Privman: Let the Horse of the Year Debate Begin

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let's look at what Blame accomplished this year ... in his punishing five race season ...

* After a lengthy freshening - Blame makes his 2010 debut in the Grade 3Schaffer at Pimlico. Talk about a SOFT win and stressless comeback ... No Advantage was 2nd .. the late Timber Reserve was 3rd.



This race was a glorified public workout for Blame.

* Blame makes 2010 start #2 in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster.

Battle Plan appears home free as the favorite - but suddenly starts struggling with his action inside the 1/16th pole and is caught by Blame. General Quarters and Giant Oak 3rd and 4th. The final time is slower than Rachel Alexandra's super impressive 9f win by a double digit length margin on the undercard that day.

Battle Plan is retired with an injury the very next day.



* Blame makes 2010 start #3 in the Whitney. This was the toughest field assembled all year for a horse race in America leading into the Breeders Cup Classic.

Blame beats Quality Road, Musket Man, and Haynesfield - and does it without any pace help at all.

However, Quality Road's performance wasn't up to par for him - and it was the start of a sharp downward spiral.

Musket Man was a troubled 3rd - the race obviously took a lot out of him. He missed his return engagement - and was desperately rushed into a start in the Monmouth Stakes off of just a single workout - a race in which he lost to Etched and fitness clearly his undoing as he appeared to have Etched clearly beaten on the turn.

Haynesfield broke through the starting gate that day - and was not himself.


* Blame makes start #4 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup - no serious pace pressure for Haynesfield - and Haynesfield sets a very legit but unpressured pace and absolutely toys with Blame and Fly Down. Blame's lack of tactical speed is finally exposed.


* Blame beats Zenyatta by a slim margin in the Breeders Cup Classic. It was one of the all-time lowest rated BC Classic's in terms of figures. In victory, I believe Blame even failed to demenstate that he is a better dirt horse than Zenyatta.

I realize Blame was closer to a faster and collapsing pace - but Zenyatta was being ridden harder early. I think it's wrong to assume the fast pace benefitted her more than Blame.


I admire the campaign of Blind Luck - I understand the campaign of Zenyatta (trying to nurse a perfect record) - I HATE the campaign of Blame. Pure chicken sh!t.

I'd have less problem with Blame's campaign if he was a brilliant speed horse like a Ghostzapper - who goes out and runs extremely hard the whole way. He isn't that kind of horse though.

When you hate Blame's 2010 campaign as much as I do - if I'm going to award him Horse of the Year - the silver lining should come in his performances on the race track ... and those five performances were simply not good enough for me... and there was nothing special about a single one of them.

I have no problem with Blame winning, but personally - I wouldn't vote for him.

This is well thought out and argued, originally I was leaning towards Blame, but now I am not so sure.

Edit - On second thought I think Blame should get it, but it's close.

[Thunder Gulch]

I honestly can't believe the HOY debate is beginning, I thought it ended Saturday.

Best race by each was the classic and Blame beats Zenyatta. No matter the margin, the photo says he hit the wire first. ADVANTAGE BLAME

Race #2. Blame's Whitney win over QR, Musket, et al or Zenyatta's Vanity win over St. Trinians (who was hurt if you want to use the Battle Plan argument later). The Whitney was the best field of the year before the classic. ADVANTAGE BLAME

Race #3 Blame's Foster win over Battle Plan or Zenyatta's -what? Apple Blossom? The Foster wasn't a deep field, but Zenyatta's races after the aforementioned were so poor in quality it's hard to determine which field of allowance horses was better. The Foster is one of the most prestigious G1 races for older horses in America. ADVANTAGE BLAME

Races #4,5 Who knows at this point? Neither beat much or you could say Blame's JC Gold Cup loss gives the edge to Zenyatta. ADVANTAGE ZENYATTA for not losing.

In a nutshell, Blame won the two best races of the year and his only loss was in an open G1. Zenyatta's lone loss is better than Blame's, but his two great wins make it easy to see who deserves recognition.

[slotdirt]

DrugS and CSC in perfect agreement on the HOTY discussion. That should tell someone something.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

DrugS and CSC in perfect agreement on the HOTY discussion. That should tell someone something.

I don't think we're in that much agreement. If I had a vote - which I don't - I would piss it away on Uncle Mo as a form of protest.

I put the over/under on total number of votes Uncle Mo gets for Horse of the Year at 1.5

[CSC]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

DrugS and CSC in perfect agreement on the HOTY discussion. That should tell someone something.

I edited, Blame should get it, but it's a nose difference. Hey I can give credit when I see a well argued point.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't think we're in that much agreement. If I had a vote - which I don't - I would piss it away on Uncle Mo as a form of protest.

I put the over/under on total number of votes Uncle Mo gets for Horse of the Year at 1.5

I pegged you for a Presque Isle vote myself.

[CSC]

One thing I will add, Goldikova should not be HOY if anyone has any ideas.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I pegged you for a Presque Isle vote myself.

Chamberlin Bridge broke his maiden at Presque Isle for a maiden 25k claiming tag.

My haterd for turf sprint races knows no bounds. If they ever give an eclipse for Champion Turf Sprinter - I would abstain from using my non-existant vote every year.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Chamberlin Bridge broke his maiden at Presque Isle for a maiden 25k claiming tag.

My haterd for turf sprint races knows no bounds. If they ever give an eclipse for Champion Turf Sprinter - I would abstain from using my non-existant vote every year.

Used Unzip me in that race. Don't know why really.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

DrugS and CSC in perfect agreement on the HOTY discussion. That should tell someone something.

[classhandicapper]

I hate the idea of these soft, selective, extra well spaced campaigns as much as the next guy, but I think we are going to have to get used to it.

Many trainers believe that spacing maximizes the chances of keeping a horse fresh for a full year and that really fast and tough races wear a horse down. Since the BC is now such a huge target, that gives them ample motivation to look for easy spots, to skip races, and to avoid tough ones. They also have opportunity to do so because there are many stakes around the country to look for those easier spots.

I'm not sure which of the two is the better horse based on the Classic. I'm still looking at the replay of the start of the race and other things. But I'm a huge Zenyatta fan and think being this good on two surfaces is rather mind boggling, but I'd still vote for Blame. The precedent is to vote the best older male unless the division wasn't sorted out or was very weak and someone else was a monster. It's also not typical to make a lot of subjective judgments about pace, trip, bias etc... and evaluate horses that way. Usually whoever wins on the track gets the edge.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'd have less problem with Blame's campaign if he was a brilliant speed horse like a Ghostzapper - who goes out and runs extremely hard the whole way. He isn't that kind of horse though.

Yeah. You know, I'd have less problem with pre-steriod Barry Bonds if he'd just have hit as many home runs as post-steriod BB did. But he wasn't that kind of slugger though.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Yeah. You know, I'd have less problem with people if I wasn't such a cantankerous whiny bitch of a complainer. But I'm just that kind of person though.

Fixed that up for you.

[Clip-Clop]

Blind Luck. Even in defeat.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'd have less problem with Blame's campaign if he was a brilliant speed horse like a Ghostzapper - who goes out and runs extremely hard the whole way. He isn't that kind of horse though.

I'm not sure if this will change your mind at all but someone down there this week called me and told me that Blame had some serious quarter cracks, after further investigation, he had them for a while and while it wasn't bothersome, one has to think if they ran him more, those could have become more of an issue.

[slotdirt]

Now I'm seeing the "Zenyatta's going to the Hall of Fame, but Blame isn't, so Zenyatta is obviously HOTY" arguments coming along. That's a juicy one. I bet we could easily find a dozen examples of horses losing HOTY to non-HOF horses and still going to the HOF.

[Indian Charlie]

I think Boys at Tosconova should win the Eclipse for best 2yo, since he ran second in the BC race.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Who cares?

....who cares with any of it....

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I think Boys at Tosconova should win the Eclipse for best 2yo, since he ran second in the BC race.

....yeah, there you go.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I hate the idea of these soft, selective, extra well spaced campaigns as much as the next guy, but I think we are going to have to get used to it.

Many trainers believe that spacing maximizes the chances of keeping a horse fresh for a full year and that really fast and tough races wear a horse down. Since the BC is now such a huge target, that gives them ample motivation to look for easy spots, to skip races, and to avoid tough ones. They also have opportunity to do so because there are many stakes around the country to look for those easier spots.

Obviously - you're 100% right.

However, that doesn't mean the voters for the year end awards need to reward horses who are campaigned in this fashion solely because of how they performed in the Classic.

Go back to Awesome Again's perfect season in 1998 where he beat the toughest field ever assembled in BC Classic history and failed to win Horse of the Year - he was campaigned similarly to Blame.



He had the entrie winter off - came back against complete dogs in an easy race - stepped it up in solid editions of the Foster and Whitney for his next two. He won with the comment "hand ride" in every race that year but the Foster and BC Classic.

Even though it was the best field of horses ever assembled for a BC Classic - a lot of those big horses had very tough seasons and ran like they were over-the-top in that race.

Gentlemen put in a race similar to Life At Ten's performance Saturday. Skip Away struggled mightily. Silver Charm ran three times in the Strub Series, shipped to Dubai and won the World Cup - and made something like 3 or 4 different cross-country ships for races that year after he came back from Dubai. You don't see many horses do what Victory Gallop did anymore as far as running in all three triple crown races, the Haskell, the Travers, and BC Classic as a 3yo. Coronado's Quest made his 10th of 11 starts that season in the BC Classic. Running Stag was a machine, he ran in France, Germany, England, Dubai, Hong Kong, and America.

Blame's own sire Arch was in that race - he only managed to beat a single horse... the DNF Gentlemen.

I realize that HOY voters don't have other optins like they had in 1998 - but Blame is no Awesome Again either. Awesome Again was an extremely handy and tactical horse. When Tale of the Cat stole a 25 flat first quarter on the lead in the Whitney - Day just let him out a little and he shot right past ToftheC like nothing and outsprinted him down the backstretch. When the pace was strong in the Classic - he could take back and finsh strong.