What Is The Fairest Turf Course?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

AP Current Meet

Thank you

I can't find the information I found, I deleted the sent mail, but it indicated a major front end bias in 5 furlong turf races. I'll be able to get it again next week when they run a straight 5 furlong race again. Next two days there is no straight 5 furlong races.

[tiggerv]

FG 365 Day Stats

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Thank you

I can't find the information I found, I deleted the sent mail, but it indicated a major front end bias in 5 furlong turf races. I'll be able to get it again next week when they run a straight 5 furlong race again. Next two days there is no straight 5 furlong races.

Please don't take this the wrong way -- but I'm wondering if you're confusing a sort of turf "bias" with the nature of 5f and 5.5f sprints as a whole; speed is a huge advantage.

Take the Arlington Polytrack course -- speed horses are winning 28.7% of all races run on the Arlington main course, but they're winning an astounding 40% of 5f & 5.5f sprints. Speed is a threat at shorter distances, but it's not always because a course isn't fair, there are huge race dynamics involved.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Please don't take this the wrong way -- but I'm wondering if you're confusing a sort of turf "bias" with the nature of 5f and 5.5f sprints as a whole; speed is a huge advantage.

Take the Arlington Polytrack course -- speed horses are winning 28.7% of all races run on the Arlington main course, but they're winning an astounding 40% of 5f & 5.5f sprints. Speed is a threat at shorter distances, but it's not always because a course isn't fair, there are huge race dynamics involved.

I get it.

I got the stats from here (See Delaware Track Bias as example). Probably hard to see but when Arlington runs another 5f at her specific conditions I will get them again



Also, let me say that I am not trying to make it about Surfer, she is what she is, I never look at these stats but I happened to look when I was rewatching her race and I noticed the stats and thought it was odd

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Also, let me say that I am not trying to make it about Surfer, she is what she is, I never look at these stats but I happened to look when I was rewatching her race and I noticed the stats and thought it was odd

Nah, I know that -- I'm the one who brought her up, because in the course of researching this for this thread, I found out that she was the deepest closing turf sprint winner of the meet.

That's not on you for me bringing it up, we just disagree about the nature of the Arlington turf course, especially in sprints, because compared to main track races at similar distances, it's remarkably fair, heck, even kind to closers compared to the main track.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

i have expired

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Actually, I meant that it should not be on a list of the fairest turf courses.

I don't know what the numbers say -- either historically or recently -- but by memory I believe that the course in New Orleans has always favored closers, particularly in route races.

Gotcha. I really started the thread for input since I don't follow tracks outside of the Northeast close enough on a daily basis to really know.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Actually, I meant that it should not be on a list of the fairest turf courses.

I don't know what the numbers say -- either historically or recently -- but by memory I believe that the course in New Orleans has always favored closers, particularly in route races.

As the course becomes ragged over the meet, it doesn't favor closers quite as much as it does when the grass is higher. The movement of the rail also has an effect.

The FG turf takes quite a beating from the Jazz Fest patrons. The new irrigation system will keep the turf in better shape than it has been in the last few meets.