5/21 (PIM): Preakness (G1), DuPont, Sprint, Gallorette, Schaefer (G3's)

slotdirt · #1 05-18-2011, 04:30 PM

A lot of folks thought there'd be pace a couple weeks ago. I hope the pace conjecture actually comes to fruition this time.

hockey2315 · #2 05-18-2011, 07:23 PM

Looking at her competition, besides Shared Account, there isn't much in the race to take money, but I think Desert Sage is VERY good. She's this year's Aruna.

cakes44 · #3 05-19-2011, 07:28 AM

Saratoga Red going against decent elders?

DWL sure is a desperate slut on TC days.

slotdirt · #4 05-19-2011, 07:34 AM

The Schaefer isn't such a bad little race, is it? As always, nice card on Preakness today. Unfortunately, I presume it will be the usual Preakness day chalkfest.

blackthroatedwind · #5 05-19-2011, 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Looking at her competition, besides Shared Account, there isn't much in the race to take money, but I think Desert Sage is VERY good. She's this year's Aruna.

Seriously? Have you taken a close look at who she has beaten?

I think she's going to burn a LOT of money in subsequent starts. I understand given the overall quality of Saturday's race she may get a piece, and she was able to overcome dynamics last time, but she beat absolutely nothing. I understand how the pace affected the race but I still side with the poor field quality to judge her.

OldDog · #6 05-19-2011, 08:57 AM

I hope to see good races out of Life At Ten and Paddy O'Prado.

hockey2315 · #7 05-19-2011, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Seriously? Have you taken a close look at who she has beaten?

I think she's going to burn a LOT of money in subsequent starts. I understand given the overall quality of Saturday's race she may get a piece, and she was able to overcome dynamics last time, but she beat absolutely nothing. I understand how the pace affected the race but I still side with the poor field quality to judge her.

Performing isn't terrible even though she's not overly classy - she won by 4 1/2 next out and then won one of the races on the big carryover day. . . but I agree - Desert Sage hasn't beaten much. I have a hard time tying her to the fields she ran against, though, because she beat them so easily and while coming home extremely quickly with less-than-advantageous set-ups. I refuse to swallow 4-5 on the very overrated Shared Account--even though she still towers over these on paper--and think there's enough of a chance that Desert Sage is as good as she looked to me visually to key her hard against the chalk. I guess I still have to use Shared Account, though. These races kind of suck compared to Churchill's Derby Day card. . .

jms62 · #8 05-19-2011, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Performing isn't terrible even though she's not overly classy - she won by 4 1/2 next out and then won one of the races on the big carryover day. . . but I agree - Desert Sage hasn't beaten much. I have a hard time tying her to the fields she ran against, though, because she beat them so easily and while coming home extremely quickly with less-than-advantageous set-ups. I refuse to swallow 4-5 on the very overrated Shared Account--even though she still towers over these on paper--and think there's enough of a chance that Desert Sage is as good as she looked to me visually to key her hard against the chalk. I guess I still have to use Shared Account, though. These races kind of suck compared to Churchill's Derby Day card. . .

I charted the last 4 Preakness day cards and they were very chalky to the point of being almost unplayable. A few bombs hit last year but it was truly the exception... The Blackeyse Susan / Preakness double has paid well though.

ateamstupid · #9 05-19-2011, 08:26 PM

Obviously Paddy is the horse to beat in the Dixie, but if he missteps off the break, I think Baryshnikov has a big shot.

Dahoss · #10 05-19-2011, 08:41 PM

Quite an undercard for the Preakness...

somerfrost · #11 05-21-2011, 09:08 AM

11-10-9....chalky but what the heck.

keithting · #12 05-21-2011, 10:58 AM

Since I visited the 3M farm last week - I'm going 9-11-1

Safe trip & best of luck to all contestants.....

blackthroatedwind · #13 05-19-2011, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Performing isn't terrible even though she's not overly classy - she won by 4 1/2 next out and then won one of the races on the big carryover day. . . but I agree - Desert Sage hasn't beaten much. I have a hard time tying her to the fields she ran against, though, because she beat them so easily and while coming home extremely quickly with less-than-advantageous set-ups. I refuse to swallow 4-5 on the very overrated Shared Account--even though she still towers over these on paper--and think there's enough of a chance that Desert Sage is as good as she looked to me visually to key her hard against the chalk. I guess I still have to use Shared Account, though. These races kind of suck compared to Churchill's Derby Day card. . .

I don't disagree that taking a short price on Shared Account is difficult. She's not as good as BC Turf Distaff should suggest. But she's still pretty good, and basically every race she ran last year towers over this field. Given the quality of this field, it seems a mistake to go fishing for horses that are simply very unlikely to beat her. All she has, theoretically, against her is the layoff. However, she ran well in this race last year off a layoff. Well enough, in fact, to easily handle this field.

slotdirt · #14 05-20-2011, 10:59 AM

Crist on the Preakness:

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-pi...animal-kingdom

If the timer can be believed, Shackleford led the Derby field through an opening six furlongs in 1:13.40, the slowest such split in the Derby since 1947, when the track was officially rated slow and Jet Pilot’s winning time was 2:06 4/5 – nearly five full seconds off Animal Kingdom’s 2:02.04. Dialed In was 19th and last after that slow fraction, 18 1/2 lengths behind the leader. Half a mile later, he had passed 11 of his 18 rivals to be beaten 7 1/2 lengths, running a sizzling final half-mile in slightly less than 47 seconds. The only faster final Derby half-mile anyone can find was Secretariat’s 46 3/5 in 1973.

Sightseek · #15 05-21-2011, 05:19 PM

Oh boy...Dance City and Shakleford not behaving well..

philcski · #16 05-19-2011, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Performing isn't terrible even though she's not overly classy - she won by 4 1/2 next out and then won one of the races on the big carryover day. . . but I agree - Desert Sage hasn't beaten much. I have a hard time tying her to the fields she ran against, though, because she beat them so easily and while coming home extremely quickly with less-than-advantageous set-ups. I refuse to swallow 4-5 on the very overrated Shared Account--even though she still towers over these on paper--and think there's enough of a chance that Desert Sage is as good as she looked to me visually to key her hard against the chalk. I guess I still have to use Shared Account, though. These races kind of suck compared to Churchill's Derby Day card. . .

I don't really understand why you think Desert Sage has any chance to win here. She was an absolute pig in Europe, gets the Chad Brown magic juice, and suddenly is a world beater?

hockey2315 · #17 05-19-2011, 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I don't really understand why you think Desert Sage has any chance to win here. She was an absolute pig in Europe, gets the Chad Brown magic juice, and suddenly is a world beater?

She looks like a pretty obvious bleeder. . . not that I'm really concerned at all with her Euro form. Who cares if it was the Chad Brown juice (not that it is)? I was very impressed with her two starts at Gulfstream. . . I guess I'm the only person on the planet who was. That makes me happy. I'll still use some Shared Account and maybe a little No Explaining as a back-up.

Scav · #18 05-19-2011, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

She looks like a pretty obvious bleeder. . . not that I'm really concerned at all with her Euro form. Who cares if it was the Chad Brown juice (not that it is)? I was very impressed with her two starts at Gulfstream. . . I guess I'm the only person on the planet who was. That makes me happy. I'll still use some Shared Account and maybe a little No Explaining as a back-up.

Please explain how you can tell if she is a bleeder from PP's

MisterB · #19 05-19-2011, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Looking at her competition, besides Shared Account, there isn't much in the race to take money, but I think Desert Sage is VERY good. She's this year's Aruna.

If you look at the race which will require a horse with a good late pace fig, DS towers over the field by 15 points. Coming off 2 wins is a good sign, not a bad sign. The money burner will be the fave. Sometimes people can't see beyond their finger tips.

blackthroatedwind · #20 05-19-2011, 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterB

If you look at the race which will require a horse with a good late pace fig, DS towers over the field by 15 points. Coming off 2 wins is a good sign, not a bad sign. The money burner will be the fave. Sometimes people can't see beyond their finger tips.

Yeah, what do I know. I sure haven't picked any winners lately.

Your posts should be followed by a disclaimer.