Who was closer to the Triple Crown...Smarty or Alex?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Settle down, I was joking...I don't hate the horse, just the rediculous praise he's received...Repent would have these people crying....

I can see where your coming from though...one of the dangers of reading internet boards is hearing about the same horses over and over and over again. (If I had to hear about AA's Immaculate Recovery one more time I was going to scream)

That said, I think there are two different sort of fans; those who read about all the greats and want to believe what they are seeing is it and those who question to the very end.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Noone hates this horse. I think that the superlatives being thrown around without beating a good or large field or setting any track records has caused the polarity between the worshippers and those who dont worship him.

Those who worship the horse think those who don't are irrational, and vice versa.

I can't wait for the BC to be run and hope he stamps himself one way of the other.
A narrow loss with a troubled trip is my worst nightmare as we will have to listen to the debate over how good he was for decades.
Lets let him get it on, and have the final judgement come after the last chapter in the book is written.

It really isnt his fault that he hasnt beaten a large field or a good field. He has run in the biggest races for three year olds except for the Derby and Belmont. He also ran in one of the biggest races for older horses as well. So you cant fault the horse for his competition. You can only judge by what the horses does in the races he competes in.

Also, he really hasnt been asked in any of his races to set a track record. The Travers and JCGC he was freaking jogging the entire time. I judge a horse based on what he does in big races regardless of his competition. Also, the fact that so many trainers dont want to face tells me they also think he is the best horse out there. That speaks volumes to me.

Dini should be regarded as the best race horse in training today based on fact, not what if or what should be scenarios.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I can see where your coming from though...one of the dangers of reading internet boards is hearing about the same horses over and over and over again. (If I had to hear about AA's Immaculate Recovery one more time I was going to scream)

That said, I think there are two different sort of fans; those who read about all the greats and want to believe what they are seeing is it and those who question to the very end.

I hear you on the AA recovery.
I mean it was an amazing thing to see, but only real dimwits who don't understand racing think it cost him more than a length, if that.
The amazing thing about that was that he recovered so quickly!! But he never really lost his momentum and its not like he got stopped and lost all his momentum and had to start over again. Victory length may have been one more length, but thats about it.
Folks were talking like he would have won by 20 lengths, and its just not so.

[Kasept]

Hadn't had the opp to chime in here and haven't read the whole thread, but it would seem pretty clear that Smarty Jones was by far closer to winning a crown than Afleet Alex.

While I consider any dual Classic winner who didn't win the third a "near miss", it's harder to make cases for those that don't win the Derby or Preakness than those that win the first two legs. Without the pressure of the three week lead-up to the Belmont, or even the pressure of going into the Preakness as the Derby winner, it's difficult to know how trainer and jock react. You also don't know who might have lined up in the races with different outcomes, etc.. The scenario of going into the Preakness with a Derby-winning Alex is totally different than that of them going in off the near miss at Louisville, etc..

Smarty Jones was yards away from a crown and would certainly have been a winner under a slightly revised race script that gets Elliott to avoid the harassment of Solis and Bailey so early and so long.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

It really isnt his fault that he hasnt beaten a large field or a good field. He has run in the biggest races for three year olds except for the Derby and Belmont. He also ran in one of the biggest races for older horses as well. So you cant fault the horse for his competition. You can only judge by what the horses does in the races he competes in.

Also, he really hasnt been asked in any of his races to set a track record. The Travers and JCGC he was freaking jogging the entire time. I judge a horse based on what he does in big races regardless of his competition. Also, the fact that so many trainers dont want to face tells me they also think he is the best horse out there. That speaks volumes to me.

Dini should be regarded as the best race horse in training today based on fact, not what if or what should be scenarios.

The notion that he could have run much faster in either of his last two "if asked" is something I don't buy.
Historically based on FACTS as you say, Ragozins guys have done vast studies(I dont know if TG and Jerry Brown have, I assume they have) on horses and their best and fastest races, and concluded solidly that hores run their fastest races under no pressure in "easy wins".
Its something I first became aware of in 1992, and have used that as a guideline ever since then, much to my advantage.
I also used to conclude off an easy win that a horse was "just jogging" or could have gone much faster, but I was wrong.
If you check out horses and their performances, they run their best races "while jogging". Smarty Jones preakness comes to mind. He earned his best number that day.
I'm not sold that he can go faster, but it may not be necessary for him to go faster on Cup Day.

[Seattleallstar]

I never got that Orahole, why is it they run these fast times while jogging then everyone says they have another gear and so on, they could of run faster. But then when they are finally being worked on and whipped to no end they do not end up running faster.

Originally Posted by oracle80

The notion that he could have run much faster in either of his last two "if asked" is something I don't buy.
Historically based on FACTS as you say, Ragozins guys have done vast studies(I dont know if TG and Jerry Brown have, I assume they have) on horses and their best and fastest races, and concluded solidly that hores run their fastest races under no pressure in "easy wins".
Its something I first became aware of in 1992, and have used that as a guideline ever since then, much to my advantage.
I also used to conclude off an easy win that a horse was "just jogging" or could have gone much faster, but I was wrong.
If you check out horses and their performances, they run their best races "while jogging". Smarty Jones preakness comes to mind. He earned his best number that day.
I'm not sold that he can go faster, but it may not be necessary for him to go faster on Cup Day.

I understand what you are saying and agree to a certain extent. But he hasnt needed to go fast. I certainly think he can go faster. I dont think he needs to go all that fast to win the Classic.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

The notion that he could have run much faster in either of his last two "if asked" is something I don't buy.
Historically based on FACTS as you say, Ragozins guys have done vast studies(I dont know if TG and Jerry Brown have, I assume they have) on horses and their best and fastest races, and concluded solidly that hores run their fastest races under no pressure in "easy wins".
Its something I first became aware of in 1992, and have used that as a guideline ever since then, much to my advantage.
I also used to conclude off an easy win that a horse was "just jogging" or could have gone much faster, but I was wrong.
If you check out horses and their performances, they run their best races "while jogging". Smarty Jones preakness comes to mind. He earned his best number that day.
I'm not sold that he can go faster, but it may not be necessary for him to go faster on Cup Day.

How would you explain a horse like Saint Liam then? He only ran his best numbers if heavily pressed (not that his others sucked).

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hadn't had the opp to chime in here and haven't read the whole thread, but it would seem pretty clear that Smarty Jones was by far closer to winning a crown than Afleet Alex.

While I consider any dual Classic winner who didn't win the third a "near miss", it's harder to make cases for those that don't win the Derby or Preakness than those that win the first two legs. Without the pressure of the three week lead-up to the Belmont, or even the pressure of going into the Preakness as the Derby winner, it's difficult to know how trainer and jock react. You also don't know who might have lined up in the races with different outcomes, etc.. The scenario of going into the Preakness with a Derby-winning Alex is totally different than that of them going in off the near miss at Louisville, etc..

Smarty Jones was yards away from a crown and would certainly have been a winner under a slightly revised race script that gets Elliott to avoid the harassment of Solis and Bailey so early and so long.

I actually like both horses and I understand what you are saying about going into the belmont. I was looking on the three races as a whole not as one then another, then the last one.

I guess AA's ability to get back up and win impressed me more. (Not that I am a dimwit and think he would have won by 20) He reminded me of Alysheba in the derby that day and I guess it stuck in my head.

I would though agree with anyone that REAL QUIET should be the one who has come the closest to winning the triple crown. He is my fave anyway.


And by the way, don't think I wasn't mad at how Solis rode in that Belmont!!!! I was very upset when Gary didn't come back to ride him. I knew then that he wasn't going to win, but I didn't expect that kind of ride from Solis.

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

I never got that Orahole, why is it they run these fast times while jogging then everyone says they have another gear and so on, they could of run faster. But then when they are finally being worked on and whipped to no end they do not end up running faster.

The whip will get you a length, tops, according to the finest jockeys.
Its a fallacy that the whip can get you so many lengths.
Also, most horses run best when they are free and running how they wanna run with no pressure alongside of them.
Its a different story when another horse gets in your face and you have to quicken NOW instead of when you wanna quicken.
I can't recall too many horses who "jogged" in a big stakes race who then came back and ran better in a dogfight.
If anyone can, name them.

[Seattleallstar]

hey Oracle ive mellowed out as of late, I think im a new man

Originally Posted by Sightseek

How would you explain a horse like Saint Liam then? He only ran his best numbers if heavily pressed (not that his others sucked).

I don't know that I agree with that.
His Foster was freaky fast on the sheets and he "jogged" in that race.

We all have our own opinions on particular horses, but to digress... I believe Bernardini will run huge in the BCC. Even the conservatives admire and respect this horse; people like Mike Watchmaker and Todd Pletcher are on the list.

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

hey Oracle ive mellowed out as of late, I think im a new man

I've heard this same story 1000 times. Go a month without a meltdown for a change and then we can talk about you being a new man. I sure wouldn't bet money on that.

[Seattleallstar]

I dont like or care to hear from Ashley anymore, ive had it

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

I dont like or care to hear from Ashley anymore, ive had it

We shall see... you are a glutton for punishment.

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

I dont like or care to hear from Ashley anymore, ive had it

Gee it only took you 4 years to see she couldn't care less about you?
I can tell you that we couldn't care less about her as well.
The fact that you still speak about her constantly means your obsession is alive and well.
Make sure you have your meds stocked up.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning

I am not trying to refute what you said or argue with you. I have only one point to make. I was at the Travers in 2004. It started raining about twenty minutes before the Travers; my husband and I were caught in the deluge as we walked to the track. We needed a row boat to navigate. I think the race was even run several minutes early, so we could not bet! We had just gotten to the track as it was being run. I had bet Birdstone in the Belmont, so I was going to put him in some big exactas. Anyway, my only point is that track seemed very off, so Birdstone won on a pea soup track that day.

I think your memory is a little bit off. I was at the track all day that day. Yes, there was a storm but it didnt start until AFTER the race. There was no soupy track. Now, it was pretty much a monsoon after it started but the race began as the dark clouds rolled ominously in and the thunder was crackling.

Yes, it began a few minutes before schedule and they loaded QUICKLY but that was to ensure that they did run on a dry track. Im sure you can find the find replay somewhere.

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I think your memory is a little bit off. I was at the track all day that day. Yes, there was a storm but it didnt start until AFTER the race. There was no soupy track. Now, it was pretty much a monsoon after it started but the race began as the dark clouds rolled ominously in and the thunder was crackling.

Yes, it began a few minutes before schedule and they loaded QUICKLY but that was to ensure that they did run on a dry track. Im sure you can find the find replay somewhere.

Track was dry and fast for that race. Pea Soup? Do you have alzheimer's?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I don't know that I agree with that.
His Foster was freaky fast on the sheets and he "jogged" in that race.

Did they adjust the Beyer for his race against Zapper? I thought it was higher than 114, which tied his best two performances while having the race all to himself:

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/saintliam.pdf

The Whitney was obscene. It is funny how people seem all the more ready to crown Bernardini as great and hated on Saint Liam when Bernie hasn't run a race like SL.