12/30-31 (AQU): Ausable Chasm Thursday, Lloydobler Friday!

[Kasept]

Race 1 Closer Look
By Brian Mulligan

Overtime Danny Boy
Aro one for 20 the last 5 years with MSW to maiden claiming moves; even on the drop, this is a tough sell as he was crushed the other time for a tag; the winner that day repeated in a $25K N2L, then lost next several; place horse in the February finale has won twice since, the last in a $16K N2L claimer in July; no speed, no asset; can't endorse.

Vamel
Good luck here; just too many chances to get overly excited about; can't be too happy about the beats vs. much softer either; he can flash zip at times, but has not done that since the 2010 opener; passing.

Lloydobler
Trainer 5 for 45 the last 5 years with MSW to maiden claiming moves with a median winning price of over $24; not a ton of speed in this fray so expect rider to send hard and hope for the best; he has the two races now to draw from and he ran okay on the surface early in the year; show horse 5/8 graduated 8 days later, was 2nd beaten just over a length in a N2L allowance since; connections would love to see him act like G3 winning over $200K half bro Sky Terrace.

Iguazu
Brown 2 for 14 the last 5 years with second off the layoff maiden claimers and 2 others ran 2nd; nice bit of training to have this guy fire off the extended layoff; note show horse was well clear; 4 for 12 dam banked almost $125K; both siblings won multiple times; top earner Boxer Shorts took 2 of 25, banked almost $65K; all systems go.

Komisarek
Nice rally last time despite bobbling when appearing to take a bad step; the stablemate looms the lone speed here and this guy will have the closer duties today; winenr of the debut repeated in a N1X spot, was a well beaten 2nd in a $75K stakes and recently third in a $25K optional here on 12/9; dam lost 11 times; 3 siblings banked 6 figures, the best may have been near $125K earner Peter's Puddles; strange work pattern with near month gaps, try to get a good look at this guy before teeing it up.

Forty Prayers
Soph has teased several times, should have his sea legs under him by now; like fact he flashed a bit more zip last time; slight improvement and he'll have a say in the outcome.

Baatesh
McLaughlin 6 for 32 the last 5 years with sophs making the MSW to maiden claiming move and 6 others ran 2nd; sometimes you either have to fish or cut bait; well, they are cutting on this $400K purchase; he seemed on the verge after missing by a neck upstate but runner really through in a clinker last time; winner 9/4 repeated in a N1X at Keeneland, won a $50K optional here, and was 4th beaten a length and a half in a Calder G3 on 12/4; place horse in last graduated in a MSW, held on by a head in a N1X spot with a 88 Beyer here 12/11; half sis and over $300K earner Resplendency was SP at 5; contender, far from a cinch.