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#1
03-12-2011, 08:44 PM
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Likelihood of winning the Derby
I put this together in about 13 minutes .....
Uncle Mo (24.25%) To Honor And Serve (8.25%) Soldat (7.5%) Premier Pegasus (7%) Dialed In (6.25%) Sway Away (4.25%) Mucho Macho Man (3.50%) Machen (3.50%) The Factor (3.25) Silver Medallion (3.25%) Jaycito (3%) Elite Alex (2.75%) Archarcharch (2.50%) Flashpoint (2.50%) Sweet Ducky (2%) Stay Thirsty (2%) Santiva (2%) Comma to the Top (1.5%) Rouge Romance (1.25%) Mr. Commons (1%) Gourmet Dinner (1%) Anthony's Cross (0.50%) Jp's Gusto (0.50%) Toby's Corner (0.50%) Astrology (0.34%) JJ's Lucky Train (0.33%) Bretheren (0.33%) The Rest: (5.00%) 
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#2
03-12-2011, 09:12 PM
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#3
03-12-2011, 09:25 PM
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San Vincete speed horses: The Factor The horse who finished dead last by 18+ Premier Pegasus (won by 7+ lengths today in San Felipe) San Vincente closers: Sway Away Surrey Star (finished 7th beaten double digit lengths in San Felipe today) However, does this race today improve The Factor's KY Derby chances? Not in my opinion. It does confirm his San Vincente win though. He's a very talented horse.
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#4
03-12-2011, 09:30 PM
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Personally, I'm high on the 1-2-3 San Vicente finishers as Ky Derby contenders.
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#5
03-12-2011, 10:39 PM
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Now that Rouge Romance had a foot bruise and will miss a little time - who is the new leader for most likely to finish 4th?
Jaycito made a strong case today. Comma to the Top might have won the Tampa Derby by 11 today.
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#7
03-12-2011, 10:46 PM
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Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them
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#8
03-12-2011, 10:48 PM
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I know - I give him a 1.25% chance of winning still.
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#11
03-13-2011, 05:44 PM
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Needless to say - I took a stab with Machen.
3/1 Uncle Mo (24.25%) 14/1 To Honor And Serve (8.25%) 13/1 Soldat (7.5%) 7/2f Premier Pegasus (7%) 11/1 Dialed In (6.25%) 18/1 Sway Away (4.25%) 29/1 Mucho Macho Man (3.50%) 68/1 Machen (3.50%) 32/1 The Factor (3.25) 31/1 Silver Medallion (3.25%) 16/1 Jaycito (3%) 31/1 Elite Alex (2.75%) 50/1 Archarcharch (2.50%) 7/2f Flashpoint (2.50%) 75/1 Sweet Ducky (2%) 25/1 Stay Thirsty (2%) 31/1 Santiva (2%) 85/1 Comma to the Top (1.5%) 36/1 Rouge Romance (1.25%) 7/2f Mr. Commons (1%) 42/1 Gourmet Dinner (1%) 45/1 Anthony's Cross (0.50%) 61/1 Jp's Gusto (0.50%) 7/2f Toby's Corner (0.50%) 53/1 Astrology (0.34%) 7/2f JJ's Lucky Train (0.33%) 30/1 Bretheren (0.33%) 7/2f The Rest: (5.00%)
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#12
03-14-2011, 04:51 PM
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IMO, your 5% estimate for "The Rest" is much too low. Here is 11 years of data on the percentage of the Derby Day pool that was contributed by bets on horses that were "All Others" in Pool 2: 2010 52% 2009 28% 2008 43% 2007 19% 2006 24% 2005 37% 2004 16% 2003 42% 2002 35% 2001 26% 2000 28% The average amount contributed by "All Others" is 32%. The smallest was 16%. Unless there is some weird bias on Derby Day that involves whether or not a horse was listed in Pool2, 32% should be a ballpark figure for the average chance of a Pool2 "All Others" horse to win the race*. If we assume all 5 of the non-Pool2 horses in your list make it to the Derby, you give them a 11.83% combined chance to win. Adding your 5% for "The Rest" brings it up to 16.83%. That would be way below the 32% average share of the Derby Day pool that "All Others" horses have enjoyed. I think 10-15% is a better guess at the chance of your The Rest group to win the race. --Dunbar *There is in fact a bias that might make the 32% fig a bit too high of an estimate--the favorite/longshot bias. More longshots will generally come from the "All Others" group, and these longshots are usually overbet. But that effect is not enough, IMO, to bring the 32% ave into line with your effective 16.33% estimate for this year's Pool 2 "All Others" group. Last year, the 3 Derby favs were listed entries from Pool 2. But the next 6 lowest odds horses were from "All Others". The longest odds horse, Discreetly Mine, was a listed entry, not an "All Others".
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#13
03-14-2011, 05:06 PM
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I gave the field a 16% chance of winning - not 5%.
Some of the field horses had percentages by them.
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#14
03-14-2011, 09:15 PM
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__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#15
03-14-2011, 09:22 PM
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Probably not.
As for my handicapping of DT's board demographics.... Race: 86% White 6% African American 4% Asian 4% Other Gender: 94% Male 6% Female Sexual Orientation: 59% Homosexual 25% Heterosexual 11% Bisexual 4.8% Beast fetish 0.2% SCUDS Religion: 41% Jewish 59% Other Political Affilation: 47% Republican 34% Democrat 11% Independent 8% Other Median Income: $39,832
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#16
03-14-2011, 09:24 PM
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Huh? That's exactly what I said you did. I used the figure 16.83% for what you gave Pool 2's "All Others". I wrote: Quote:
I don't have any reason to think that you've capped your five Pool 2 field horses incorrectly. So I attributed the shortfall to what you called "The Rest", suggesting that 10-15% would be a better fig than 5%. (That would have brought the total chance for the Pool 2 Field up to around 22-27%.) I shoulld more broadly have written that somewhere among your five Pool 2 field horses AND "The Rest" there is a 5-10% shortfall predicted by the number and quality of Pool 2 "All Others" horses that have made it to the Derby starting gate the past 11 years. There are 300+ horses nominated to the TC. Some that are obscure at the time of past Future Wagers have suddenly become major players in the Derby. It's hard to put a figure on the Field's chances any other way than looking at historical data. I'm sure someone else could look at it differently, but I feel pretty confident in the way I'm looking at it. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#17
03-14-2011, 09:37 PM
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I assumed wrong from your first line and didn't read the whole thing.
A lot of longshots in the Derby are gigantic overlays - some call it the Giacomo factor or whatever. It would take a magical sudden form reversal for something included in "the rest" to look like contenders - and with the way prep races are being more and more spaced ... they only have a shot or two to get the graded earnings. A horse like Bind is not being pointed - he might be one of the two or three most talented of them all.
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#18
03-15-2011, 12:10 AM
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More than 41% of DT is Jewish.
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#19
03-15-2011, 12:23 AM
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Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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#20
03-15-2011, 12:35 AM
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Linear Mode
