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#1
05-12-2011, 07:41 AM
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5/12: Churchill (P6/Hi-5 C/O's); Hollywood (P5/P6 C/O's)
Another Derby, another carryover bonanza left in its' wake. $515k P6 and $220k Hi-5 pots lay in wait Thursday on an approachable series of races at the Downs. Meanwhile, Hollywood has its' own pair of bonus pools with remainders of $107k in the P5 and $91k in the sextet. Thoughts below, with Marty McGee visiting ATR at 9:30a to preview the Kentucky jackpots.
Good day of racing Wednesday at Belmont with a great deal of success on the first half of the card as the $240+ early P4 and a $70 overlay P3 on races 2-4 helped build a nice cushion. Tough to find $60 winner of the 6th derailed the late P4. Hope you did well! CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super) $515k P6 Carryover Starts Here.. Most Likely: #8 Donnaguska 7-2 2nd Best Value: #12 Dreymore 8-1 3rd Next Best: #7 Gaelic Lass 3-1 WON ($4.80) Super Add: #11 Lookslikelove 12-1 6th 6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Muhaaseb 7-2 4th Next Best: #4 Gypsy Wind 3-1 7th Best Value: #2 Awesome Review 8-1 WON ($12.00) Super Add: #8 Devine Revelation 5-1 8th 7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Patine 7-2 8th Best Value: #3 Little Bit Tiny 12-1 6th Next Best: #11 Anabaa's Fortune 9-2 WON ($11.80) Exotics Use: #5 She Can Fly 4-1 5th 8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Cherry Included 9-5 WON ($4.60) Best Value: #6 Rollin Jai Jai 10-1 8th Next Best: #8 Starkey 6-1 9th Super Add: #9 China Melissa 8-1 7th 9th: CLM, 3+, 5f-T (DD, Super) Best Value: #3 Parioli's Trick 5-1 3rd Next Best: #5 Free Brave 3-1 4th Exotics Use: #1 Lookn Mighty Fast 7-2 2nd Super Add: #4 Tangled Sheets 4-1 WON ($13.20) 10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5) $220k Hi-5 Carryover.. Most Likely: #7 Tactical Man 4-1 8th Best Value: #4 Miami Rockstar 10-1 6th Next Best: #6 Cowboy Sam 5-1 10th Exotics Use: #3 Waylon's Ghost 20-1 11th Hi-5 Play: #9 Blue Solitude 6-1 3rd <$100 Super Hi-5 Play: A: 7 B: 4-6 C: 3-4-6 D: 3-4-6-7-9 E: All 1x2x2x3x7 = $84 <$100 P6 Play: 5: 7-8-12 6: 4-9 7: 3-4 8: 3 9: 3-5 10: 4-7 3x2x2x1x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 3-4-5-7-11 8: 3-6 9: 1-3-5 10: 3-4-6-7-9 5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75 HOLLYWOOD PARK POST-SCRATCHES 1st: CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super) $107k .50 P5 Carryover Starts Here.. Most Likely: #5 Roulette It Roll 5-2 - Best Value: #3 Desperate Measures 5-1 WON ($6.20) Next Best: #1 Meter Me Gone 9-5 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Diamond Journey 12-1 4th 2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #4 All the Love 3-1 WON ($9.40) Next Best: #3 Moonstruck Maya 9-5 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Going for a Spin 8-5 3rd Super Add: #5 Miss Mittagong 6-1 5th 3rd: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 4.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super) $91k $2 P6 Carryover Starts Here.. Most Likely: #5 Gogi 2-1 WON ($5.80) Best Value: #4 Vicki Victoria 8-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Dolphin Bay 7-2 Super Add: #9 Molly's All Heart 3-1 4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 Party Ruler 4-1 - Next Best: #8 Free From My Ex 5-1 4th Exotics Use: #9 You Little Devil 20-1 3rd Super Add: #4 Nisus 5-2 WON ($12.20) 5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Vikkilee 2-1 4th Next Best: #9 Marrymeonemoretime 9-2 3rd Best Value: #2 Entabeni 8-1 2nd Super Add: #3 Sleep Tight 7-2 WON ($9.40) <$75 P5 Play: 1: 1-3-5 2: 3-4 3: 2-4-5 4: 6-8 5: 2-3-8-9 3x2x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Afleet Deal 4-1 3rd Best Value: #6 Gallant Gent 10-1 5th Next Best: #3 Star Nicholas 6-1 2nd 7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super) Best Value: #3 Kate's Event 9-2 5th Next Best: #2 Cigar Man 7-2 4th Exotics Use: #4 Burj Dubai 2-1 3rd Super Add: #6 Uh Oh Bango 5-2 WON ($8.00) 8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #3 Gutshot Straight 7-5 WON ($3.00) Best Value: #2 Gifted Student 10-1 4th Exotics Use: #10 Cabo San Lucas 7-2 3rd Super Add: #8 Smokin Bomb 15-1 2nd <$150 P6 Play: 3: 4-5 4: 6 5: 2-3-8-9 6: 1-3-6 7: 2-3-4 8: 3 2x1x4x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144 <$50 P4 Play: 5: 2-3-8-9 6: 1-3-6 7: 2-3-4 8: 2-3 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-12-2011 at 07:57 PM. 
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#2
05-12-2011, 12:13 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
05-12-2011, 02:35 PM
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For play-along purposes only (not home to play for real)
Hollywood pick 5 1,5 3,6 2,5,9 2,6,7,8 3,8,9 $72 bucks Good Luck
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Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#5
05-12-2011, 03:06 PM
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Total CD P6 Pool; $2,105,465
$1.6 million -- 3x original pool-- bet in today
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
05-12-2011, 03:44 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#8
05-12-2011, 04:48 PM
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That was a masterpiece by Cornelio in the BEL 8th.
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#9
05-12-2011, 04:49 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#15
05-12-2011, 06:55 PM
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Nice Root
 
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#17
05-13-2011, 08:24 AM
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Quote:
Congrats. That was a terrific score and exactly the kind of boost needed with the widespread investments yesterday. Personally, I was thrilled with the $39 conso from the P5...  Nisus. Uggh. Why does this type of chronic career maiden seem to decide to win during important carryover sequences?
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#18
05-13-2011, 09:28 AM
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Thank you Steve. I used Nisus the last 3 times at SA, and stuck around one more time as I thought he might like returning to the All-Weather surface. My top pick was the #2 Last Memories, who was the Puype firster with good works. First he broke his bridle at the gate, then he got bumped around pretty bad in teh lane. I protected in that race so hit pk5 and missed pk6...was SHOCKED at the payout of the pk5. That was by far the best betting sequence in the day, as the 50cent option made it a good value.
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#19
05-13-2011, 04:39 PM
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great payouts on both the p5 and p6 yesterday...wish i would have saved some money from the derby!
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