Weekend Beyers

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

San Felipe: 98 (+26) 98 (+17) 94 (+7) 91

Tampa Bay Derby: 73 (+1) 75 (-4) 82 (-1) 86

Uncle Mo: 51 (-26) 59 (-24) 71 (-15) 89 WOW

Ok - so Uncle Mo ran a 71 Moss for 6fs - that translates to running a 41 Beyer.

Comma to the Top (I believe the San Felipe leader after 6fs) ran a 94 Moss after 6fs - which translates to a 104 Beyer.

Bretheran (if memory serves) was the 6f leader in the Tampa Bay Derby. He ran a Moss of 82 - which means he ran a 71 Beyer for 6fs.

In other words - had Uncle Mo run in the San Felipe - he would have trailed Comma to the Top by 25.5 lengths with just 2.5 furlongs to go.


You can't say enough good things about Comma to the Tops performance - and enough bad things about the ride he got. Not many horses can run a 104 Beyer for 6f - after going 3-to-4 wide on the first turn. His late fade should be understandable to anyone.

Just like with humans - horses run to the best of their ability when they are allowed to run at an efficent rate of speed from start to finish.

An olympic quality miler won't post his best time by jogging 3 laps and sprinting the final one - nor will they post their best time by sprinting like Ussain Bolt from the start of the 1st lap.

Premier Pegasus chased The Factor in the San Vincente through cooking fast fractions - and he faded late. He simply used his speed more efficently on the stretch-out. The pace might have been too fast for everyone else. A plodder like Jaycito should have been much further back than he was.

[tjfla]

Comma to the Top ran big after sticking with them however if that race was any longer,he would have been in major trouble. No way he can run like that in a 1 1/8 mile race let the Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Comma to the Top ran big after sticking with them however if that race was any longer,he would have been in major trouble. No way he can run like that in a 1 1/8 mile race let the Derby.

Spoken like someone who losses a lot more than takeout.

Comma to the Top would obliterate a lot of horses in that field at 9fs or futher. He's a horse that can be rated - and when rated - would use his speed a lot more efficently.

Everything in that race - including the winner - was stopping late. Comma to the Top was only stopping at a more severe rate because he actually did some real running.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Spoken like someone who losses a lot more than takeout.

Comma to the Top would obliterate a lot of horses in that field at 9fs or futher. He's a horse that can be rated - and when rated - would use his speed a lot more efficently.

Everything in that race - including the winner - was stopping late. Comma to the Top was only stopping at a more severe rate because he actually did some real running.

So if the San Felipe was 1 1/8 he would have stayed in 4th??? I am saying that if he goes out like that in a longer race that he would have been dead. I liked the way he ran

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He was sent - Runflatout was triple sent - and Albergatti refused to rate. When one goes out fast - it almost always quickens the rest of the pack.

It's why Euro's run rabbits they call "pace makers" in almost all of the big races over there. It's why Better Talk Now always ran better when he had that stupid Shake The Bank rabbit in with him.

He will never go that fast in a two-turn route race again for the rest of his career.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Spoken like someone who losses a lot more than takeout.

Comma to the Top would obliterate a lot of horses in that field at 9fs or futher. He's a horse that can be rated - and when rated - would use his speed a lot more efficently.

Everything in that race - including the winner - was stopping late. Comma to the Top was only stopping at a more severe rate because he actually did some real running.

If you take everything into account, Comma to the Top ran really well. I think you need to forgive horses that stopped in routes there this last weekend. Yea, he was close to fast pace, but the track was also not favoring the front in routes. Preamble made about the same move as P.P. did the day before. Not saying P.P. didn't run great. Just saying Comma ran a lot better than people think he did. He ran so much better than Jaycito (for instance.) Under different circumstances, Comma would of been very difficult to run down. I see the 2 efforts (Comma and P.P.) as being pretty close.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yeah man, I really don't know what people see when they watch a race sometimes. PP ran out of his skin, and Jaycito, well, he was Jaycito.

i'm thinking the same thing....pace, set-ups or whatever the winner won by lightyears...people are talking like that race was close....it was not even. face it, that was the performance of the weekend by far for 3 yo's...and thats not even close either. what race are these people watching?????????????? yeah....jaycito and comma to the top ran great......getting their teeth kicked in......

[RockHardTen1985]

I dont understand why Jaycito sucks, but a horse like Pluck needed a race??? Same exact layoff.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i'm thinking the same thing....pace, set-ups or whatever the winner won by lightyears...people are talking like that race was close....it was not even. face it, that was the performance of the weekend by far for 3 yo's...and thats not even close either. what race are these people watching?????????????? yeah....jaycito and comma to the top ran great......getting their teeth kicked in......

Dude, Comma to the Top ran a tons better race than Jaycito. You cannot compare those two fairly.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Dude, Comma to the Top ran a tons better race than Jaycito. You cannot compare those two fairly.

i know, but i'm just saying the winner was tons last week. people just won't admit he ran a hole in the wind....he looked better than uncle mo did so now people will down grade this horse. put it this way, IF that horse stretches out yet again in the SA derby.....look out. comma to the top ran his eyballs out but at this point that proves nothing...other that hes in trouble. if a horse can't relax at some point. good luck moving forward. the easy leads get harder and harder to come by. then i read on some other site that the horse(premier pegusus) has to run a lot better to be a serious contender....i had to laugh...better than what? brethren? to honor and serve? jaycito ? who he just ate for lunch? pace set up? doesn't the derby go 23 or under every year? or does it go 26 like the rat race uncle mo was in? like i said what races do these people watch?

[NTamm1215]

It cannot be preached enough, and this thread illustrates it perfectly, that if you're analyzing performances and not taking into consideration how the race is run then in the long run you're going to have very little success betting on thoroughbred racing.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i know, but i'm just saying the winner was tons last week. people just won't admit he ran a hole in the wind....he looked better than uncle mo did so now people will down grade this horse. put it this way, IF that horse stretches out yet again in the SA derby.....look out. comma to the top ran his eyballs out but at this point that proves nothing...other that hes in trouble. if a horse can't relax at some point. good luck moving forward. the easy leads get harder and harder to come by. then i read on some other site that the horse(premier pegusus) has to run a lot better to be a serious contender....i had to laugh...better than what? brethren? to honor and serve? jaycito ? who he just ate for lunch? pace set up? doesn't the derby go 23 or under every year? or does it go 26 like the rat race uncle mo was in? like i said what races do these people watch?

I'll agree with you that PP ran lights out, and that he's the most obvious threat to Uncle Mo, but watching Mo, I came away from watching that race with a slightly different take than others. Yeah, he got a real soft field and pace, but, considering how the race was ran, he looked awesome and is still the horse to beat.

That race kind of reminded me of when FuPeg toyed with The Deputy at SA.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i know, but i'm just saying the winner was tons last week. people just won't admit he ran a hole in the wind....he looked better than uncle mo did so now people will down grade this horse. put it this way, IF that horse stretches out yet again in the SA derby.....look out. comma to the top ran his eyballs out but at this point that proves nothing...other that hes in trouble. if a horse can't relax at some point. good luck moving forward. the easy leads get harder and harder to come by. then i read on some other site that the horse(premier pegusus) has to run a lot better to be a serious contender....i had to laugh...better than what? brethren? to honor and serve? jaycito ? who he just ate for lunch? pace set up? doesn't the derby go 23 or under every year? or does it go 26 like the rat race uncle mo was in? like i said what races do these people watch?

I dare you to have an opinion pre race. You're always so smart after the fact, but you're never around before races. Why is that?

[HaloWishingwell]

why are we comparing apples and oranges? Do one really think Uncle Mo would have run that slow early on if he was in the San Felipe race? He ran against misidentified animals which called horses and Velazquez knew all he had to do was not slip off the saddle.

[iamthelurker]

Comma To the Top is going to be a nice horse, just not a Kentucky Derby horse. The Derby is not a slowly run race. 9/10 times your going to see the half go faster than 48 flat. In some cases the derby will be as fast as a 45 half. And if you want to name Aaron Gryder on your horse, you have the possibility of seeing a 44 and change half. This scenario plus the likely probability that CNak or whoever they put on him will be chasing 3 or 4 wide into the first turn destroys any chance CTTT has of winning on May 7th.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

Comma To the Top is going to be a nice horse, just not a Kentucky Derby horse. The Derby is not a slowly run race. 9/10 times your going to see the half go faster than 48 flat. In some cases the derby will be as fast as a 45 half. And if you want to name Aaron Gryder on your horse, you have the possibility of seeing a 44 and change half. This scenario plus the likely probability that CNak or whoever they put on him will be chasing 3 or 4 wide into the first turn destroys any chance CTTT has of winning on May 7th.

See post #27

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I dont understand why Jaycito sucks, but a horse like Pluck needed a race??? Same exact layoff.

Did Baffert say (before the race) that he needed one? From what I've seen (i.e., his comebacker the Sunday before,) his horses don't usually need a race. This horse has a lil choppy stride, and is eggbeatin' with his left front. The most positive thing about the horse is that his 2 trainers have really liked him, and his pa could run 12f. Don't like eggbeaters going past 9f, but we will see.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It cannot be preached enough, and this thread illustrates it perfectly, that if you're analyzing performances and not taking into consideration how the race is run then in the long run you're going to have very little success betting on thoroughbred racing.

In this case, a doorknob only understands "two turns" unrelated to horsey racing;open/close.

It's like the last PennState/Wisconsin basketball game.

Don't tell them about the fix alerts in the Dow.




-Alan-