve Davidowitz all join me on ATR this morningf to preview the Del Mar action, and the last 6 races on today's opening card were my focus.


DEL MAR


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Lions Story 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #6 Premier Cru 7-2 4th


6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult and well-matched set with what looks like an honest enough pace scenario..

Best Value: #6 Catsalot 6-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Ruffled Feathers 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Bran Jammas 5-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Enumclaw Girl 6-1 3rd


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Mama Bouche 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Roman Chic 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Go On Babe 4-1 WON-DH ($6.00)
Super Add: #1a (POE) Rote 6-1 5th


8th: 64th Oceanside, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Traditional DMR opener runs as a single heat again this year, and nicely balanced bunch make it a good betting affair. Twirling Candy, who bypassed Saturday's Swaps at HOL for this, could be the proverbial 'any kind' sporting two disparate sprint wins in November '09 and May. Turf shouldn't be an issue for the Craig homebred, who is by versatile Candy Ride out of a Chester House mare. Those seeking a price alternative may want to dabble with intriguing Killer Bear. Though his best work has come versus Cal-breds, he's 20-1 and possible to float higher, and seems to have exactly what's needed in a field well stocked with pace setters and pressers. Knapp trainee's two recent efforts at 7 and 7.5f tip him as dangerous, given that horses effective at seven-eighths are generally tactical and able to adjust to race dynanmics. Topped state-bred elders, and is worth at least a flyer at anticipated jumbo tote..

Most Likely: #3 Twirling Candy 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #10 Killer Bear 20-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Macias 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Domonation 5-1 7th


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Good spot to take advantage of .50 P4 denomination and spread..

Best Value: #6 Brendasgoldennuget 20-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Total Sum 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 The Whammer 9-2 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #2 Warring Heart 5-1 3rd


10th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #10 Jakesam 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 (POE) Grand Maneuver 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Bigmikeistheman 2-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Certainly Certain 6-1 2nd
High 5 Play: #4 SCR


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-5-8
8: 3-10
9: 2-3-6-9-10
10: 1-8

5x2x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50


Good luck!
Steve

[herkhorse]

do they have a .50 pick 4? (I know it's listed as .50 , but twinspires does not allow it)

[pucknut]

steve
no love for gallant gent
doesnt he own class edge over this crew?
espinoza aint bad either

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

do they have a .50 pick 4? (I know it's listed as .50 , but twinspires does not allow it)

I think the individual betting platform has the final say as far if they will accept the bet. I know when I went to Belmont on Oaks day, they didn't accept .50 cent pick fours from Churchill.

I can't believe that Del Mar isn't offering an early pick 4.

late pick 4 is just turrible for opening day.

[the_fat_man]

Back in the '70's, when I worked on the backstretch, all competent trainers were in agreement that: the idea was to find the ideal distance and surface for a horse and then to keep running it, as often as possible, over that distance and surface (with the exception of early season races intended as tighteners).

Now, I play a lot of tracks and while this is not followed as religiously as it once was, it can be argued that it still pretty much generally is. The lone exception is Southern California where there's no distinction in the minds of the trainers there between sprinters and routers and poly and turf horses. Thus, trying to handicap most of the races out there means 'different' methods need to be applied. I don't know about anyone else, but if the trainer can't figure out what a horse 'is', then maybe I should be handicapping elsewhere -- even if, maybe, I can properly categorize the horse. If you ask me, this points to LAZY training and over reliance on MEDICATION. Let's face it, sprinters stretching out and coming from OFF the pace to beat closing routers doesn't happen anywhere else. It happens in Southern CAL on a regular basis.

In other words, today's card at DMR is (for the most part) UNBETTABLE. Why would anyone bother when DEL and WO and even CNL and PID offer better options?

[MaTH716]

#1 Spectacular Slew 5-1 has scratched out of the 9th.

[Kasept]

DMR SCR/CHG'S

[pucknut]

In other words, today's card at DMR is (for the most part) UNBETTABLE. Why would anyone bother when DEL and WO and even CNL and PID offer better options?[/quote]

speaking of CNL any thoughts on the 8th asmussen has an entrant and pleatcher is sending out a maiden for some blacktype

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by pucknut

In other words, today's card at DMR is (for the most part) UNBETTABLE. Why would anyone bother when DEL and WO and even CNL and PID offer better options?

speaking of CNL any thoughts on the 8th asmussen has an entrant and pleatcher is sending out a maiden for some blacktype

The Salzman horse on the rail looks tough.

[MaTH716]

Going to dinner near Freehold tonight. I'm going to try to swing by and put this in.

.50 late pick 4
2,3,5,9
3,6,9
2,5,10
1,8
$36