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#1
11-14-2010, 07:54 AM
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11/14: Aqueduct (1st; 6th-9th); Churchill (P4)
Three swings at quads Saturday brought back scores at Aqueduct and Calder for almost $2,000 exactly. As usual in P4 scenarios, the margin between lucrative payoffs and marginal returns can be one horse. At Calder, getting Joannie's Catch into the skien at 12-1 was the key to the $1,685 bingo as the other three winners were 3-2, 9-2, and 2-1. (As well as the $675 8th-10th P3.) In NY, no winner even reached 4-1 in the P4, and my live ticket to 6 horses included prices of $1,075, $2,130 and $3,710. Even though I got beat at Churchill, the example of one horse making the difference was evident as the 7th race Pitts winner at 26-1 tripped a $2,400 (.50) return with winners of the other three legs paying $4.20, $7.60 and $5.40.
The point is that you have to put yourself in position to catch a nice ticket when playing P3's and P4's, and failure to build ducats that include 10-1, 15-1 and 20-1 horses won't ever snare one. You still frequently need to include vulnerable favorites in your plays, but don't be shy about envisioning race scenarios that will produce horses you believe have a shot at big numbers. And with .50 P4's available more and more widely, there is really no excuse for daring inclusions... Hope you did great Saturday and thanks to the kind Emailers who rode along with yesterday's successes. In handicapping Sunday's cards, I found the races much tougher to read than I did Saturday, and I'll be treading lightly in the Big A and Downs sequences. AQUEDUCT POST-SCRATCHES 1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Benzel-Live Oak ML favorite (and Zenyatta half) Souper Spectacular needs to improve further to best this group of hard-knocking elders. Has certainly found home on turf, but 5-2 number, and possibly less, invites play-against.. Most Likely: #4 Center Divider 7-2 3rd Best Value: #6 Carson Hall 4-1 2nd Next Best: #3 Souper Spectacular 5-2 WON ($5.70) Super Add: #1 Piazza Di Spagna 20-1 7th .10 SUPER PLAY: 4-6 with 1-3-4-6 with 1-3-4-5-6 with ALL (2x3x3x6 = 108 x .10 = $10.80) 6th: Memories of Silver, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Very difficult group to seperate. The one thing that appears certain, is that should #11 Unbridled Humor draw in, she is very much the horse to beat.. Most Likely: #11 Unbridled Humor 2-1 WON ($3.50) Best Value: #5 Hatheer 20-1 6th Next Best: #4 Sea Road 6-1 4th Super Add: #6 Ultimate Class 12-1 2nd 7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Catreign 2-1 3rd Best Value: #4 Spell Check 5-1 WON ($12.00) Next Best: #8 Over Served 3-1 2nd Super Add: #7 Buddy's Dream 10-1 5th $1 Exacta (4-8) Paid $21.90 $1 Trifecta (4-8-1) Paid $43.00 8th: Thunder Rumble-NY, 3+, 7f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 General Maximus 7-2 2nd Next Best: #4 Driven By Success 6-5 WON ($4.50) Exotics Use: #1 Uncle T Seven 4-1 4th 9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super) Most Likely: #7 Deanallen'skitten 3-1 2nd Best Value: #1 Suroof 12-1 WON ($10.00) Next Best: #4 Smart Farming 8-1 3rd Super Add: #5 Trail Magic 5-1 $1 Exacta (1-7) Paid $17.80 $1 Trifecta (1-7-4) Paid $97.25 <$50 P4 Play: 6: 11 7: 1-4-8 8: 1-2-3-4 9: 1-4-5-7 1x3x4x4 = $48 $1 Pick 4 (3,11,12,13/4/4/1) Paid $172.25 CHURCHILL DOWNS PRE-SCRATCHES 7th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #7 Moe Man 8-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Monsignor 2-1 WON ($3.20) Exotics Use: #3 Medal Round 3-1 3rd Super Add: #4 Max Silverhammer 5-1 6th 8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5f OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #7 Elusive Joli 3-1 WON ($4.80) Best Value: #3 Spanish Comedy 30-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Atrea 7-2 3rd Super Add: #11 Bayou Miss 10-1 4th $1 Exacta (7-3) Paid $23.70 $1 Trifecta (7-3-6) Paid $87.10 $1 Superfecta (7-3-6-11) Paid $759.10 9th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Kensei 8-5 7th Best Value: #6 River Bear 8-1 3rd Next Best: #3 Agastache 6-1 5th Super Add: #8 Early Return 6-1 WON-DQ ($9.40) 10th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5) Best Value: #1 She Has a Heart 12-1 5th Next Best: #7 Decantering 4-1 4th Exotics Use: #10 Implicate 6-1 2nd Super Add: #4 Devilish Silver 5-2 8th Hi-5 Play: #9 Tapitforpar 12-1 7th <$75 P4 Play: 7: 3-6-7 8: 3-6-7-11 9: 1-3-6 10: 1-4-7-10 3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-15-2010 at 05:29 AM. 
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#3
11-14-2010, 10:35 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
11-14-2010, 10:48 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
11-14-2010, 12:46 PM
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#7
11-14-2010, 03:46 PM
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Uggh. Just got derailed at Churchill though with Albarado and Sukie bottling themselves up... DQ! Margolis gets put up!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#9
11-14-2010, 03:50 PM
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Nice Steve. Three days in a row...well done Keep it up
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#10
11-14-2010, 04:27 PM
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Good Job Steve, keep it up.
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#11
11-14-2010, 05:26 PM
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Steve,
I decided to tag along today and play your Big A pick 4. Thanks for the picks and as always great job. PS: I'm enjoying ATR in the AM, although work prevents me from listening to entire show. Can you confirm the air time of the show?
__________________
It ain't the way I wanted it! I can handle things! I'm smart! Not like everybody says..... Like dumb..... I'm smart and I want respect!
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#12
11-15-2010, 05:32 AM
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Thx and it's my pleasure! Show runs live 9a-12p Mon-Fri with replays airing the next morning 6a-9a (Tues-Sat). Appreciate you following ATR to the a.m. Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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