Biggest "Class" edge ever in an entry-level ALW race?

[Calzone Lord]

Believe it or not - this horse below qualified for an N1X ALW race at PID on Saturday (The winning Beyer Par for PID N1X's Alw races is 80 - the purse is $41,000)





Future Prospect - winner of 11 prior races including a state bred Saratoga stakes race - once favored over Haynesfield in a 250K stake - and a last out winner of a major circuit Opt Claimer...

And he's an entry-level alw horse at PID because all state bred wins are excluded - as are all OPT Claiming wins so long as you went in for the tag.

Never in my life have I seen an established horse with such a giant speed figure edge before. His last 3 figure TOWERED over everyone. 10 of his last 12 figures towered over everyone. Typical half-assed job making him 3/1 on the morning line. He paid $3.40, $2.80, and $2.60 and I would have expected $2.20, $2.10, and $2.10


Believe it or not .... this is what the 4-to-1 second choice in the betting looked like:



He was 3rd in a $7,500 N4L at 8/1 odds three starts back.

[philcski]

Future Prospect was a real nice NYB a few years ago. Good read of the condition book by the trainer to get him in for the easy purse.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

Good read of the condition book by the trainer to get him in for the easy purse.

Yeah - if they gave an Eclipse Award for sharpest placement of a horse this season - his trainer would probably win it.

41K for a race you have to fall down to lose - with no risk of getting claimed... with a horse who had been running for a tag.

The Millionaire Naughty NewYorker is an N2X at PID. He's one Red Smith away from still having his entry level ALW condition. It would be AWESOME to see a millionaire with a dozen wins in an N1X.

A horse could sweep the Canadian Triple Crown - and still have its N1X here.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah - if they gave an Eclipse Award for sharpest placement of a horse this season - his trainer would probably win it.

41K for a race you have to fall down to lose - with no risk of getting claimed... with a horse who had been running for a tag.

The Millionaire Naughty NewYorker is an N2X at PID. He's one Red Smith away from still having his entry level ALW condition. It would be AWESOME to see a millionaire with a dozen wins in an N1X.

A horse could sweep the Canadian Triple Crown - and still have its N1X here.

I bet him in that race, LOL.

The statebred rule applies in almost all jurisdictions, like in NY if a NYB runs through its statebred alw conditions it can still run in an N1X. The question by jurisdiction is whether if in an AOC if entered for the tag and wins it still is eligible for the allowance.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

The statebred rule applies in almost all jurisdictions, like in NY if a NYB runs through its statebred alw conditions it can still run in an N1X.

I thought it only applied per state to In-State state bred races.

For instance - In NY - could a horse who goes through his Cal Bred conditions - and wins Cal Bred Stakes run in an N1X at Belmont?

Do restricted races like the Sunshine Millions or Queen's Plate count against ALW conditions in places like NY or Cal?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I thought it only applied per state to In-State state bred races.

For instance - In NY - could a horse who goes through his Cal Bred conditions - and wins Cal Bred Stakes run in an N1X at Belmont? Yes. And vice versa. I've seen it with NJ-breds quite a bit in NY in the winter when they're not running (and generally not competitive down south.)

Do restricted races like the Sunshine Millions or Queen's Plate count against ALW conditions in places like NY or Cal? No. Although in the case of the Sunshine Millions almost all the winners have already gone through conditions so it doesn't often apply. I do know that there was that maiden winner of the 3rd leg of the Canadian Triple Crown back entered in an N2X at Saratoga a year later... forgot the name though.

...

[Calzone Lord]

This horse is like your classic textbook PID horse for course:



* Never ran a Beyer higher than 42 on dirt - and gets smoked at Thistle.

* Turf breeding and lots of early speed <--- very key.

* Whenever he gets an inside draw or makes an easy lead - look out. He has wins at 16/1, 19/1, and 28/1 and a nose defeat at 9/1 under those conditions.

* Whenever he gets an outside draw or can't control the pace - he gets stomped.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I thought it only applied per state to In-State state bred races.

For instance - In NY - could a horse who goes through his Cal Bred conditions - and wins Cal Bred Stakes run in an N1X at Belmont?

Do restricted races like the Sunshine Millions or Queen's Plate count against ALW conditions in places like NY or Cal?

Non-NY state-bred allowance wins do not count against ALW conditions in New York. For some reason, I believe that restricted stakes wins are treated differently, but not 100% sure.

[robfla]

I was just looking at the charts for PID. One heckuva pool they have there!!

pick 3 pool = between $518 - $1,107

pick 4 pool = $1,125

pick 6 pool = $158 ( carryover = $930 )

I can only imagine what the readership of the Erie Post/Times/Herald's Horse racing section is?


of course these are weekend numbers...weekdays HAVE to be more because not much action elsewhere

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by robfla

of course these are weekend numbers...weekdays HAVE to be more because not much action elsewhere

Yes - They handle almost nothing on Saturday.

Tuesday and Wed are the big days - Tuesdays especially - because TVG shows them.

PID is a big hit on Betfair for some odd reason. It's not uncommon to see 40 or 50K matched-up on a PID race. Probably the only track where Betfair action beats total handle.

[MISTERGEE]

Calzone, speaking of class edge did you happen to see the entry of Count On Buddy in the 5th on Wedn? Loses a 50k purse alw race by a nose and now comes back in a 12,500 claimer where he seems the best by 8 lengths or more. Listed at 2-1, I would guess more like 3/5

[Calzone Lord]

That is obviously a big drop and they are putting the "for sale" sign on.

Hardly anything ever gets claimed here... and there's no tax on claims either.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

Calzone, speaking of class edge did you happen to see the entry of Count On Buddy in the 5th on Wedn? Loses a 50k purse alw race by a nose and now comes back in a 12,500 claimer where he seems the best by 8 lengths or more. Listed at 2-1, I would guess more like 3/5

He and another horse are scratched - most likely just entered to "make the race go" as a favor to someone else -and with no intention of ever running.

There was a horse in yesterday's 6th race - a 5k claimer - that was similar - basically had 8-to-10 lengths on everyone else and had to fall down to lose. They scratched him - he was one of three scratches from the race - and that's how a 5K time restricted claimer went with just six horses.

[Calzone Lord]

Here's one in tomorrow with a good class edge - I regretfully admit I made him 'Best Bet' of the day - he beat a couple of horses in an open 500K stakes race for older males less than two months ago -- in for $7,500 N4L



Winning Beyer Par for $7,500 N4L is a 69 -- he exceeded that number in a tough 25K claimer last out - and his 61 sprinting was better than looked against a very tough race shape. Only made him best bet because I think it's a proper class drop and not a bad drop because of issues.

He has the wrong style for PID. Not a speed horse. But it shouldn't matter.

He only finished like 3 lengths behind Dark Cove at CNL - who they ran in the Hollywood Gold Cup next out.

[philcski]

Going back to our discussion of qualifying for allowances, how did this horse get in an N1X at Penn Nat?

[Calzone Lord]

I looked up the result chart -- it was a time restricted N1X...

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...10430&raceNo=5


Weird - you don't see that type of race often - if ever.

The DRF should have a symbol like N1Xy instead of N1X for a race like that.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by philcski

Going back to our discussion of qualifying for allowances, how did this horse get in an N1X at Penn Nat?

Funny you should mention this, Phil.

Presque Isle has the exact same type of race tomororw. A "Non winners of one of than maiden, claiming, starter, or statebred in 2011"

Gayego - 3rd in last years Breeders Cup Dirt Mile - and earner of over $1.7 million is running in it.

Time-restricted N1X races, Non-time restricted Starter ALW races, at least the racing office folks are being creative in PA.