10/14: Belmont ($128k C/O)

[Kasept]

We're a week into the Keeneland meet and unlike the previous fall and last spring, I'm having terrible trouble finding the range. I wouldn't be flustered if I was missing winners on the Polytrack, which can frequently be chalked up to vagaries of sun and temperature effects on how the surface is playing... I'm missing horses on the Lexington lawn as well. Unbridled Humor, Mrs. Weber's first out success closing weekend at the Spa, made a second positive impression in Wednesday's N1X feature 8th, staying on and drawing off from a more experienced group. At 7-2, the Distorted Humor homebred was in my initial look, but I dropped the Live Oak 3yo in favor of the live looking Also-Eligibles that drew into the heat.

It could be that the mindset for surface move-ups and playing against short prices on the synthetic main is skewing decision making for all races. Being overly eager to ignore the ML and use horses no matter how they look to be priced has been a mistake so far at the stand. I'm only looking at the good 2yo filly stake at KEE today, as Belmont's $128k carryover takes precedent today... Hope you did OK Wednesday despite my stumbling around blind without a cane.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


IMPORTANT NOTE: Weather has potential to be an issue as rain is forecast for Elmont by 2pm with the P6 sequence opening in the 4th at 2:35pm..


4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Hard to not approach P6 starter thinking of DQ'd-from-debut-win#6 Palooza as a single. #7 Julene, half to MSW Juliet's Spirit, may get extra consideration off her 'tangled break, lost iron' comment, but truth is that she caused her own trouble by throwing her head around in the opening jumps. #3 Cash for Clunkers (SCR'D) and #4 Show Penny seem viable among the firsters as considers given debut abilities of Violette and KMc..

Most Likely: #6 Palooza 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #4 Shoe Penny 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Julene 4-1 4th


5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Addition of blinkers makes #10 Z Cats Meow (10-1) intriguing given moderate pace scenario, and #12 (AE) Song for Pupcake (5-2) is an obvious inclusion should she draw in..

Best Value: #10 Z Cats Meow 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Jazzy Moves 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Moonwalk Beauty 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Cougar Cruise 5-1 5th

OFF THE TURF: 15-3-14


6th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Note that Romans' #4 Southern Danger (12-1) freaked in the Churchill slop 6/19/10 (88 Beyer). If not on your P6 back-ups and the rain has arrived by this race, include on P4 plays..

Most Likely: #2 Calibrachoa 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Sun Dance Moon 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 D'bigcat 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Not Macho Any More 4-1 7th


7th: CLM/N3L, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 High Cry 2-1 WON ($6.50)
Best Value: #9 E Z Passer 8-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Wild Awake 5-1 3rd
SUPER ADD: #3 Blazing Honor 10-1 4th

OFF THE TURF: 13-9-16-15


8th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Cinco de Mayo Mio 1-1 WON ($2.50)
Best Value: #3 Verse Choir 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Electric Gold 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Spina 10-1 4th


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

#2 Miss Hanky Panky just ran on Sunday, and doubt Linda Rice running back on this kind of timing. Dutrow and Martin training families do it regularly, but can't recall Rice being aggressive to this extent..

Most Likely: #11 Mr. Hadif 5-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Anwar Sadat 7-2 9th
Best Value: #4 Aidan's Slew 10-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Peyton's Heart 10-1 10th

OFF THE TURF: 16-11-2


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 6
5: 3-10
6: 2-5
7: 3-5-8-9
8: 3-6
9: 4-7-11

1x2x2x4x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6
7: 3-5-8-9
8: 3-6
9: 4-7-11

3x4x2x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[randallscott35]

The bad stuff coming later than the Pick 6 at this point so everything should get by alright for today's card.

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

The bad stuff coming later than the Pick 6 at this point so everything should get by alright for today's card.

Excellent.. Thx Rand. Hadn't checked back on weather but it seemed like they didn't expect 'real' rain until early evening...

[Kasept]

They can't make a fave. 3 horses at 5-2 in the 6th.. often a sign something odd is on the way.

[SuffolkGirl]

Cannot believe that the 3o:1 shot beats the 8:5 favorite in the 6th. Maybe another carryover?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by SuffolkGirl

Cannot believe that the 30:1 shot beats the 8:5 favorite in the 6th. Maybe another carryover?

Qualified as odd, as anticipated above..

Doubt we get it to carry again without at least one other complete no-hoper.. and possibly 2.

[Kasept]

No carryover possibilities. The 5 takes the whole pool though.. $400k+...